€25 NLHE 6-max: AA vs aggro donk

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ComplexPlaya

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 79/21/5

Just 19 hands on villain, but he clearly lives up to his stats. 100% donk-bet too, 4/4

I'm thinking his min-raise is most likely a bluff, do I need to 3-bet here to charge possible draws etc. or should I give him the opportunity to barrel again?

SB: €43.23
Hero (BB): €23.88
UTG: €20.00
MP: €23.03
CO: €26.46
BTN: €22.98

SB posts SB €0.10, Hero posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has A:diamond: A:heart:

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls €0.20, fold, Hero raises to €0.70, BTN calls €0.50

Flop: (€1.50, 2 players) 9:spade: J:club: 6:diamond:
Hero bets €1.12, BTN raises to €2.24, Hero ????
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Jam+Fistpump

He doesn't know what barreling is, or how to bluff, and I don't trust him to bet again on the turn. Get the max in now, and raise more preflop.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Jam+Fistpump

He doesn't know what barreling is, or how to bluff, and I don't trust him to bet again on the turn. Get the max in now, and raise more preflop.

Are you serious about jamming? Bet €18 into a €4 pot? How often does that work :)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Are you serious about jamming? Bet €18 into a €4 pot? How often does that work :)
Eewww, didn't look at the stack sizes, but my comment still applies. But in all seriousness, we're looking to get an over pair in here. Just re-raise to a size that lets you shove the turn.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Eewww, didn't look at the stack sizes, but my comment still applies. But in all seriousness, we're looking to get an over pair in here. Just re-raise to a size that lets you shove the turn.

Yeah I did, he folded, I was wondering if trapping wasn't the best option etc.

I would probably flat IP though...thoughts on that ?
 
forsakenone

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i would have called, and bet pot on the turn.
 
Stu_Ungar

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i would have called, and bet pot on the turn.

You are OOP.

If you call.. you have a hand almost always. People dont often call OOP with the intention of bluffing the turn.

So you call, bet the turn and he folds almost always.

If you min raise him back he may spew out on you.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Then stats are virtually meaningless

It's pretty hard for a TAG to get 79/21/5 over 19 hands, almost impossible. This can be proven mathematically with the bayes theorem as well, tho I can't really do the math on that one :)
 
Stu_Ungar

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It's pretty hard for a TAG to get 79/21/5 over 19 hands, almost impossible. This can be proven mathematically with the bayes theorem as well, tho I can't really do the math on that one :)

19 hands is not enough to establish any kind of stats.
 
WVHillbilly

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19 hands is not enough to establish any kind of stats.

It's plenty enough with stats like that to determine that he's bad and that's all we need to know. Now if he was 10/0 over the same sample he could end up anywhere but when you see 70+ vpip numbers and more than 10 hands assume he's a drooler. Get his money before anyone else does because it's very unlikely he'll be around long enough to get his true stats.
 
Stu_Ungar

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What you should do is to assume that a player is average to the stakes you play until you have sufficient evidence that he is not.

Clearly this guy is loose, but how loose? we have no idea.

Stats take a long time to converge, less than 2-300 hands ist meaningless.

When you have few hands on a player, SD hands are more important than stats. If you see someome barrell 3 streets with air.. that tells you far more than stats generated from 19 hands.

Sometimes at the start of a session, I will glance down at my own stats and they can be crazy yet by the end of a session then will have settled down.

Trying to adapt too quickly is a mistake in itself as most of the time, the villian turns out to be an average opponent. If most people didnt turn out to be average, there would be no such thing as an average.
 
Stu_Ungar

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It's plenty enough with stats like that to determine that he's bad and that's all we need to know. Now if he was 10/0 over the same sample he could end up anywhere but when you see 70+ vpip numbers and more than 10 hands assume he's a drooler. Get his money before anyone else does because it's very unlikely he'll be around long enough to get his true stats.


We know he is bad and we hold AA

But what if we held JJ, TT AK on a non AK board?

Assigning the label "manic" will get us into all kinds of trouble
 
vanquish

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also wrt adjusting "too quickly", you wanna make sure u adjust to a guy who is a huge fish asap before someone else takes all his money and you miss out on a buy-in or whatever because you chose not to put faith in the stats you had on him, while some other good player did
 
Stu_Ungar

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if you have a guy who is 70/0 over 19 hands, you can be 99% sure he's a huge donk


What if that settles down to 26/20 and his postflop aggression dips to near zero on the turn?
 
vanquish

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a 70/0 settling down to 26/20 is going to happen like 0.0001% of the time in real life
 
Stu_Ungar

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What about if his raise flop cbet is high but he dosnt continue beyond that without a big hand?
 
Stu_Ungar

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a 70/0 settling down to 26/20 is going to happen like 0.0001% of the time in real life

I disagree simply because my own stats can be crazy at the start of a session.

Its not 70/0 its 70/21

well 79?21 but his PFR inst 0 which would be interesting
 
vanquish

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im not talking about this particular villain, i'm saying that placing absolutely no faith in stats just because its only 20 hands or whatever can often cost you a ton of money


you can theorize all you want about all the particular nuances of a player's stats and how they might be skewed by the fact that its not a "significant" sample of hands, but in reality, if you're not a hudbot, you should probably just take the leap and assume the guy is a donk and play accordingly unless something changes (in the case of his first 20 hands heavily indicating that he is a donk, that is)
 
Stu_Ungar

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In this hand we hold AA so its fairly easy to play it hard and fast.

But once we assign the label of "manic" to a player that is going to be costly when playing hands of lesser value.
 
vanquish

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you just have to construct a range and play it accordingly
 
Stu_Ungar

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Say you hold QQ and the board is AT6

How many streets do you call down?

Now with more hands I could happily call 3 streets and a shove, but as is the label of "manic" isnt helpful as it isnt based on enough hands.
 
vanquish

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idk exactly what you're talking about with "the label of manic" but you base it on information, game flow, and other reads that you make because you're a poker player.

also QQ on a AT6 is probably the bottom of your range, so itd be fine to call 1 street, or perhaps maybe two, but its kinda like KQ on a T94r board in a HU match. you might call a street or two, but its the bottom of your range so you shouldn't be overly concerned about having to fold to avoid a more costly mistake later
 
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