Flopped set, turn gets apparently nasty - what to do?

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Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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MP = 62/0/0.3 loose passive megadonk.
BB = 40/20/1, slight maniacal tendencies, but not too bad a player.

party poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (Format: Plain Text)

SB ($21.13)
BB ($11.41)
Hero ($27.15)
MP ($6.12)
Button ($21.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4s, 4h. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, BB checks. <--- table was generally loose/passive barring BB, so I feel the limp was justified. Set mining owns!

Flop: ($0.85) 4d, 5h, Ts (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75, BB calls $0.75.

Turn: ($3.10) 2c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, MP raises to $4, BB calls $10.41 (All-In), Hero hates life and ???


My thoughts and results to come.
 
Tammy

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Hmmm...at a 5 handed table, I think a preflop raise is called for here. You need to gain some info about your hand and push limpers out.

Since BB was allowed to limp in, as you know, he could be holding absolutely anything (3/6, 10/2. A/3, etc). The turn gives no flush draws, but there is a lo-ball straight draw..Is BB the type to call a near pot-sized bet with a gut-shot or TPBK? Here is where you need to rely on your reads. Oh yeah, just saw MP raising you as well.

Given that villain could be holding literally anything, and now suddenly MP is raising, you have to fold. One of them probably has two pair; but one of them almost surely has the straight.
 
Effexor

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I agree with Q, I think you're up against a straight.

That said, I'd call. The pot size is just about $20 at this point, it's going to cost you about $6 to call and I'd assume the MP would put the rest of his stack in as well. You are getting about 4-1 on your money and only about 1-5 to improve your hand but you may already have the best hand.

The case 4 would win it, or any of the three 5's, tens, or 2's will give you a boat for 10 real good outs. 10 out with 46 cards left is 21% to improve but like I said you may already have the best hand.

If they had more money it would be a different story, you won't be faced with another raise on the river though.
 
poettic1

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it's actually $8.41 to go into a pot just under $20. if you can put either one of them on the strait then statistically you CANNOT make the call or in the long run of your poker carreer this hand will loose you money. all you have in cash games are pot odds, so if you are sure one of them has an ass strait you are 21% to win a pot you put 43% bet into. even if MP calls you are still getting bad odds .

that said if you have any reads trust them. if you don't get the hell out of the hand the math says so
 
Effexor

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Yup you are right my odds were out of wack. This is what happens when you try and post while running around the house chasing kids and changing diapers and 90 min later when I finish the post I got my facts all jumbled.

I guess the bigger question is do you always assume you are behind in the hand? You could very well be ahead at this point. How do you factor that into the odds. If there was a flush possibility instead of the straight would you fold then too?

Assign odds to all possibilities:

10% the all in was a bluff (Harrington assigns %10 to every hand as a bluff possibility)
30% one person has TPTK and one person has 2 pair
60% one person has a straight

Even if you don't have true pot odds to call, trips is still a good hand and doesn't the chance you do have the best hand make up for the difference?
 
t1riel

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I don't know. I think slowplaying the set was a good move since there isn't any flush draws and a long shot straight draw was the only possible situation where you might get beat (or pocket tens and fives). I would call the all in here. I see them having two pair or chasing the straight.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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It's an unraised pot, hence MP and BB could have anything, so I don't think slowplaying is wise here. If the pot had been raised preflop it would be more feasible, as even most donks won't call a pf raise with 45/67/etc.

I'll post results when I get home - I don't have PT at work. ^^
 
robwhufc

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As Effexor said, you're either behind to a straight with outs (10), behind a bigger set (i don't think you can worry about that - if they've got it they've got it), or ahead. The straight is feasible of course - A 3 most likely holding, but you can also try and use a bit of lateral thinking and put yourself in your opponents shoes...

- You're leading the betting - so what? Often in short handed ring games it's the aggressor that wins the pots, you've not neccesarily got a hand.

- MP is megadonk, do you take his bet seriously?

- If not, why should BB? If he comes over the top, he shuts you out unless you've got a big hand (you wouldn't call with 10 x would you?), and isolates "megadonk" H2H.

Another thing to bear in mind here, is that if you beat BB but lose to MP, you'll get $5 back and only be a little down (if at all).

Combination of all of those, the fact you could be ahead, the fact that you can come out level if you beat BB but lose to MP, and the fact that if you are behind you can still catch = call.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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robwhufc said:
- MP is megadonk, do you take his bet seriously?

Loose/passive megadonk. If he had something like TPTK or even a weak two pair I could quite easily see him calling all the way down here, so the minraise worries me.

Not sure if it worries BB or if he is just trying to isolate, though I suspect I'd be crediting him too much by assuming he's making an isolation play. If I am going to give him credit for isolating, I should also give him credit for knowing that hands like TPTK/2pair/etc diminish in value if a pot is unraised preflop, so I can't see him pushing anything that weak here, even given his aggressive tendencies (there is a time and place for aggression, and with a marginal holding in an unraised pot with this kind of action, this is not it, and I doubt BB is a bad enough player from what I've seen for him to think that it is).

I find giving MP a range very difficult, but I can certainly only imagine BB having A3/36/55/22, possibly a horribly played AA-TT or 33, with a random two pair being possible but very unlikely imo.

The mantra "Don't go broke in an unraised pot without the nuts" keeps circling in my head. I'm still unsure if this situation is one of the exceptions (there obviously are some exceptions).

This is one of those hands where there's no way I could post results in the OP, because I can easily see them skewering some replies. Thanks for the feedback so far all, you've made me think a lot more deeply about the hand.
 
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robwhufc

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Dorkus Malorkus said:
Loose/passive megadonk. If he had something like TPTK or even a weak two pair I could quite easily see him calling all the way down here, so the minraise worries me.
He's not min raising, he's virtually all in. If he calls he's nigh on pot committed, so i wouldn't read much into that bet, other than he doesn't want BB to call.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (Format: Plain Text)

SB ($21.13)
BB ($11.41)
Hero ($27.15)
MP ($6.12)
Button ($21.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4s, 4h. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.85) 4d, 5h, Ts (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75, BB calls $0.75.

Turn: ($3.10) 2c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, MP raises to $4, BB calls $10.41 (All-In), Hero folds, MP calls $1.12 (All-In).

River: ($20.63) 9d (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $20.63

Results below:
BB has 3c 6d (straight, six high).
MP has Ah 3h (straight, five high).
Outcome: BB wins $20.63.
 
joosebuck

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i would've put the bb on 2 pair with something like 25 (but 36 isnt far off.)
 
joosebuck

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i dont think you can make the overcall, though, because seeing as how at least 1 limped from the blinds, that board could have easily gotten them a straight. good laydown.
 
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