Check to induce bluff - yea or nay?

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viking999

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Stacks: - the108 with $38.55 - Oshoster with $20.25 - snowmandoman with $32.15 - novacane_27 with $46.20 - viking999 with $60.00 - brads911 with $55.50 - st0rm_sh4dow with $40.00 - Abuba with $10.00

index.pl


index.pl

Site: full tilt poker
Dealt to viking999:
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* - Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* - snowmandoman raises to $3 viking999 calls [$3]
* - Folds: 5
* - Potsize: $6.75
Flop:
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8s.gif
9h.gif

* - snowmandoman bets [$3] viking999 calls [$3]
* - Potsize: $12.75
Turn:
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* - snowmandoman checks viking999 checks
* - Potsize: $12.75
River:
9s.gif

* - snowmandoman bets [$5] viking999 calls [$5]
Results:
* - snowmandoman shows :
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ac.gif

* - viking999 shows :
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th.gif
viking999 wins the pot ($21.65) with two pair, Tens and Nines

Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

I had no read on the opponent. Decided to mix it up a bit by making a very weak looking check on the turn to induce a river bluff (I was planning on calling any river, except maybe an ace). It worked out here. Do you think it's worth the risk in general?
 
Insomniac_1006

Insomniac_1006

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It was unlikely that the flop hit him, since he bet out 6 x the big blind. Or he just didn't know what he was doing or he's a mega donk.

Then he bet half the pot. If he knew what he was doing, he was representing AA or KK and probably would have put you to the test after the flop.

but I haven't read HoH, yet... and am just learing hand anas

I wouldn't have checked, in your position. prolly...
 
P

phatjose

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I think that if you bet on the turn you probably scare him off. Flop bet looks like a C bet and with him checking the turn and slowing down, he is definitely scared of the fact that you might have him beat. If he truly had an over pair, I would have expected a pot size bet or so from him on the flop. So yes, checking to induce a bet is a good call here.
 
blankoblanco

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good pot control line. A9 or most 9s for that matter aren't checking the turn IME, but given preflop raise i think he rarely has a lone 9 anyway. once he checks turn, he's generally either got air (overcards, most likely) or a set taking the standard "okay my c-bet didn't work, i give up" line, possibly a tricky AA or KK with the same mindset. checking behind the turn saves money against the ones that beat you while getting max value out of air.

people are often too worried about allowing drawing in cash games. if he's got two random cards above a 9, he has 6 outs to improve on the river. put simply, the times that he'll see your check on the turn and fire at least 1/2 the pot with air on the river generally outweighs the 14% of the time he outdraws you as far as pure EV.

only exception to that last statement would be if you had a read that the guy really rarely bluffed/stabbed at pots at all beyond c-bets, and in that case betting the turn and folding to a raise is probably the best line. against most players at 50NL and beyond, your line is good.
 
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joeeagles

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combuboom said:
good pot control line. A9 or most 9s for that matter aren't checking the turn IME, but given preflop raise i think he rarely has a lone 9 anyway. once he checks turn, he's generally either got air (overcards, most likely) or a set taking the standard "okay my c-bet didn't work, i give up" line, possibly a tricky AA or KK with the same mindset. checking behind the turn saves money against the ones that beat you while getting max value out of air.

people are often too worried about allowing drawing in cash games. if he's got two random cards above a 9, he has 6 outs to improve on the river. put simply, the times that he'll see your check on the turn and fire at least 1/2 the pot with air on the river generally outweighs the 14% of the time he outdraws you as far as pure EV.

only exception to that last statement would be if you had a read that the guy really rarely bluffed/stabbed at pots at all beyond c-bets, and in that case betting the turn and folding to a raise is probably the best line. against most players at 50NL and beyond, your line is good.
Click to expand...

Yep, not much to add to this. It's always worth it to take that small risk of getting outdrawn vs inducing a bluff.

The only thing I can add to what combu says is that, at times, PP's bigger than tens, such as JJ or QQ, will take this line also because when they don't improve and their c-bet on the flop gets called they try to get to showdown cheaply. So while they do slow down the betting, they will call bets and in that case if you fire turn and river it'll cost you more. There is also the chance you get raised from those hands and I think that's what combu meant when he said bet/fold to a raise on the turn.

In conclusion your line was good for both inducing a bluff from lesser hands and pot control against hands that are WA of us. In the former case it's vs a 14% chance of getting outdrawn, so definitely a +EV play.

Good job.
 
Bombjack

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I prolly just bet the turn. Most likely you have the best hand, and he may call with just overs. There are a LOT of scare cards that can hit for you on the river, and if he's a good player, he'll be betting most of them whether he hits or not. You also need to bet here to disguise the times when you've floated with something like a straight draw, which you can also bet on the turn as a semibluff, hoping for a fold.
 
dj11

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I do not check to induce a bluff here. At the flop I would have made every sane effort to take this pot down then.
 
blankoblanco

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Bombjack said:
There are a LOT of scare cards that can hit for you on the river, and if he's a good player, he'll be betting most of them whether he hits or not.
Click to expand...

dude you just explained exactly why to check. he's missing wayy more than he's hitting. therefore, check behind and call a river bet, then profit.

Bombjack said:
You also need to bet here to disguise the times when you've floated with something like a straight draw, which you can also bet on the turn as a semibluff, hoping for a fold.
Click to expand...

some bit of merit to this but i think all the immediate value takes way more precedence to thinking about such specific meta game at full ring 50nl
 
Bombjack

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Just seems like a very passive line. I suppose it's OK if you're against a very aggressive opponent who will bluff a lot of rivers, but with no reads as OP says, most people won't bet the river, and I don't think letting someone freeroll you to the river then paying them off if they hit and bet is optimal. So my answer to the OP is that it's player dependent. It worked out this time, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the winningest play versus an unknown.
 
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