Call or raise this river?

Stacks:
* MP1 with $100.00
* MP2 with $51.85
* MP3 with $75.45
* CO with $98.00
* BTN with $98.35
* SB with $100.50
* BB with $21.50
* UTG with $99.00
* UTG+1 with $126.10




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to CO:8♣ 9♣
* * Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * UTG+1 raises to $3.50
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$3.50]
* * 3 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $8.5
Flop:
* * A♠ 3♦ 9♠
* * UTG+1 checks
* * Hero checks
* * Potsize: $8.5
Turn:
* * K♦
* * UTG+1 checks
* * Hero checks
* * Potsize: $8.5
River:
* * 9♥
* * UTG+1 bets [$7]
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero ???

Raise. Villain's range is huge, and we're ahead of it. Simple enough. We could easily be called by a passively played king, or a pocket pair.

However, I'd keep the raise on the smallish side. Villain's range is pretty weak (he'd bet an ace earlier), and its going to be hard for a king or a hand like JJ to call a raise. I'd bump it up to $16.

I'd raise to 18-20 so he can call with an A or a K, but you have to be prepared to fold if your villain re-raises as his range would then be very strongly weighted to AA/KK.

If you're not comfortable with folding to a reraise, then just call the river.

Raise raise raise no question about it. Agreed that you might expect a reraise but your hand is well diguised, and putting him on a better set or a 9 with a better kicker that played is unlikely. I think the 15 to 20 range is right.

Edited. Was gonna say raise. On closer look, a call seems more sensible. AA, KK are both possible, but since you didn't give us any info on him, I can't give him credit for that small a range. He may have been betting with a weak Ace, or KQ and just be trying to get some value out of a hand that probably missed you, or he could have a hand like A9s in which case your done. Your kicker is much to weak to get excited about this hand. Call or raise if you will, but not so much that your pot committed should he shove.

Four Dogs said:

I'd raise here and easily stack if he pushes. AA, KK are a possiblity, but you haven't given us any info on him, so I just can't give him credit for that small a range. I RR to about $30. KQ might still call this.

Click to expand...

Raising is standard here, but I really disagree with stacking. What hands are stacking us that we have beat?

Villain does not have an A, we can rule that out. Even AA will not check twice into that flop. Any A and villain probably bets the flop to take it down or see where he stands.

K hits on the turn and Villain checks again. I don't think he slow plays a K here. If he hit on the turn he is betting.

9 hits on the river and he bets $7, so what could he reasonably have that beats you..A9,K9,J9,T9. We can reasonably rule out A9 and K9 and it is tough to raise $3.50 with J9 from early position. Even T9 would be a pretty aggressive play.

I put Villain on QQ trying to represent a 9. The flop was bad for QQ, it didn't help when the K hit, now a 9 hits but you have checked all the way so Villain is taking a stab at the pot. It is also possible 6 handed Villain raised with mid PP, but when an A hit and then K he backed off.

I agree with the other posters, you raise for value but be ready to fold if he goes over the top. All of the above is based on him not slow playing a monster like AA or A9. I would raise $14 to $21 depending on your read.

So the general consensus is to raise to about $20 and fold to a shove, I'll do that next time a similar situation comes up it seems like the right play.

Here's what happened. I thought a long time before just calling. If this were the middle/late stages of a tournament I would definetly raise, or if villian was shortstacked I would put him all in. But he could ruin me if he reraised all in with a boat and I called (mighta been able to lay it down but it woulda been tuff). But if he had AK raising could very likely result in a call, so smooth calling loses value. Anyway he had KK and won with a boat.

Nice play..it is hard to put him on KK. The A on the flop slowed him down which helped conceal his hand when he improved on the turn.

ChuckTs said:

Raising is standard here, but I really disagree with stacking. What hands are stacking us that we have beat?

Click to expand...

Ah, I see you quoted me in the 2 minutes it took me to reconsider before I edited.

Agreed. My edited post is better. I gotta learn to type faster.

You def made the right move with just the call. The possibility of aa or kk is huge and he made the right bets to get you just to call which should be a warning sign.

One thing's clear though, if we raise we simply have to fold to a re-raise, no question about it. With a pair on the board, even AK just flat calls this raise. Basically the only things that 3-bet this river are sets/boats (A9/K9/93) or maybe another 9. The majority of 9s that raise preflop have us crushed.