€5 NLHE Full Ring: Help analysing losing hand and thinking

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enesem

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/15/5

Hi, so here goes...

I am playing on a table with one particular guy who is 19/15 and I have 350 PT hands on him. He multi tables and has a modest win rate at online tourneys.

So I have his range at 10/10+ for opening.

I am dealt QQ.

He raises to 3bb pre flop, I 3 bet to 6bb, he calls. (Mistake 1 - should have gone to 9bb?) Anyhow, as he didn't 4 bet me, I am thinking not qq+, possibly pocket 10s or pocket jacks.

Flop comes, I am still over, I bet 2/3 of the pot, he calls, so I am so far happy with my thinking that it's a pair, 10s or jacks. If he had a set he would have raised I think, and anyway I ranged him opening 10/10+. Any broadway hand I figured he would fold.

Turn comes an 8, so I figure I am safe to shove (mistake no 2 - not sure why I thought to shove here, I guess to either get him to commit what he thought was an overpair, or to fold.)

Anyhoo, he calls, and the rest is history.

Please would you critique my thinking and play and let me know if I was on the right lines or misjudging.

How do you think he read me ? (TagFish, 23/14/12)

Thanks in advance for the analysis.




PokerStars - €0.05 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 120.6 BB (VPIP: 19.18, PFR: 14.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.32, Hands: 323)
BTN: 24.6 BB (VPIP: 47.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)
SB: 80 BB (VPIP: 13.44, PFR: 2.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 189)
Hero (BB): 117.8 BB
UTG: 103.4 BB (VPIP: 14.46, PFR: 12.05, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 83)
MP: 50.2 BB (VPIP: 43.66, PFR: 2.82, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 72)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:spade: Q:diamond:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, CO calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.4 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: 9:club: 5:heart:
Hero bets 8 BB, CO calls 8 BB

Turn: (28.4 BB, 2 players) 8:club:
Hero bets 103.8 BB and is all-in, CO calls 103.8 BB

River: (236 BB, 2 players) J:heart:

Hero shows Q:spade: Q:diamond: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 81%, Flop 86%, Turn 5%)
CO shows 8:heart: 8:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 19%, Flop 14%, Turn 95%)
CO wins 226.2 BB
 
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micromachine

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His range for opening from CO on a 6 player table is a lot wider than TT+, I would say more like 22+, all suited broadways, all broadways (except possibly the weakest ones), A2s+, A9o+, and some suited connectors maybe 78s+.

Definitely 3bet bigger, especially cos you lack position, make it 10-12bb.

Don't shove the turn, you'll only get called by better hands. You are thinking on the turn that you want to get value from JJ and TT (you can actually get value from more than that), so why shove? A guy with decent stats like that will be able to fold over pairs in the face of a shove so you're better off betting about 2/3 pot again and folding to raises.
 
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enesem

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Will it was full ring, and he was pretty tight pre flop, hence me thinking TT+, but I see your point about much lower pairs.

Thanks for taking the time to reply.
 
micromachine

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Yeah I realised it was FR with only 6 players at the table, opening ranges for a (slightly nitty) TAG like this from the CO whether it be 6max or FR will be considerably wider than TT+
 
Eatscake

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First of all you're right, 3bet to at least 9bb depending on how often he folds to 3bet. By 3betting 6bb he only has to call another 3bb into a pot of 9.5bb giving him better than 3:1 on a call, added to the fact hes in position he should be calling here with 100% of his opening range that he isnt 4betting. Because of this assuming he has a pocket pair TT+ is ridiculous. Open up pokerstove or equilab and have a look at the top 15-20% of hands. That should be about his range on the flop.

When he calls your flop bet I dont think you can discount much of his range at all. He might fold stuff like QJo KQo etc but I think he will be calling very often with A high and almost all pairs. However, your play here is fine in my opinion.

On the turn, the pot is 28bb. Do not shove your 104bb stack into that sized pot. For one thing even if your range for him was correct (TT or JJ) I think he would fold. The chances that a worse hand would call here is so slim. Youre only ever going to get called by a set or better. What you should have done is bet something like 20bb which would fold him off hands like A high most of the time and would get called by 9x, 10s, Js and some draws which you are ahead of. If he calls that I think we can bet about half pot on river and fold to a raise. Or check call if you think hes likely to bluff missed draws.
 
micromachine

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Because of this assuming he has a pocket pair TT+ is ridiculous. Open up pokerstove or equilab and have a look at the top 15-20% of hands. That should be about his range on the flop.

He opens 15% of hands overall but I imagine he would open more like 30-35% of hands from CO unless he has no idea about position, which I doubt
 
Eatscake

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He opens 15% of hands overall but I imagine he would open more like 30-35% of hands from CO unless he has no idea about position, which I doubt

Yeah I just read your previous post I think youre quite right about his opening range. But some nits especially at microstakes just have hands they open and hands they dont imo. I think anywhere between 15% and 35% is reasonable to assume although I dont think it makes a huge difference to the hand.
 
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enesem

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Interesting, his VPIP in the cutoff is 15% for tha hands I tracked him with.

I have Pokertracker, whats the equivalent way to find opening hands (as opposed to pokerstove or equilab) ?

That's great advice about the shove though, it's a definite leak of mine.
 
micromachine

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So VPIP from CO is lower than how overall VPIP; either he has no idea of position or, much more likely, the small sample size is skewing it.

I still think his PFR from the CO will be around 30%
 
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swingro

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I watched at your stats . What I can say is that if I were your opponent I would light 4-bet the hell out of you OOP and call IP with some hands and 3-bet others . I would assume that most of the hands that you are calling with are pocket pairs, small suited connectors, one gap suited connectors, suited aces,some suited ks(KT,K9) and probabely QJo and TJo. The rest above these you are 3-betting most of the time (pocket pairs 77+, JTs+,QTs+ KJ,KQ,AQ,AK)
The gap between your VPIP and PFR is too big and your 3-bet is too high. Probabely your flop aggression is high but you give up on the turn a lot
Probabely this is what villain saw and he decided as he should that is profitable to play 88 against you IP because you will probabely miss most of the boards he will float and raise on any turn when you check .
 
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swingro

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WPIP/PFR/3B, You asked us what do we think of your stats. I would not bluff you with air but I would abuze you with any decent hand IP when you 3-bet.
 
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enesem

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Ahh, sorry, I thought you had looked me up somehow. Yeah your assessment is pretty correct on my opening hands.

How can you increase PFR ? It would mean opening with bluffing hands, which makes me vulnerable post flop especially if I am not playing post flop well and can be exploited.
 
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swingro

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Ahh, sorry, I thought you had looked me up somehow. Yeah your assessment is pretty correct on my opening hands.

How can you increase PFR ? It would mean opening with bluffing hands, which makes me vulnerable post flop especially if I am not playing post flop well and can be exploited.
There are a lot of starting hands charts all over net. For tight TAGs that still have problems postflop and loose ones that are good preflop.
Here is one.

Z4i6v

You can increase your PFR playing more hands when you table select correctely. If you have a nit on your left than you can steal with any 2 cards from him, c-bet a lot and get folds when you are at the Button, and you can treat the CO like the Button. If there are bad players in the blinds you can open from early positions with a wider range.
I would not go crazy from the first 2 positions but from CO and Button it is crazyland.
Also 3-bet for value OOP. You do not want to play a marginal hand OOP specially at 5 NL where ppl will not fold IP with a pp or suited connector no matter what.
 
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enesem

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OK, this is useful, I have a similar table I have been using.

I never limp (well, maybe one or twice), I either raise first, call or reraise.

How do you suggest raising pfr rate ? I find doing that I am caught more in a bad flop, so to avoid looking like I am playing fit or fold, I try to float a bluff but usually get caught out.

At the moment, this is the most difficult part of the game to get to grips with for me I think.
 
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swingro

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OK, this is useful, I have a similar table I have been using.

I never limp (well, maybe one or twice), I either raise first, call or reraise.

How do you suggest raising pfr rate ? I find doing that I am caught more in a bad flop, so to avoid looking like I am playing fit or fold, I try to float a bluff but usually get caught out.

At the moment, this is the most difficult part of the game to get to grips with for me I think.
You need to get a hang of the player types and this is a long discussion. It is not a general line. Against different villains you should play according to their type. For micros 5NL I suggest you buy the BlackRain79 book "Crushing the micros" ( It is easy to read and it is cheap. under 30$.) and download JhonA book "Polished Poker vol.1" that is free. They are both members of our forum and they did great work working with beginners.
I would suggest reading them in that order.
 
Eatscake

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Im not sure how familiar you are with SNGs but Id strongly suggest playing a few hundred SNGs and watching some videos on them. If youre struggling with preflop play then you dont really want to be playing cash just yet as postflop is a whole different board game. SNGs are played about 80% preflop so having a weak postflop game is not so bad. Playing these will massively improve you pre and give you a good starting point for cash games. Try playing turbos first and get used to push/shove poker. Once youve cracked preflop you can move to cash and try to improve your postflop skills there.
 
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enesem

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Thanks -

Again, I am not a beginner, i came in from playing 200NL in casinos where I usually either broke even or made 1 or 2 buy ins.

So, I have some bad habits which I am trying to unravel by going back to basics and studying, while working up from micro tables.

My thinking is to deconstruct my game then build up from solid foundations.

Check the blog for progress :>)

I will definitely look out for those books. I have some books plus deuces cracked, so hitting the theory hard. But, Rome wasn't built in a day, so I am really trying not to take on too many concepts too fast.

I am happy with my pre-flop play, but do have some questions, contradictory advice from different sources I need to work out.

But this site is great, all your advice is appreciated and taken on board.
 
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