re: Poker & Flopping 3 pair in PLO8
Well I'm glad nobody said bet-fold or check-fold cause Like Chuck and Dorkus both pointed out, I'm most likely ahead on the high side of the pot. Against the most likely range of my opponents hands it's a complete coinflip, where neither of us are a 51% favourite. However if the villain is decent it's likely I can make him fold hands like A5, A6 and stuff like that, that also has close to 50% equity, so it is important to get aggresive in this situation.
I actually like the check-raise better than leading out in this situation, although leading out isn't terrible.
1) I don't see how I get more information from leading out, and if villain simply calls me, there are a lot of turn cards where I will have to check-fold, so I prefer to potcommit myself so I don't have any tough decisions on future streets.
2) The other late position player would probably go for a check-raise aswell if he had hit this flop. And I would have to fold if he did that after I lead out. By checking, I'm actually buying last position.
3) I get to punish villain for making a continuation bet if he completely missed the flop.
4) If villain for some reason decides to check this flop (very unlikely), then I don't really mind cause I'm getting more info on his hand than he is getting on mine. And if I don't like the turn I can simply fold, and bet if I like it.
I don't really think 2 seats of the button is considered MP and if it's -EV to post there it's not by much. But I have never been known to be a patient person, so I will always choose to post there .
I don't like to get involved in hands early either, because of the missing reads, but I don't think I could avoid it here. Because there
s no way I'm not folding this hand preflop, and not on the flop either. It's just a little bit to good to do that.
I'm not really putting villain on AA2x but rather A2xx or A3Wx. I would expect him to raise more with AA2 preflop, but it doesn't really matter because AA2x and A2xx has aproximately the same equity.
Result of the hand:
As it turned out, there was no reason to consider what the likely range of hands was for villain, because he was a donk. He showed 3♣ 4♦ 10♣ 7♥ for a whopping bottom 2 pair with no low draw. Luckily he didn't suck out on me and I won the pot.