R
red_dawn_28
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Assume all effective stacks are $200
I’m in EP.
Dealt to Hero Kd, 2d
6 limpers for $5 including blinds who check.
Pot = $30
*** FLOP *** Ad, Qd, 2h
Blinds check.
Hero bets $15 – kind of a probe bet, see where I am, build the pot.
Button calls, SB calls.
Pot $75
*** TURN *** 5c
Hero checks.
Button bets $25
SB calls $25
Hero?
I was really torn here between calling and raising. If I call I’m getting 5:1 and I have probably 14 outs so 2.6:1 against – this is where I think a lot of the books are wrong because they would just tell you to call based on pot odds. But if I miss I will lose the whole pot. On the other hand I felt that there was a really good chance I could take down $125 for sure with an all in. The button could be betting with anything but probably a Q or else he would have raised the flop. The SB just called so he can’t be that strong, maybe a flush draw drawing dead.
Look at the EV. If I go all in and he calls I am 2.6:1 but only getting 1.7:1 on my $$. That has an EV of -$44.2. However there is a pretty good chance he’ll fold. In fact I only need there to be a 26% chance that he folds to be breakeven EV.
EV = 26% * $125 [if he folds] + 74% * { 28% * $305 – 72% * $180 } [if he calls]
EV = $0
Thoughts?
I’m in EP.
Dealt to Hero Kd, 2d
6 limpers for $5 including blinds who check.
Pot = $30
*** FLOP *** Ad, Qd, 2h
Blinds check.
Hero bets $15 – kind of a probe bet, see where I am, build the pot.
Button calls, SB calls.
Pot $75
*** TURN *** 5c
Hero checks.
Button bets $25
SB calls $25
Hero?
I was really torn here between calling and raising. If I call I’m getting 5:1 and I have probably 14 outs so 2.6:1 against – this is where I think a lot of the books are wrong because they would just tell you to call based on pot odds. But if I miss I will lose the whole pot. On the other hand I felt that there was a really good chance I could take down $125 for sure with an all in. The button could be betting with anything but probably a Q or else he would have raised the flop. The SB just called so he can’t be that strong, maybe a flush draw drawing dead.
Look at the EV. If I go all in and he calls I am 2.6:1 but only getting 1.7:1 on my $$. That has an EV of -$44.2. However there is a pretty good chance he’ll fold. In fact I only need there to be a 26% chance that he folds to be breakeven EV.
EV = 26% * $125 [if he folds] + 74% * { 28% * $305 – 72% * $180 } [if he calls]
EV = $0
Thoughts?