Originally Posted by baudib1
We're not calling the flop to slowplay.
If our opponent raises 44% of boards and has a calling range that looks about like this being widest possible:
44% of this range of 13.4% of hands would be 5.9% of hands. This is about the strongest 5.9% of hands: TT-77,66,22,AJs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo,QJo
We are 75.7% equity versus this range.
If we narrow the range to something a bit more reasonable like:
this is an 8% calling range and we only have 65.7% equity versus it and only 55.2% equity versus the range: TT+,77,55,AcKc,AcQc,AJs
I find this range to be the most tight raising range, but since an average of a 44% cbet raise is rather high we should look to expand on his range, especially because the board textures is GREAT for making a raise bluff on the flop (one high card two low cards, hard to have a strong hand or draw)
So what it comes down to is their calling range preflop, do they flat big pairs in this spot a lot and do they flat AJs or possibly weaker hands? I do think flatting on the flop is a slowplay versus the opponent type and flop texture but if he only plays the nuts preflop and always flats raises with it, that would explain his large flop raise cbet % as well.