re: Poker & Folded this flush draw. Wrong?
Originally Posted by RickAversion
Wait, why is my equity never below 30% ?
V is betting into the pot, and I have nothing.
Squat. Zilch. Nada. No pair.
Just maybe an overcard, and just a flush draw.
He had something to be betting with, and he bet over 60% of the pot, and my pot odds were 18%/36%
So, my equity is 36% for TWO cards. But, that includes 2 bets, not one.
It doesn't necessarily include two bets, and even then, depending on how much he bets the turn, and what card hits the turn, you could still have good odds to call the turn.
If you called the flop, the pot would then be $90.
If he bets $25 again on the turn, it becomes $115.
$25 is about 20% of $115. You're getting 5:1, definitely worth calling.
Without some idea of what the board looks like, it's very difficult to know what your odds are, but drawing hands can have better odds of winning than made hands.
Check this out:
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ Q♠
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) J♠ T♣ 7♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 204.5 BB, Hero calls 91 BB
Turn: (188.5 BB, 2 players) 9♥
River: (188.5 BB, 2 players) K♣
BTN shows J♦ A♥ (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 56%, Flop 34%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows K♠ Q♠ (Straight, King High) (Pre 44%, Flop 66%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 179.5 BB
Now I made this decision to call All-In here because:
1. I've played well over a thousand hands with this guy, and I know most of the time he's making this play with TPTK, so I'm about 80% sure he has A-J.
2. With a flush draw, an open end straight draw, two overcards to his jacks, and even a backdoor royal/straight flush draw, I know that most of the time, I'm winning here, even though I don't have the best hand on the flop
In this case, I was a 66% favourite. Even if this guy had 9-8 to make the J-high straight, I was still a 53% favourite, and no matter what he was holding, I was never more than a 60:40 underdog - even though I had no pair.
But let's work it out.
To beat A-J, these are my outs:
2 Aces (His Ace was almost dead here) for a straight
3 Kings to win with top pair
3 Queens to win with top pair
3 9s for a straight
9 Spades for a flush
That's 20 outs, which is 40% the remaining deck, and I have two chances to hit them. That means I have about a 68% chance of hitting one of my outs, but I can still lose in certain situations even if I do (Any Turn and river combo of AA, AJ, KQ, QJ, KJ I would still lose), so my actual chance of winning is more like 66%
So you should always try and figure out what your opponent likely has, and how many outs you have to beat him before you make a decision to call, because by just saying "Well, I have 20% to hit my flush on the turn, so I should fold", you're missing out on big pots that you could win.
Google "poker odds calculator" and try running a few hand combos through it, it'll give you a much better idea of how certain hands match up on certain boards.