AQ in raised pot 3 handed facing bet on flop

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $123.70
UTG: $554.45
MP: $206.70
CO: $200
Hero (BTN): $215.80
SB: $121.25
Pre-Flop: Qs Ah dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $7, CO folds, Hero raises to $16, SB calls $15, BB folds, MP calls $9
Flop: ($50) 5d Qh Ts (3 Players)
SB checks, MP bets $38
Hero: ???

I didn’t raise very big on the flop because we’re deep stacked, AQ is a trouble hand, there are guys to act after me, and the raiser is 24/18/2 so I’m not dominating anything he’s raising with. The cold caller is 56/11/0.7 so I’m not that concerned about him. I'm 30/20/2 not doing anything out of line. I hit TPTK and he bets out into me which could be considered a donk bet, no? Should I just call or raise here? Do I want to play for stacks?

Thank you
Red Dawn

I'd push my stack in right here. There's the possibility that MP raised then smooth called with KK/AA, but it's more likely that he raised with a speculative hand like KQ suited or even JJ, and is now betting strong because he might have you on a hand that missed like AK. The only way I don't push here is if I've seen him slowplay a big pair preflop, or if I've seen him flop a monster and bet into the preflop aggressor.

I don't like your bet size pf, make this ~$21. If we we're HU I would be inclined to call as we have position. Problem is if we r/r we're gonna be playing for stacks. That board hits a lot of his opening range, it's a tricky spot for sure, I'm inclined to call, see if he slows down on the turn. If he pushes turn then I think can find a fold.

Push or Fold

I think calling is about the worst thing you can do here. There's already about $90 in the pot (PF $50 plus the $38 flop bet by MP), so if you call it's about $130 in the pot, and you both have $150 or so left. You're basically gonna be committed to playing your stack if you're going to call down here, because he's probably gonna bet the turn and/or river.

You've either gotta trust that you do have the best hand (and push now, in case he's on a drawing hand that may fold), or figure you're beat (pocket TT or 55 might both play the way MP did) and fold. It's a tough decision.

What range of hands is MP likely to have played this way? If I read the stats right, he's a reasonably tight player, so I would put his range at TT, JJ, AK and AQ, with 55 an outside possibility. Without more info I can't really guess which of these he may have.

Personally, I find his bet suspicious - he bet less than the pot-size, which usually means he wants to get a caller. I'm inclined to fold here, but if you had any reads about his tendency to bluff or stop-and-go, I wouldn't say pushing is bad.


Side note: why do people always re-raise with AQ or AK on the button when a raise has already come in? If someone already raised, I think of these hands as drawing hands, and am willing to flat call to see the flop. Any early or middle position raiser is likely to call any re-raise I make anyway, so why not keep my money for the flop, so I can fold (and save the money), or bet harder (in comparison to the smaller pot size)

red_dawn_28 said:

I hit TPTK and he bets out into me which could be considered a donk bet, no?

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Not if he has the best hand and his bet was designed to get a call. He's tight, he raised pre-flop. It could very well be TPTK is no good.

I'm also a little curious about the re-raise with AQ pre-flop. AQ is a trouble hand, you said so yourself - so why the re-raise?

zebranky said:

Side note: why do people always re-raise with AQ or AK on the button when a raise has already come in? If someone already raised, I think of these hands as drawing hands, and am willing to flat call to see the flop. Any early or middle position raiser is likely to call any re-raise I make anyway, so why not keep my money for the flop, so I can fold (and save the money), or bet harder (in comparison to the smaller pot size)

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Seriously calling a pf raise with AK in position is a huge leak in 6max imo.

looks like mp could have KK, 10-10, 5-5 , why else would he bet the amount he does on the flop after your re-raise..
also , just my opinion but why the re-raise from you pre-flop?