re: Poker & bluffing on the river at 10NL
Well how often does this bluff have to work? There's $7.30 in the pot, and we're shoving $6.60 into it.
So when it works, we earn $7.30, when it doesn't work, we lose an additional $6.60. So its gotta work 47% of the time to make us a profit. Are we getting looked up half the time.... hard to say.
The main issue I have with this bluff is not how believable it is, its that we're doing it to 2 opponents. We have to avoid not one, but two opponents from looking us up here.
Also, there's really no reason to shove. Shoving does a number of bad things:
1) It looks like we want them to fold, its a bit obvious what we're doing.
2) It makes our bluff have to work quite often to get value.
If I were to bluff this river, I'd add another 1$ or so to what I would usually value bet. And more importantly, I would certainly not bluff into two opponents!
So yeah, I'd like to see the hand look like this:
*** TURN *** [Th 3s 5h] 9♣
BelgoSuisse: bets $1.50
iestyn500: calls $1.50
*** RIVER *** [Th 3s 5h 9c] A♦
BelgoSuisse: bets $3.75 into $5.80
That needs to succeed 39% of the time to be effective, it looks more like a valuebet, and additionally there's 1 less opponent. Throw in a read that opponent draws to a lot of bad draws, or is weak, and bam, you have yourself a better looking bluff.
EDIT - One last thing. When you're bluffing
, you need to consider that a lot of times, what your opponents will be calling down with are bad draws. I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of your villains had 67 here (which you beat). So even if you check, you can still beat a lot of those "bad draw" type hands. So try to avoid situations where you're bluffing at pots you don't need to bluff at to win. Sometimes you can just check, and your king high will take the pot down. Even if you have a shred of showdown value, you might want to consider using that, instead of firing out the rest of your stack into 2 peely villains.