Experiment hand #2: 100NL, KK vs check-minraise on rag flop

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain's been a little limpey, as has the rest of the table, though he's probably the tightest player there (which isn't saying much).


GAME #537384075: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00 2007-04-26 20:27:33
Table "TURBO" Syracuse�
Seat 1: shaun009 ($51.39 in chips)
Seat 2: kovalainen ($14.40 in chips)
Seat 4: kulix70 ($124.25 in chips)
Seat 5: senzor1 ($158.70 in chips)
Seat 6: TheLucky123 ($113.40 in chips)
Seat 7: lorenzo00 ($38.15 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs16 ($90.74 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: MooSys ($170.77 in chips)
MooSys: Post SB $0.50
shaun009: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs16 [Kd] [Kc]
kovalainen: Fold
kulix70: Fold
senzor1: Fold
TheLucky123: Fold
lorenzo00: Call $1.00
ChuckTs16: Raise $5.00
MooSys: Call $4.50
shaun009: Call $4.00
lorenzo00: Fold
*** FLOP *** [10s] [2c] [5c]
MooSys: Check
shaun009: Check
ChuckTs16: Bet $12.00
MooSys: Raise $24.00
shaun009: Fold
ChuckTs16: ...
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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Gross. This is a set a decent amount of the time, but I can't pin down how often. There are players who bluff this way, play AT, JJ-QQ, or a flush draw this way. I probably shove, but I'm not accustomed enough to the check-minraising from probable donks to be able to approximate how often this is a set. I imagine it's a lot, so I don't hate a fold either. Largely read dependent, without reads, I sigh and shove.
 
ChuckTs

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This was a turbo table too, which of course didn't help much with my decision :/
 
robwhufc

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Titan? He's got AA

Anywhere else? The min-raise says bluff to me so i'd go all-in.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Titan? He's got AA.

But Chuck has the shorter stack so he should just go allin and suck out, right? :confused:

Seriously, this is an idiot with AT/QQ/JJ/flush draw/random crap more than it is anything that beats you.

In position here, I kinda like calling and seeing what he does on the turn. On a non-threatening turn we should be raising allin if he leads (pushing the flop is a little excessive given stack sizes). Any bet from him on the turn has got to be commiting him to the pot, and given that he's check-raised the flop he's likely to lead the turn to try and continue to represent strength - so we gain value in playing this way in many cases, as opposed to shoving the flop and possibly driving out a large portion of villain's range.

If we were somehow in this situation OOP I'd prefer just shoving, but I don't think there's a lot to fear by getting further into a pot in position.
 
ChuckTs

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I think I like the call, push to a raise on the turn idea. There are downsides, though - a flush draw makes this play often, as does Tx, so if we see a club or ten on the turn I'll still probably have to pay him off. I don't think I'm good enough to fold should one of those scare cards drop (especially not with the [Kc] for the redraw).

Anyways, I'm making sure I don't play on the turbo tables tomorrow unless there's an expecially juicy one, because you literally get like 10 seconds to decide what to do which really made me rush some hands.

Results (a little early, but I think we got some good replies):

I push, he folds. Must have been A5/66-99 or some random bluff.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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We can't discount a flush draw, but check-minraising is a very unusual play for someone to make with one. Hence, while it's possible he's a donk with a FD, I don't think we can say a FD "makes this play often", and in compiling villain's range I would only be assigning a relatively small percentage to a FD, as it's unlikely he has one from (a) a pure statistical view, and (b) the way he's played the hand.

I think this is more likely to be complete air than a FD, to be honest (not saying that based on results, just pf/flop action).
 
blankoblanco

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Problems with just calling. We lose value from AT, QQ, JJ a decent amount of the time, when any club or overcard kills our action. If he's bluffing with something stupid with an A in it, or some low pair, we give him a chance to hit his A or set times when he's only putting in another chip if he hits anyway (negative freeroll).

Like Chuck said, it's not like a club is going to let us get away from it anyway.

Just calling maximizes our value against air, but I think shoving maximizes our value from real made hands. I think a mincheckraise is more often a real hand than air, almost by default.
 
Bombjack

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I'd call him here and shove a blank turn. I don't think a set min-raises on this flop, and even if that's what he has, you're not really deep enough to get away from it. If you re-raise to $50, you can't fold if he shoves because you're getting like 4:1.

Difficult to know what do do if you call and he puts you in on a blank turn. I think that's the only time you could get away from the hand if he has a set.

Not sure I like shoving because you'll tend only to get called when you're well behind or flipping with something like [ac][qc].
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Not sure I like shoving because you'll tend only to get called when you're well behind or flipping with something like A♣Q♣.


Ahh but you underestimate the craziness that is Titan's side games. It's like a whole other world over there.
 
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