bluffing on the river at 10NL

Credible enough to be profitable?

pokerstars Game #17593765560: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/05/21 - 16:53:05 (ET)
Table 'Meissa II' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: txotas ($6.40 in chips)
Seat 2: momobello19 ($4.20 in chips)
Seat 3: BelgoSuisse ($9 in chips)
Seat 4: iestyn500 ($21.10 in chips)
Seat 5: olmanbrenner ($3.75 in chips)
Seat 6: mezzanin ($5.80 in chips)
Seat 7: trotamundos1 ($10.25 in chips)
Seat 9: SirNiro ($2.40 in chips)
iestyn500: posts small blind $0.05
olmanbrenner: posts big blind $0.10
maidencita: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [8h Qh]
mezzanin: folds
trotamundos1: folds
SirNiro: folds
txotas: calls $0.10
momobello19: folds
BelgoSuisse: raises $0.30 to $0.40
iestyn500: calls $0.35
olmanbrenner: folds
txotas: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [Th 3s 5h]
iestyn500: bets $0.50
txotas: calls $0.50
BelgoSuisse: calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [Th 3s 5h] [9c]
iestyn500: checks
txotas: checks
BelgoSuisse: bets $1.50
iestyn500: calls $1.50
txotas: calls $1.50
*** RIVER *** [Th 3s 5h 9c] [Ad]
iestyn500: checks
txotas: checks
BelgoSuisse: bets $6.60 and is all-in

Gotta be honest, it looks a fair bit like what it is - a busted flush draw. It could be a busted flush draw that contained the Ah I guess, something like AQh or AJh.

I think my biggest problem is that the flop and turn action tells a conflicting story: the flat call on the flop says you're drawing, but the bet on the turn says you think you're ahead... even though the 9 couldn't have helped a drawing hand.

Something like a set might take that line, but are the players at this level enough clever to pick up on that?

Which is the major point, I guess - you'd need reads on the players to get a better idea of your chances. I suspect you probably get looked up by most aces, JJ (figure QQ+ probably re-raises you before the flop), and you definitely get looked up by AT, T9 and sets.

OzExorcist said:

Which is the major point, I guess - you'd need reads on the players to get a better idea of your chances.

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I don't have their PT stats here at work, but the general table mood was totally lacking action. I had been sitting for 2 hours and never once got to play for stacks on any of my good hands.

Well how often does this bluff have to work? There's $7.30 in the pot, and we're shoving $6.60 into it.

So when it works, we earn $7.30, when it doesn't work, we lose an additional $6.60. So its gotta work 47% of the time to make us a profit. Are we getting looked up half the time.... hard to say.

The main issue I have with this bluff is not how believable it is, its that we're doing it to 2 opponents. We have to avoid not one, but two opponents from looking us up here.

Also, there's really no reason to shove. Shoving does a number of bad things:

1) It looks like we want them to fold, its a bit obvious what we're doing.
2) It makes our bluff have to work quite often to get value.

If I were to bluff this river, I'd add another 1$ or so to what I would usually value bet. And more importantly, I would certainly not bluff into two opponents!

So yeah, I'd like to see the hand look like this:

*** TURN *** [Th 3s 5h] 9♣
iestyn500: checks
txotas: checks
BelgoSuisse: bets $1.50
iestyn500: calls $1.50
txotas: *folds*
*** RIVER *** [Th 3s 5h 9c] A♦
iestyn500: checks
BelgoSuisse: bets $3.75 into $5.80

That needs to succeed 39% of the time to be effective, it looks more like a valuebet, and additionally there's 1 less opponent. Throw in a read that opponent draws to a lot of bad draws, or is weak, and bam, you have yourself a better looking bluff.

EDIT - One last thing. When you're bluffing, you need to consider that a lot of times, what your opponents will be calling down with are bad draws. I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of your villains had 67 here (which you beat). So even if you check, you can still beat a lot of those "bad draw" type hands. So try to avoid situations where you're bluffing at pots you don't need to bluff at to win. Sometimes you can just check, and your king high will take the pot down. Even if you have a shred of showdown value, you might want to consider using that, instead of firing out the rest of your stack into 2 peely villains.

c9h13no3 said:

So when it works, we earn $7.30, when it doesn't work, we lose an additional $6.60. So its gotta work 47% of the time to make us a profit

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Actually, estyn500 covers me, so against him these numbers are correct, but txotas only has $4 left. So if estyn500 folds, we only risk $4 to potentially gain $7.30, so it only needs to work 35% of the time on txotas.

Also, I'm betting less than the pot, so going all in is not a big overbet here.

OzExorcist said:

Gotta be honest, it looks a fair bit like what it is - a busted flush draw.

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Busted flush draws don't bet the turn, do they?

BelgoSuisse said:

Busted flush draws don't bet the turn, do they?

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I see a lot of the usual aggro guys bet every street with the nut flush draw...

Also, keep in mind with the shoving dealie. We're not trying to fold out good hands on the river. We're just trying to fold out hands with more show down value than us (no one is laying down an ace here, and you'll still often get looked up by, say KT). We want hands like 88, a pair of 9's, or a pair of 5's to fold. Things that if we checked it down, we would lose the hand. Getting your opponents to drop top pair at low stakes is a hell of a task.

c9h13no3 said:

I see a lot of the usual aggro guys bet every street with the nut flush draw...

Also, keep in mind with the shoving dealie. We're not trying to fold out good hands on the river. We're just trying to fold out hands with more show down value than us (no one is laying down an ace here, and you'll still often get looked up by, say KT). We want hands like 88, a pair of 9's, or a pair of 5's to fold. Things that if we checked it down, we would lose the hand. Getting your opponents to drop top pair at low stakes is a hell of a task.

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I fully agree. The key here is not so much what we represent (I think 99 is what fits our bets the best, but villains may not care at 10NL) but what hands our opponents have.

I think we probably get looked up by Aces, two pairs and sets, but get lower paired hands and busted draws to fold.

estyn500 bet the flop, then check-called the turn. Looks to me like a made hand on flop but not a very good one. top pair (T) lousy kicker or second pair that did not improve by the turn.

txotas called both flop and turn. Looks like a draw, and no draw was completed by the river card.

Based on that read, I think that
- if I check, i lose the showdown to estyn500.
- if I bluff, there's a very good chance that both players fold if they don't have an A.

Therefore I choose the bluff and both opponents fold.

Do you agree with this analysis?

Bluffing into 2 opponents is always a very risky thing, especially at NL10 where you might very well get looked up here by a T or somebody might have called you down with an ace.

BelgoSuisse said:

- if I bluff, there's a very good chance that both players fold if they don't have an A.

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The analysis is okay, just keep in mind that a lot of flush draws are the *ace high* flush draw. And while your passive opponents won't bet it on the river, they may call you down with Ah6h (as backwards as that seems).

Its just a very weird story you're telling. You either have a set, or total air. And while I agree, both opponents played very weakly, you gotta realize that at 10$ NL that doesn't mean they ain't calling.

BelgoSuisse said:

Busted flush draws don't bet the turn, do they?

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It was still a regular flush draw on the turn though, not a busted one. Plenty of players semi-bluff there, especially if their opponents have shown weakness.

Your line might represent 99, but then why did you flat call the flop? You were the pre-flop aggressor and there's only one overcard - wouldn't you have c-bet there?

I think that the flop is definitely the biggest problem here. As the pre-flop aggressor, you could have represented something like JJ+ on the flop by re-raising - that would have been a fairly believable line. Not doing that really tipped the strength of your hand.

Also remember that your opponents aren't going to put you on just one hand. They'll put you on a range of hands - they may figure you have 99 some of the time, but something like a busted flush draw a lot more of the time.

I don't think they're figuring you for 99, BTW, because they both called the turn. It's unlikely that they're both going to change their mind about you having it on the river after they called the turn.

So - I suggest the key here is very much what hand you represent - if your opponents figure you for a busted flush draw even half the time then they probably call you with those lower pairs that you're trying to fold out.

c9 also makes a good point: this far into the hand, on that board, if you don't have the Ah draw it's likely that someone else does.

OzExorcist said:

Also remember that your opponents aren't going to put you on just one hand. They'll put you on a range of hands

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Roflcopter! His opponents aren't at that level. His opponents are looking at their hands and wondering "Gee, I wonder what he has! I want to call, but I don't want to lose money! What do I do?"

At this level, what you're repping is somewhat important (because it needs to be something better than what they've got, and the more obvious the better). But what's most important is image. Do they know you bluff? Are they stations? These are the BIG questions right here. Bluffing is a play against a player, and if you don't have good reads on the player, you probably should be making plays against them.

OK, it's possible they're stupid and won't put you on a range of hands at all.

But if they're only thinking about their hands, then surely a move like this is completely insane: no way are we folding both of them out if they've bet / called down this far.

Either the hand we're representing is important, or we should've just given up and not put any more money in the pot without improving.