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i desire love

i desire love

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Here is the situation,

Playing 1$-2$ Nl in a casino last night. I have a 300$ stack, doubled up earlier and i pick up 33 in the cut off. I raise to 7, Sb calls and BB folds. Flops comes 3 7 K, with 2 hearts. Sb checks i bet 10 and i min raises to 20. That tells me pretty much hes on a draw, so i raise to 50 and he flat calls me. Turn comes 6 of hearts. Bad card for me. He bets 70$. I do have redraws to hit FH, bout 2 to 1 on my call. So i called and hit another 3 on the river. Guy moves in for 92 more, obv call for me and i show quads. My question is was that a fair enough call on the turn?? i Know u have 33% cahnce of improving your hand when u hit a set on the flop... so was that right call?
 
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feitr

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$70 to win ~$277 giving you basically 1:4 (with implied odds) with ~3.5:1 odds to draw to your boat/quads so yea obviously nothing wrong with the call even if you knew his range was only flushes (which is like never the case).
 
ActAsIf

ActAsIf

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Whats in the pot?
PF: you raise to $7 and SB calls your $7 +BB blind $1 = $15
Flop: after all the raising is done on this street you've raised to $50 straight and he's called you= $100
Add turn: his bet of $70.
Total in pot: $185

you have to call $70 to win $185 at this point, with one card to come.
pot odds: 185/70 = 2.6 to 1
Odds to hit a FH with one card to come (holding trips): 17% = 4.8 to 1

You didn't have correct odds to call on the turn, even if the guy was guaranteed to put his remaining $92 in on the river.
eg. $185 + $92 = $277 divided by $70 turn call = 3.95 to 1 (still doesn't equal the 4.8 to 1 underdog you were on the turn).

I'm glad you got lucky, but the math wasn't there to make the $70 call.
 
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feitr

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Except that you have 10 outs to fill up with a set so that is ~3.5:1 not 4.8:1
 
dsvw56

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Plus the fact that he doesnt ALWAYS have a flush.
 
ActAsIf

ActAsIf

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See kids? This is what happens when you sniff glue before writing an opinion. Bad math. Apparently I couldn't count to 10 (outs). Thanks feitr.

Soooo.....using the correct number of 3.5:1 (22%) to hit the FH on the river (thank you feitr) you see that the correct move is to fold to the bet on the turn unless you assume he will call/move all-in on the river. Then you are getting 3.95:1 pot odds to 3.5:1 odds to make your hand.

You'd probably have to be 85% sure he'd call an all-in on the river to make this a mathematically correct play. I haven't had my morning coffee yet. I'm not going to try to do the weighted average because I know I'll be forced to check my math, so I'm just guestimating here.

Yah, and a while after I posted I realized my donk-math but couldn't find how to edit it.
 
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viking999

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Plus the fact that he doesnt ALWAYS have a flush.

^^^^^ THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ARGUMENT ^^^^^

He can't have K7 and is making a feeler bet on the heart? He can't have AK with the A of hearts (or depending on what the hearts were, the K of hearts)? He can't be totally losing his mind and pushing bare AK or KQ too far? I think it's too much to assume that he has the flush 100% here. Even if he usually has the flush, a small chance of him being crushed has a big impact on the EV. In fact, I wouldn't be able to fold this hand to a river bet, so I'd probably shove the turn to get value from a one heart or K7 type hand.

For the sake of completeness, I would ALWAYS raise to more than $50 on the flop. Given that you're so sure he had a flush draw, I'd think you would want to raise a lot more.
 
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feitr

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I think everybody can agree that villain will show up with non-flush hands that are dominated by hero some of the time. But pretty sure that OP just wanted to know if it was a correct odds call, presuming that villain shows up with a flush here 100% of the time.

And for alot of ppl this is almost always a flush because a set/top2 would get it in on the flop and they aren't bluff raising or making a spewy flop play with 45 which is the only draw that got there.
 
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viking999

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Well, I can agree that it is significant that even in the hypothetical worst case scenario, he still has odds to call. But it's important to realize that in closer decisions than this one, even a 10% chance of an unusual, unexpected hand can make a big difference (especially if you'd have those hands crushed or they crush you). I only brought it up because it sounded like the OP was assuming that the villain had the flush, to the point where he would have folded the turn without good enough odds or folded on the river unimproved.
 
i desire love

i desire love

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The flop min raise just pretty muxch told me he was on draw, so to be sure i raised him, and he flat called.What other hand can he min raise with?
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

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The flop min raise just pretty muxch told me he was on draw, so to be sure i raised him, and he flat called.What other hand can he min raise with?

AK? KQ? K7? Don't know much about the guy, but it stands to reason if he's playing live $1/2 he's horrible. He could even have like JJ here.
 
i desire love

i desire love

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AK? KQ? K7? Don't know much about the guy, but it stands to reason if he's playing live $1/2 he's horrible. He could even have like JJ here.

I dont get the point....guy is horrible because he's playing 1/2 live?
 
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feitr

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Let's just say that 1/2 live is not noted for its competent players.
 
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titch11

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i agree with your call. but if u didnt hit the final 3 on the river and no heart came out and he bet big what would you do then???

do u assume hes either two pair? got the flush? top pair? or bluffing?

or do u think your set is good enough to win before the final card comes?

all these things need considering before you knowing the final card as wthis will help you to decide what play to make in case you dont hit what you are after
 
eNTy

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I think it's gonna be extremely hard to fold this hand on the river if no heart comes and we don't fill up. I could be wrong, and I suck too hard to do the pot odds. But I don't think I'd fold this on the river..

Anyone disagree ?
 
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titch11

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i agree if no heart comes im definaetly playing. i suck at odds to so wont bother trying
 
eNTy

eNTy

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I assume you mean the 4th heart right ? Like after the heart came on the turn ?
 
i desire love

i desire love

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You're saying there are more fish 1/2 live then 1/2 online? Yeah maybe... but i did not consider him has a fish actually, he had been playing his hands pretty good.
 
ChuckTs

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err not maybe, definitely. 200nl live plays like 10nl or worse, and his line doesn't really lead me to believe he plays well.

If you're so sure he's on a draw on the flop, why are you only reraising to $50?

His range probably will consist of a good chunk of flush draws though, and against that range you want to get value early in the hand before he either misses his draw and shuts down, or hits his draw and we cry.

Assuming you're both $300 deep, raise flop to $100 or so and shove any turn.
 
dsvw56

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You're saying there are more fish 1/2 live then 1/2 online? Yeah maybe... but i did not consider him has a fish actually, he had been playing his hands pretty good.

I'm saying that the players in general at live 1/2 games are horrible. Since you gave no specific read in your question, you have to assume he's horrible until he proves otherwise.
 
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