Family PF pot gets me in trouble OOP again. Flopped TD and FD.

A

Aleeki

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Am I being too aggressive and spewy here?

TP with a FD OOP i can't see how a call helps me here cos i'm stuck on a turn blank. Its raise or fold for me...isn't it?

Same Villian as before: is 20/12/1.7 over 373 hands.


No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($100)
Button ($77.60)
Hero (SB) ($104.20)
BB ($100)
UTG ($270)
MP ($151.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K
club.gif
, 8
club.gif

UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($5) 8
diamond.gif
, 3
club.gif
, 7
club.gif
(5 players)
Hero bets $4, 1 fold, UTG calls $4, MP calls $4, CO raises $21, Hero raises $99.20 (All-In), 2 folds, CO calls $78 (All-In)

Turn: ($211) Q
spade.gif
(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($211) 6
heart.gif
(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $211

 
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viking999

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He's not super aggressive. Do you think he's the kind to raise with a draw?

If he mostly has a made hand here, and we must assume it's a better made hand, then the only value of shoving is for hands he will fold. A8 seems like a reasonable hand for him to fold. He theoretically might fold a weak overpair, but was he likely to have limped late with one? I think if he's not the type to jam with a draw, then you're throwing money away by shoving here. He's calling with a huge percentage of his range, and you have at best 12 outs (I'm assuming he can't have 73). Your 115/95 pot odds require 45% win rate, which you do not quite have even in the best case versus a made hand. He may fold A8, but you're way behind a set. So if he's not pushing draws, shoving is likely -EV. If he might have slowplayed a big pair, then that nudges you in favor of shoving, but that seems a bit unlikely after two limpers.

If he may have a combo draw, you have odds to shove against 9cTc, and you're a decent favorite against 9c6c, 5c6c, and TcJc. So add in the possibility of some draws, and I think shoving becomes profitable.

So what about calling? A blank on the turn is probably going to get him to jam with a made hand. So I'm probably going to end up folding on a turn that's not a K, 8, or club, so in other words about 2/3 of the time. That's roughly break even on the flop without even considering implied odds. Now you may end up stacking off on a K, 8, or sometimes even a club (if he has the A high draw), but you're bound to win a lot when you hit a live out, too. On the whole I think there are many more live outs than dead outs in this spot.

So I think I have a slight preference for flat calling and check/folding without a K, 8, or club. Also, if you're risk averse, I think this is a reasonable spot to just fold even though you're giving up a little bit of value. It's definitely a small value, high variance spot.
 
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Aleeki

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Thanks for that. Really in depth response.

I think then I am thinking about things wrong when it comes to draw OOP.

I probably should be folding alot more than I am playing them like the nuts.

So what you are saying is that I should only be raising draws oop with the intention of folding out better hands?

Is there any time when I would be looking to get it in on the flop/turn with a nut FD for example?

I think this is a major leak in my game and I need to focus on value raising vs bluff raising vs spewy raising.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Thanks for that. Really in depth response.

I think then I am thinking about things wrong when it comes to draw OOP.

I probably should be folding alot more than I am playing them like the nuts.

So what you are saying is that I should only be raising draws oop with the intention of folding out better hands?

Is there any time when I would be looking to get it in on the flop/turn with a nut FD for example?

I think this is a major leak in my game and I need to focus on value raising vs bluff raising vs spewy raising.
I don't think you were wrong to shove on this flop. I'd have liked it more if there was more dead money in the pot, but I think overall you'll turn a profit from the shove.

That said, getting it in with a flushdraw on the flop is definitely a bluff. People overplay and spew with flopped strong draws and play them like they have >50% equity, which they don't. They're semi bluffs, and your profit comes from the folds, not the calls. This is a huge distinction and one that I'm wondering if most regs at even 200NL get. When someone else shoves and you have a flushdraw, you should be a LOT less happy than you would be if you shoved yourself, in other words.

The reason I think your shove here is fine is because he could easily have a flushdraw himself, and you have ALL flushdraws dominated because you have top pair. Not to mention he could have an open-ended straight draw and be overplaying it, and you're (albeit a small) favorite versus even TT, here.
 
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Aleeki

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Thanks FP.

That makes me feel a lot better about this one and I understand what you're saying about FD's and shoving rather than calling an all in with one.

Cheers, this will help in the future.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Be clear on the fact that you will most often end up having to call an all-in anyway, because the odds will often be in your favour. But if you have your thinking cap on straight, you'll feel a little bit sick to your stomach for being raised, rather than go "woowoo! I have odds!" :)
 
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