Big pot with AK

vvanns

vvanns

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Hi cash game players, love to hear your opinion about next hand:

So it's a late night nl20 full ring cash game with some tilting players. All the players in the pot have same stack 15 euro wich is 75 big blinds

Blinds 0.10-0.20

UTG (loose fish 48-25 who just lost a big pot) raises to 0.60

UTG +2 (new guy just entered the game, no stats) reraises to 1.50

I am middle position with AK offsuit, I'm not worried about loose fish, but I am worried about the new guy, so I decide to JUST CALL the 1.50

Folded to the button with another loose fish 78-9 who calls the 1.50

Regs on the blinds fold and back to UTG who decides to make it 4.60

UTG+2 (that I was worried about) just calls 4.60

Now I'm suddenly not worried the new guy has a monster and also don't respect the 4bet of the loose fish,

so I JAM my remaining stack in for 14.60

Loose fish on the button calls

Loose fish UTG calls

New guy calls

Showdown:

UTG (loose fish) = TT

UTG +2 (new guy) = 99

me AK

Loose fish on the button KQ suited

Board 5 4 7 4 A

I ship the 53.58 euro pot.

I had a discussion with my friend also playing at that table, he said it's unnecessairy risk I took, but I like my move, from the moment the 3better (new guy) just calls the 4bet of the fish.

If the new guy would 5bet, I would have given up on my AK for sure.

What do you think?
 
B

BullWink

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I think with the history of raises and callers, that it likely that there were a couple of pocket pairs out there. By shoving, it might have forced someone with a low pocket pair, or A-10 to fold, so it had this advantage. If I had the pocket 9's or 10's, I would have called your all-in (after seeing the recent history on this table). This would have meant that you would be in a coin flip (if 1 opponent) or worse (if more). So, you have to ask if you want to play coin flips?
Note: I think if you hadn't shoved, you would have been raised out of the hand after the flop by raise then re-raise by the 9-9 and 10-10.
 
vvanns

vvanns

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Hi Bull, thanks for your response.
You are right that I think the opponents have pocket pairs or weaker aces. I shoved with the idea that at least one player would call, I'm definitly not afraid of flips, I think it's part of the game. The important thing is next issue:
If only one player would have called instead of 3, I think my play is profitable against a pocket pair, seen that there's so much dead money in the pot.
Also your last note is important for why I shoved in the end. I was pretty sure nobody had AA or KK (maybe UTG as he was the initial raiser and 4bets, but again he was a loose tilting fish). Than indeed with my AK I need the full board against a pocket pair. An ace or king on the board with the full board is more likelly than only the flop.
 
vvanns

vvanns

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My Ukrainian friend that was with me at that table send me the calculations and apperently I'm only 29%. Thought I was at least 33%, so maybe not the best move of me. But I can't just fold them, right?
 

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TheGodson

TheGodson

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The first time around I'd probably fold, but I think calling is okay. The second time around shoving is absolutely correct given your read on the UTG player. The new guy is much more unlikely to have AA or KK given that he called. You're not worried about UTG guy and I'm pretty sure you're never worried about the Button. You could be flipping or ahead but rarely dominated.

These situations are good for you:
AK vs. JJ vs. 88: AK and JJ would be splitting the money from 88
AK vs. AQ vs. 77: AK and 77 would be splitting the money from AQ
AK vs. AT vs. A9: AK is scooping the money from everyone

These situations are bad for you
AK vs AK vs. 99: This situation sucks for you, but it is much more uncommon than the top two
AK vs AA vs JTs: This situation is pretty bad, but is rare as well

29% is plenty versus 4 people. With people folding you are also picking up a lot of dead money. The percentage is probably higher than 29% most likely.


If you call instead of shove then you fold everyone else out when a K or A falls on the flop. Anything else and they are all-in. Basically you get folds when you don't want them and can't get them when you want them.
 
vvanns

vvanns

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Thank you for a very nice analyse!
 
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