€20 NLHE 6-max: Shove over cbet on the flop

€20 NL HE 6-max: Shove over cbet on the flop

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 48/11/2

I had 408 hands on villain.

€0.10/€0.20 No Limit Holdem
Entraction
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG GutariOsuu (€20)
CO SLOMIP (€16.89)
BTN Hero (€28.03)
SB alex_992 (€6.18)
BB GypsyEX (€45.72)

Pre-Flop: (€0.30, 5 players) Hero is BTN K:spade: 10:club:
1 fold, SLOMIP calls €0.20, Hero raises to €1, 2 folds, SLOMIP calls €0.80

Flop: J:diamond: K:diamond: 2:heart: (€2.30, 2 players)
SLOMIP checks, Hero bets €1.40, SLOMIP goes all-in €15.89, Hero ????

408 hands and no read? just fold it. its a gamble Vs range of weak draws, medium strength draws, combo draws, top pair good kicker and 2 pair+

I snapcall. I'd be very, very, very, very surprised if you're not ahead of his holding. This is a weak draw, a hand like AJ or a weak king almost always. I even think QQ is more likely than AK.

Bad players just don't play strong hands like this. I'm going to look like an idiot if you called and say that he had TT, but then this guy is the exception to prove the rule.

F Paulsson said:

I snapcall. I'd be very, very, very, very surprised if you're not ahead of his holding. This is a weak draw, a hand like AJ or a weak king almost always. I even think QQ is more likely than AK.

Bad players just don't play strong hands like this. I'm going to look like an idiot if you called and say that he had TT, but then this guy is the exception to prove the rule.

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disagree. A fish can frequently play top pair good kicker and 2 pair+ this way fearing draws. Of course he can also play the nut flush draw this way. We are not significantly ahead of an unknown's pushing range imo. However, I'm calling all the time with a simple read on how villain plays post flop. Which OP likely should have after 408 hands.

reverie said:

disagree. A fish can frequently play top pair good kicker and 2 pair+ this way fearing draws.

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What percentage of players that fit the description would you say would play their big hands this way? "Can frequently" is a bit vague. I don't think I've ever seen anyone that fits the bill play a big hand this way, and that's coming from a calling station that has seen a lot of showdowns.

reverie said:

disagree. A fish can frequently play top pair good kicker and 2 pair+ this way fearing draws. Of course he can also play the nut flush draw this way. We are not significantly ahead of an unknown's pushing range imo. However, I'm calling all the time with a simple read on how villain plays post flop. Which OP likely should have after 408 hands.

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To answer your reading question that you insist on...I'm not ashamed to say they're data-mined hands I bought. Before you jump up, the TOU for the site I play at doesn't say anything about that either way, so I'm not breaking any rules with it.

F Paulsson said:

I snapcall. I'd be very, very, very, very surprised if you're not ahead of his holding. This is a weak draw, a hand like AJ or a weak king almost always. I even think QQ is more likely than AK.

Bad players just don't play strong hands like this. I'm going to look like an idiot if you called and say that he had TT, but then this guy is the exception to prove the rule.

Click to expand...

Those were exactly my thoughts, so I wanted to check out my line of thinking here. Seen and called alot of fish all-ins with flush draws, straight draws, even middle/low pair.

I called and he had a set of 2's, go figure. But it means they should still be very profitable calls in that long run if he's the exception for this type of player (unless there are too many exceptions like this, added with their made draws...but I am hoping there won't be)

F Paulsson said:

What percentage of players that fit the description would you say would play their big hands this way? "Can frequently" is a bit vague. I don't think I've ever seen anyone that fits the bill play a big hand this way, and that's coming from a calling station that has seen a lot of showdowns.

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I forgot to look at those stats, perhaps I should have, WTSD=27% and W$SD=48%, pretty normal, that gets me thinking he's a fish pre-flop more than anything else

F Paulsson said:

What percentage of players that fit the description would you say would play their big hands this way? "Can frequently" is a bit vague. I don't think I've ever seen anyone that fits the bill play a big hand this way, and that's coming from a calling station that has seen a lot of showdowns.

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Yeah I've played a lot of hands too. I don't have an exact percentage of fish who play big hands fast on relatively draw heavy flops so I'll have to continue to use terms like "frequently". I would also like to reiterate that I'm calling all the time with the read that villain is often playing draws and semi-bluffs fast or has a history of spaz shoving.

ComplexPlaya: If stats are so important that you datamine how about looking up some postflop stats?