further proof why you do not minraise

joosebuck · Jun 4, 2007

pokerstars Game #10262580132: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/06/04 - 04:18:51 (ET)
Table 'Hohensteina' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: WHITE SCHARK ($51.55 in chips)
Seat 3: MonsterKing ($100 in chips)
Seat 4: thialf ($96 in chips)
Seat 5: ravensong440 ($61.50 in chips)
Seat 6: joosebucklol ($117.55 in chips)
Seat 8: paul_alen ($98 in chips)
Seat 9: Allinman23 ($121.75 in chips)
paul_alen: posts small blind $0.50
Allinman23: posts big blind $1
JP917: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [8s 9s]
WHITE SCHARK: folds
MonsterKing: folds
thialf: folds
ravensong440: folds
joosebucklol: raises $3 to $4
paul_alen: calls $3.50
Allinman23: folds
*** FLOP *** [Tc 6d 3s]
paul_alen: checks
joosebucklol: bets $4
paul_alen: raises $4 to $8
joosebucklol: calls $4
*** TURN *** [Tc 6d 3s] [7s]
paul_alen: checks
joosebucklol: bets $10
paul_alen: raises $10 to $20
joosebucklol: raises $85.55 to $105.55 and is all-in
paul_alen: calls $66 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [Tc 6d 3s 7s] [Kc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
paul_alen: shows [Ts As] (a pair of Tens)
joosebucklol: shows [8s 9s] (a straight, Six to Ten)
joosebucklol collected $194 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $197 | Rake $3
Board [Tc 6d 3s 7s Kc]
Seat 2: WHITE SCHARK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: MonsterKing folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: thialf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: ravensong440 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: joosebucklol (button) showed [8s 9s] and won ($194) with a straight, Six to Ten
Seat 8: paul_alen (small blind) showed [Ts As] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 9: Allinman23 (big blind) folded before Flop

hott_estelle · Jun 4, 2007

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee, fun.

Why don't I find any guys like that to just throw their money at me?

joosebuck · Jun 4, 2007

im sure you have no problem finding guys that are willing to throw their money at you.

OHHH you're talking about that happening to you in poker. My mistake.

Bombjack · Jun 4, 2007

You think you have odds to call even a minimum raise with just a gutshot?

stormswa · Jun 4, 2007

yep

Bombjack said:
You think you have odds to call even a minimum raise with just a gutshot?

not to mention his implied odds.

Bombjack · Jun 4, 2007

Well you're wrong

joeeagles · Jun 4, 2007

Knowing Joose I think he called the minraise with the intention of stealing this pot somewhere down the road. You don't have the right odds to call this hoping for the gutshot and you shouldn't depend on implied odds either. You're 10.75 to 1 to hit the gutshot and he has $66 left. I'm not sure that adds up, it might in this case because the guy was dumb enough to be willing to go broke with top pair T but you can't be depending on that.

I'm sure he had some kind of other plan when he called the minraise, I don't believe it was based on odds, real or implied. The 7 on the turn was just a bonus, again giving him now a great LAG image he can profit from later on this table. Bringing 98s to showdown after he raised PF and fired a bet on the flop is terrific.

blankoblanco · Jun 4, 2007

Bombjack said:
You think you have odds to call even a minimum raise with just a gutshot?

I think it's marginally close. We're getting over 5:1 on a call.

We have a gutshot and backdoor FD which admittedly isn't much. If we were out of position, I'd consider it a fold for sure. But we do have position, so the times he's just trying to take the pot away cheaply when we've missed, we'll often be able to take it from him on later streets, and position allows us to maximize value when we hit/minimize loss when we don't. And if the guy does have a real hand, and he's bad -- which there's a decent chance of being true since he's minraising -- we ought to have a pretty good chance to stack him if we hit our hand. Plus it may be kind of bad for the image to fold to too many flop minraises with that much in the pot.

plus it's teh internet poker so teh draw hits 2.5x as often as in real life lolol

joosebuck · Jun 4, 2007

plus, i love to see turns by the way. more important than the flop lol

skoldpadda · Jun 4, 2007

Bombjack said:
Well you're wrong

Implied odds. If you think this is a bad call, LMAO.

stormswa · Jun 4, 2007

joosebuck said:
PokerStars Game #10262580132: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/06/04 - 04:18:51 (ET)
Table 'Hohensteina' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: WHITE SCHARK ($51.55 in chips)
Seat 3: MonsterKing ($100 in chips)
Seat 4: thialf ($96 in chips)
Seat 5: ravensong440 ($61.50 in chips)
Seat 6: joosebucklol ($117.55 in chips)
Seat 8: paul_alen ($98 in chips)
Seat 9: Allinman23 ($121.75 in chips)
paul_alen: posts small blind $0.50
Allinman23: posts big blind $1
JP917: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [8s 9s]
WHITE SCHARK: folds
MonsterKing: folds
thialf: folds
ravensong440: folds
joosebucklol: raises $3 to $4
paul_alen: calls $3.50
Allinman23: folds
*** FLOP *** [Tc 6d 3s]
paul_alen: checks
joosebucklol: bets $4
paul_alen: raises $4 to $8
joosebucklol: calls $4
*** TURN *** [Tc 6d 3s] 7♠
paul_alen: checks
joosebucklol: bets $10
paul_alen: raises $10 to $20
joosebucklol: raises $85.55 to $105.55 and is all-in
paul_alen: calls $66 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [Tc 6d 3s 7s] K♣
*** SHOW DOWN ***
paul_alen: shows [Ts As] (a pair of Tens)
joosebucklol: shows [8s 9s] (a straight, Six to Ten)
joosebucklol collected $194 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $197 | Rake $3
Board [Tc 6d 3s 7s Kc]
Seat 2: WHITE SCHARK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: MonsterKing folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: thialf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: ravensong440 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: joosebucklol (button) showed [8s 9s] and won ($194) with a straight, Six to Ten
Seat 8: paul_alen (small blind) showed [Ts As] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 9: Allinman23 (big blind) folded before Flop

see above obviously we had some sort of implied odds here.

honestly though if you feel you can stack this certain player a good majority of the time it is not a bad call at all. If he is a smart player then of course we cant but the turn gave him a pretty strong draw with the nut flush and top pair so he wasnt laying down.

hott_estelle · Jun 4, 2007

skoldpadda said:
Implied odds. If you think this is a bad call, LMAO.

I think it is a bad call. Ass laughed off yet skol?

OK, I'm going to have a say in this also and defend BJ for a change (I think first time I ever agreed with him, what a *SHOCK*).

Here's why. I think there is a very large difference when the implied odds are from preflop action, to implied odds calls made on the flop. When you call a big raiser who you know just basically plays premium hands (like AA, KK, QQ, ect) with like an 89 suited, because you know you'll be paid off huge if you get the right flop, this is great implied odds. Also, the biggest factor of preflop implied odds play is that you'll get to see a flop, or three cards to possibly hit a flop in your neighborhood and stack the guy.

Now post-flop implied odds loses much value, compared to preflop implied odds, because of the fact that you are only get one card after making an implied odds call (unless of course you call down to the river). Now, certain implied odds situations postflop are very ideal, and the odds are right for you to call and attempt to make your hand. For example, in this situation had joose had an open-ended striaght draw, or possibly a flush draw (i know flush possibility wasn't there, but hypothetically) then he would have had the right odds to call.

However, having just a gutshot, even with the implied odds being a factor, is normally not enough to make this call, IMO. You're playing basically for just the 7 here, with joose's hand, and well I just don't think that the odds are right at all here. Implied odds loses value postflop, because you don't get to see 3 cards in one go like you do when you make a preflop implied odds call, which is the reason why I think that that reason alone is not enough to make this call.

stormswa · Jun 4, 2007

hott_estelle said:
I think it is a bad call. Ass laughed off yet skol?

OK, I'm going to have a say in this also and defend BJ for a change (I think first time I ever agreed with him, what a *SHOCK*).

Here's why. I think there is a very large difference when the implied odds are from preflop action, to implied odds calls made on the flop. When you call a big raiser who you know just basically plays premium hands (like AA, KK, QQ, ect) with like an 89 suited, because you know you'll be paid off huge if you get the right flop, this is great implied odds. Also, the biggest factor of preflop implied odds play is that you'll get to see a flop, or three cards to possibly hit a flop in your neighborhood and stack the guy.

Now post-flop implied odds loses much value, compared to preflop implied odds, because of the fact that you are only get one card after making an implied odds call (unless of course you call down to the river). Now, certain implied odds situations postflop are very ideal, and the odds are right for you to call and attempt to make your hand. For example, in this situation had joose had an open-ended striaght draw, or possibly a flush draw (i know flush possibility wasn't there, but hypothetically) then he would have had the right odds to call.

However, having just a gutshot, even with the implied odds being a factor, is normally not enough to make this call, IMO. You're playing basically for just the 7 here, with joose's hand, and well I just don't think that the odds are right at all here. Implied odds loses value postflop, because you don't get to see 3 cards in one go like you do when you make a preflop implied odds call, which is the reason why I think that that reason alone is not enough to make this call.

keep in mind that you just dont need the 7 here!

let me elaborate, If we float him here (calling the raise in order to take it away on turn) there is a chance we can get him off the hand he has. Of course not on this turn because it gave him a great draw also but if some scary card comes out like pairing a middle or bottom pair or any broadway card. Like someone said his mini raise on flop looks really really weak so there is a good chance we can get him off the hand on the turn.

dont know I think its borderline.

Bombjack · Jun 4, 2007

I think it's very rare you'll get someone who will pay you off so much with just top pair. If joose hadn't hit and tried to take it away on a later street, it would just have cost him money, as the call of his shove with just top pair showed.

Also the Villain here took a very weird line. 90% of the time, he fires again on the turn, so you're only getting 1 free card. It costs $4 to win $21 so you need 16% equity. Including the backdoor flush, you have this with two cards to come, but with 1 card, you only have 8%.

The only way this is profitable is if you know the guy is a huge fish who will pay you off with his remaining $86 if you hit. The trouble is, even if he is that type, you don't know that he will have a hand strong enough to call on this occasion.

stormswa · Jun 4, 2007

Bombjack said:
I think it's very rare you'll get someone who will pay you off so much with just top pair. If joose hadn't hit and tried to take it away on a later street, it would just have cost him money, as the call of his shove with just top pair showed.

Also the Villain here took a very weird line. 90% of the time, he fires again on the turn, so you're only getting 1 free card. It costs $4 to win $21 so you need 16% equity. Including the backdoor flush, you have this with two cards to come, but with 1 card, you only have 8%.

The only way this is profitable is if you know the guy is a huge fish who will pay you off with his remaining $86 if you hit. The trouble is, even if he is that type, you don't know that he will have a hand strong enough to call on this occasion.

good points bomb!

skoldpadda · Jun 4, 2007

yes, still lmao. The guy's min raise on the flop suggests to me that he really likes his hand. That is my read at that point. So, a seeminlgless harmless 7 on the turn would likely get his stack. Again, that's my read at that point. So, for the 21:4 pot odds, no, I can't call the gut shot, but for the 21+ 86 (remainder of villain's stack): $4 for the call on the turn, I'm getting over 24:1 in implied odds, based on my read.

This is read dependent. If you don't think you can stack the guy or at least get half his stack, then it's a bad call, but as played with my read (and I'm guessing joose felt the same way), you have much more than sufficient implied pot odds to call that raise.

joeeagles · Jun 4, 2007

Only Joose can answer this, but I doubt he called the reraise hoping to hit the gutshot. For those who think implied odds were good just because villain shoved, he also had a huge draw and that might have made him do it. You can't, in any case, seriously be relying on that. I'm sure Joose made this call planning some big reraise on the turn if a high card comes in, getting the 7 was a nice bonus (also being a spade). If the K shows on the turn instead of the river, chances are decent Joose takes it down by playing it aggressively.

Otherwise, as said by BJ, unless you know he's a huge fish you can't give yourself too much I.O.

hott_estelle · Jun 4, 2007

skoldpadda said:
yes, still lmao. The guy's min raise on the flop suggests to me that he really likes his hand. That is my read at that point. So, a seeminlgless harmless 7 on the turn would likely get his stack. Again, that's my read at that point. So, for the 21:4 pot odds, no, I can't call the gut shot, but for the 21+ 86 (remainder of villain's stack): $4 for the call on the turn, I'm getting over 24:1 in implied odds, based on my read.

This is read dependent. If you don't think you can stack the guy or at least get half his stack, then it's a bad call, but as played with my read (and I'm guessing joose felt the same way), you have much more than sufficient implied pot odds to call that raise.

You are thinking like you're going to get 2 cards, if you miss you're not, unless you're planning on calling a big raise on the turn if you miss. You have about an 8% chance to hit the 7 on the turn. That makes it so that you don't have the odds to call, even with considering the implied odds (which I don't think you can be completely certain that you'll stack him, even if you get your 7).

skoldpadda · Jun 4, 2007

No, I'm not "thinking like...to get 2 cards". I'm thinking exactly what I said:

7 on the turn would likely get his stack

And unless I'm mistaken, 24:1 implied odds is definitely worth (greater than) the approx 11:1 odds for turning the 7.

And as I said, this is read dependent. Since he min-raised joose's flop bet, I take this as strength and likely that he'll stack off if a 7 hits.

joosebuck · Jun 4, 2007

implied odds come on later streets. most people can make laydowns on the flop. once they invest about 2-3 pot sized bets it's almost always over for them.

preflop is just a pot bloating allowing me to keep bloating it later without looking like a theif.

further proof why you do not minraise

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