Bluff That River??? [nl50 FR]

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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And now it time for everyone’s favorite game show….

bluff
That
RIVER???

Now you all know how we play the game, I’ll give you a hand and you simply state bluff or no bluff. If you choose bluff I’ll also need the dollar amount you wish to bluff. Once you’ve locked in your answers I’ll reveal the results and award points accordingly.

Everyone clear?

[Audience agrees]

Great then let the bluffing begin…

Villain is basically unknown but stats over 20 hands are 10/0/1
Hero has had great cards and has basically been running over the table but playing something like 22/20/6. Other than being involved in a lot of hands hero's image is clean.



--------------------
HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $10 (20 bb)
BB: $36.15 (72.3 bb)
UTG+1: $22.05 (44.1 bb)
UTG+2: $51.20 (102.4 bb)
MP1: $109.85 (219.7 bb)
MP2: $10 (20 bb)
Hero (MP3): $109.45 (218.9 bb)
CO: $74.35 (148.7 bb)
BTN: $48.25 (96.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with 5
spade.gif
5
heart.gif

4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 6
spade.gif
6
club.gif
2
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, BTN calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.25) 3
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.10, Hero calls $6.10

River: ($20.45) Q
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero ???



So we have a paired board and the flush draw gets there, bluff that river?
 
J

jyow

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not necessarily a bluff but i think you should make a defensive bet. maybe about $12-$14. you dont want to check it then make a tough decision when he bets. he'll only reraise you if he has the nut flush or full house. or he might even fold
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I don't particularly like a bluff. You'll get a decent chunk of folds, sure, but the vast majority of those folds will be from hands that you beat anyway that peeled the flop with overs and took a stab at the turn when you checked.

What's our target range for him to fold? 77-JJ? What other hands that are better than ours would fold if we bet? No, the more I think about it the less enthusiastic I am about bluffing this river. You have a great bluff catcher; use it.
 
ChuckTs

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Yeah, basically what fp said. The hands we're trying to fold out are either hands we beat or hands that will basically never fold for one bet. Your line makes no sense either unless someone's putting you specifically on a backdoor flush draw, in which case you probably would have bet the turn. People never ever believe backdoor draws anyways.

But ya, we rarely if ever fold out anything better than our hand. FR I just check-fold the river, but probably just ch-f the turn.
 
chinababy8

chinababy8

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i i agree with CHUCK there is no sense to bluff the river all u can do is try to get a cheap showdown but prolly u are beat so the best option would be check-fold my gues that has K6 suited or A6 was defending blind and floped trips
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I guess I thought his range was weighted more toward pocket pairs over my fives (77-JJ) but reading the replies here the more I think I was just wrong in that assumption.
 
BelgoSuisse

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I guess I thought his range was weighted more toward pocket pairs over my fives (77-JJ) but reading the replies here the more I think I was just wrong in that assumption.

Well, you can probably fold those by shoving the river, but there's a lot more hands in his range that you don't need to bluff out because you beat them already, or that won't fold anyway.

I think the real question is: do we check/fold or check/call ?
 
F

feitr

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Trying to represent a backdoor flush is never a good idea imo.

As said, you beat everything you could ever hope to fold out and you are representing such a tiny range that nobody is going to fold a pp here. You really have to represent AQ to think you can get a fold from a pp (coz 88 basically = JJ = AA here) and since you cannot realistically represent AQ given your line, the Q is never a scare card...only the club and yea nobody ever believes that you have hit a backdoor flush. fwiw i think a turn fold is fine, since 55 basically is A high for all intensive purposes and you can't call a river bet (and i really do expect this to be a hand like 77-TT).
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Well as you may have guessed I bet ($14.50) and he used all his time bank before calling...with (44). I couldn't believe that I could be called here by anything that I beat but that's exactly what happened. I do think this thread has helped me see that my line here made no sense and that it was a pretty horrible spewy river bet.

Thanks.
 
F

feitr

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omg, then you don't title the thread "Bluff That River???" but "Value Bet this River???".
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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omg, then you don't title the thread "Bluff That River???" but "Value Bet this River???".

Yeah turned out that way but I assure you I assumed the only way I was winning this hand was to "bluff" the river. I should have figured at the time how horrible my line looked if he looked me up with pocket fours. He did get a note that says DO NOT BLUFF, VALUE BET!
 
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