Flush draw odds
I'm pretty sure I was on the wrong side of the odds
for most of this hand, but it makes for an interesting discussion topic. Feel free to throw all the insults you like.
I only saw BB for 10 hands, during which he played 50% of them, suggesting he's quite loose, although to be fair it wasn't a full game.
Hero is UTG with 7
, 8[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif].
BB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1
, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.35 (All-In), BB calls $0.75.
Not normally a raising hand for me, but we're short handed and I'm mixing it up. And if it's good enough to call a raise with, it's good enough to raise.
($3.60) K[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif], T[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif], A[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif] (4 players, 1 all-in)
Well, there are some scary cards there, but I have the initiative as raiser, and a flush draw. Put out a feeler bet which might win it for me right here.
BB checks, Hero bets $2
, Button folds, BB raises to $7
Have been check raised, suggesting he has a pretty strong hand. It's $5 to call on the $12.60 pot. My chances of making the flush on the turn are 19%, and by the river 35%. $5 is 40% of the pot, but should get good implied odds.
What could he have? He would probably have re-raised pre-flop with AA, KK, TT, AK. Could have AT, KT, or maybe QJ for a made straight. Flush draw unlikely.
Hero calls $5.
Marginal call at best, but not terrible.
($17.60) 9[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif] (3 players, 1 all-in)
Not a bad card for me. I now have an up-down straight draw (so long as BB doesn't have a Queen) as well as my flush draw.
BB bets $10.3 (All-In)
It's $10.30 to call on a $27.90 pot. I need 37% to call. With flush draw (9 outs) and straight draw (another 6), assuming a pair of 7s or 8s won't win, I have a 33% chance of hitting.
Hero calls $10.30.
Not a good call mathematically speaking, but it's tricky to work out the precise odds on the spot.
($38.20) 9[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif] (3 players, 2 all-in)
I get lucky and hit one of my outs. Turns out I didn't have as many as I thought!
Big Stav shows Q[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif], J[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif]
Bombjack_x shows 7[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif] ,8[image: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif]
johnny__c123 mucks cards
Bombjack_x wins $37.95.
a) Assuming deep stacks, what % of the pot should you be prepared to pay on the flop to see the turn with a flush draw, when heads-up?
b) If you have the made straight and are setting the odds, do you set the odds so that it's just about worth your opponent calling (despite his not being favourite to win), or so that it's not worth him drawing out, so you win it right there? I think it's got to be the former, because otherwise you'd just go all-in on a flop like this every time. BB made it so it just about wasn't worth it. Comments?