Experiment hand #1: 100NL, 78c gutshot + flush draw OOP

First hand of today's bonus money experiment session thingamabob.

I've observed the table a couple of hands, and most players are very loose. No specific reads on either of the players in


GAME #537375251: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00 2007-04-26 20:16:52
Table "TURBO" Syracuse�
Seat 1: shaun009 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 2: kovalainen ($15.90 in chips)
Seat 4: kulix70 ($96.65 in chips)
Seat 5: senzor1 ($93.00 in chips)
Seat 6: TheLucky123 ($115.90 in chips) DEALER
Seat 7: lorenzo00 ($37.95 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs16 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 10: MooSys ($185.77 in chips)
lorenzo00: Post SB $0.50
ChuckTs16: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs16 [7c] [8c]
MooSys: Fold
shaun009: Call $1.00
kovalainen: Fold
kulix70: Fold
senzor1: Raise $4.00
TheLucky123: Fold
lorenzo00: Call $3.50
ChuckTs16: Call $3.00
shaun009: Call $3.00
*** FLOP *** [5c] [Qd] [4c]
lorenzo00: Check
ChuckTs16: ...

(questionable PF, I know, but I like to gambol )

Strong enough to ch/r or lead/push? Maybe just ch/c if we get good odds?

Stack sizes look better for lead/push. You bet $10-$12. If PFR raises 2.5-3x that, you shove with a good amount trapped in there but still fold equity.

I hate c/c with this hand. We're out of position and have only 3 really good outs to hit on the turn.. the non-club sixes (~7% chance). If we hit our flush, we probably don't get paid off much by competent players... look at how many saw the flop. If anyone just check/calls, it's usually the flush draw. The times we hit nothing, we probably get pushed out. There's a lot in the pot already, I play this really strongly.

I would have to bet between $8-12 and if raises you I might just push because you have around 14 outs at least.

One play I've been thinking about lately is to lead out small into these pots, when you're out of position and the pre-flop raiser is in late, with people in the middle. It accomplishes several things:

1) gets a load of moneyz in the pot because people have to put it in even before they get to see what the pre-flop raiser does. They're unlikely to raise even with top pair since they don't know what the late position raiser is going to do

2) it makes you less likely to face a continuation bet and you get to see the turn cheap

3) if the pre-flop raiser does raise, there's enough money in the pot for you to make a really scary re-raise / shove. Bet-3-bet is scarier than check-raise.

4) it'll fold out a lot of players. The problem with shoving after a raise from the pre-flop raiser is that you don't know what the other players in the hand are going to do. If they've folded, you know you're in a great position to shove. If not, shoving is probably bad. You know they have a little something, and could well have a set or a better draw, so you should just call in this situation. Also, because you'll make a very strong hand if you do hit, you don't mind keeping players in multi-way.

5) you get more of a read on the the other players' holdings than if you just check

So personally I'd lead for about $5 and take it from there.

alexanderwoo1 said:

I would have to bet between $8-12 and if raises you I might just push because you have around 3 outs at least.

Click to expand...

FYP

You're drawing very slim versus [qc][6c] or suchlike.

I say bet the pot. It will at least get rid of one player or more. Also, you get to see where the other players stand. Granted, you are probably behind but you have outs galore so a call from at least one player shouldn't worry you...yet.

I say C/R. Gutshot, Flush draw, it's good enough for me to C/R, push out a few players. Put the original raiser on the defensive, maybe you might even get a free card.

Well I concede, I played this like an absolute pansy (1st time playing at 100NL in a while...a bit of scared money).

Anyways:

GAME #537375251: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00 2007-04-26 20:16:52
Table "TURBO" Syracuse�
Seat 1: shaun009 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 2: kovalainen ($15.90 in chips)
Seat 4: kulix70 ($96.65 in chips)
Seat 5: senzor1 ($93.00 in chips)
Seat 6: TheLucky123 ($115.90 in chips) DEALER
Seat 7: lorenzo00 ($37.95 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs16 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 10: MooSys ($185.77 in chips)
lorenzo00: Post SB $0.50
ChuckTs16: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs16 [7c] [8c]
MooSys: Fold
shaun009: Call $1.00
kovalainen: Fold
kulix70: Fold
senzor1: Raise $4.00
TheLucky123: Fold
lorenzo00: Call $3.50
ChuckTs16: Call $3.00
shaun009: Call $3.00
*** FLOP *** [5c] [Qd] [4c]
lorenzo00: Check
ChuckTs16: Check
shaun009: Check
senzor1: Bet $8.00
lorenzo00: Call $8.00
ChuckTs16: ...

RAISE!!

I don't know if I raise here now that lorenzo check/called. The problem that I have with this type of hands when I play them in multiway pots (which ironically is what you want) is that I'm always concerned that someone has a higher flush draw. A check/call is usually a red flag for me. I'm not suggesting, obviously, that you fold, but personally I don't like a raise here anymore, even if you did mention table is loose so lorenzo's range is probably wide, might be 2 overcards (AK, he did call a $4.00 raise after all), or a medium PP like 88, 99.

I'd just call here and wait the turn even if I know that you might (and you're probably right) think I'm too conservative.

Well I did say that I played it like a pansy...


I call, turn comes:

GAME #537375251: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00 2007-04-26 20:16:52
Table "TURBO" Syracuse�
Seat 1: shaun009 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 2: kovalainen ($15.90 in chips)
Seat 4: kulix70 ($96.65 in chips)
Seat 5: senzor1 ($93.00 in chips)
Seat 6: TheLucky123 ($115.90 in chips) DEALER
Seat 7: lorenzo00 ($37.95 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs16 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 10: MooSys ($185.77 in chips)
lorenzo00: Post SB $0.50
ChuckTs16: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs16 7♣ 8♣
MooSys: Fold
shaun009: Call $1.00
kovalainen: Fold
kulix70: Fold
senzor1: Raise $4.00
TheLucky123: Fold
lorenzo00: Call $3.50
ChuckTs16: Call $3.00
shaun009: Call $3.00
*** FLOP *** 5♣ Q♦ 4♣
lorenzo00: Check
ChuckTs16: Check
shaun009: Check
senzor1: Bet $8.00
lorenzo00: Call $8.00
ChuckTs16: Call $8.00
shaun009: Fold
*** TURN *** [2s]
lorenzo00: Check
ChuckTs16: Check
senzor1: Bet $18.00
lorenzo00: Call $18.00
ChuckTs16: ...

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Obviously we are push/fold now.

I really think you have to lay this down. Don't take this the wrong way, because I've seen your posts before and you are a solid player, but, I would fold and use the weak/passive image to my advantage later.

On the other hand our stack is dangerously low and a desperation shove is not out of the question.

Call, you have the odds to call.

tosborn said:

Obviously we are push/fold now.

Click to expand...

Um, why? Pushing and folding here are both terrible imo. Our stack isn't "desperately low" (full buy-in), and it's not a tournament anyway.

Chuck has 12 possible outs, which he's 24% to hit. His pot odds are 18 to win 76, so assuming the outs are clean, he has to call with 19% or more equity, which he has.

Why would you push? You have 24% equity in the pot at best, and lorenzo00 is already pot-committed, so you have no fold equity. Even if he had a full stack I don't think it's that great a move to be bluffing into 2 people who have hands.

The only question is whether your outs are clean or not. The check-call from lorenzo00 could mean he's on a club draw, but his stack is pretty short (like $8 left) so you're probably not offering too much in the way of reverse implied odds if a club comes on the river, and it makes a draw slightly more unlikely since he knows he's not getting great implied odds - he'd probably shove the flop with 2 high clubs. He could well be on a Queen or even an open-ended straight draw.

Looks like a standard call.

A call only leaves Chuck with $8±. By calling we are already making a decision for our stack. We might as well push if we are going to play this hand further.

A call leaves Chuck with $71-odd tosborn.

Very interesting hand..... why no aggression Chuck? Constant 3/4 pot bets look like Senzor hasn't a clue where he stands in the hand, and would probably fold to a raise.

Lorenzo looks more and more likely to have a flush draw and probably could be pushed off by a raise, but curtains if he's playing KQc/QJc which would support his calls.

Bombjack, great analysis btw.

@$#%. I looked at Lorenzo's stack and thought that was Chuck's. I guess I need glasses. I was playing the hand that entire time with his stack of $37 in mind.

Please disregard all of my earlier posts. I was really wondering why Chuck was playing this hand that way shortstacked.

Yeah, I agree with just calling of course hoping that your outs are actually 12. These are hands that give me trouble when they play out this way with a check/caller because I tend to stay conservative and not aggressive, as I said before. The fact you're saying you played it like a pansy when I'm 100% sure I would have played in this exact fashion conferms me that.

Almost forgot about this, sorry.

GAME #537375251: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00 2007-04-26 20:16:52
Table "TURBO" Syracuse�
Seat 1: shaun009 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 2: kovalainen ($15.90 in chips)
Seat 4: kulix70 ($96.65 in chips)
Seat 5: senzor1 ($93.00 in chips)
Seat 6: TheLucky123 ($115.90 in chips) DEALER
Seat 7: lorenzo00 ($37.95 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs16 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 10: MooSys ($185.77 in chips)
lorenzo00: Post SB $0.50
ChuckTs16: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs16 [7c] [8c]
MooSys: Fold
shaun009: Call $1.00
kovalainen: Fold
kulix70: Fold
senzor1: Raise $4.00
TheLucky123: Fold
lorenzo00: Call $3.50
ChuckTs16: Call $3.00
shaun009: Call $3.00
*** FLOP *** [5c] [Qd] [4c]
lorenzo00: Check
ChuckTs16: Check
shaun009: Check
senzor1: Bet $8.00
lorenzo00: Call $8.00
ChuckTs16: Call $8.00
shaun009: Fold
*** TURN *** [2s]
lorenzo00: Check
ChuckTs16: Check
senzor1: Bet $18.00
lorenzo00: Call $18.00
ChuckTs16: Fold Playing with only one buyin makes you do funny things :/
*** RIVER *** [4h]
lorenzo00: Check
senzor1: Bet $8.00
lorenzo00: Fold wow. Flush draw maybe?
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $81.00 Rake $3.00
senzor1: wins $81.00

Yyyyyep. Rusty rusty rusty.

I don't disagree with your fold here because as I said before it looked like lorenzo was on the flush draw and many of your outs were no good. In the past too many times I played hands like this too softly (check/calling fearing too much the other player in the hand), and now I've committed that if there is a reason that makes me feel insecure to play any hand aggressively it is better to just fold. If you were HU the approach could have been different.

I know that many disagree with this but when you see a player check/call the flop and the turn it strongly suggests to me that he is on a draw, and with your hand its easy to assume his draw is better than yours. His fold on the river pretty much conferms it.

To me your fold looks great and not only because you wouldn't have made your hand. I'm not saying that it was necessarily right but I like it in this spot.