Another poll

This guy has *just* sat down; and goes all-in for ~20% of my stack. I've seen him employ this strategy before. Would anyone here call this?

** Game ID 13129665 starting - 2006-10-18 11:57:32
** On Request [Hold 'em] (2.00|4.00 No Limit - Cash Game) real money

- Poker_Fairy sitting in seat 1 with R472.50 [Dealer]
- pietermengel sitting in seat 2 with R66.63
- lubopool sitting in seat 3 with R110.00
- loopy sitting in seat 4 with R580.85
- nutflop11 sitting in seat 5 with R291.75
- FiT sitting in seat 6 with R107.62
- TRACY sitting in seat 7 with R115.60
- Karin sitting in seat 8 with R116.00

pietermengel posted the small blind - R2.00
lubopool posted the big blind - R4.00
Karin posted to play - R4.00

** Dealing card to loopy: Jack of Spades, Queen of Spades
loopy raised - R10.00
nutflop11 folded
FiT folded
TRACY called - R10.00
Karin called - R10.00
Poker_Fairy folded
pietermengel folded
lubopool went all-in - R110.00
loopy folded
TRACY folded
Karin folded
lubopool mucks:
lubopool wins R146.00 from the main pot

Pick hands that have some chance of winning a showdown unimproved, e.g. A or K-high hands. Would feel silly to find him flipping up K-2 offsuit.

You say that he has employed this before. With what hands? Obviously if he does it with 72os yeah go ahead. But if he does it with with AJ or such,hello?!

I'm not sure it was wise to raise w/ QJs UTG in the first place. It's a marginal hand to begin with. Try to get in cheap. If you're hand improves on the flop, fabulous, if not, be ready to fold. (You can probably guess what my choice for the poll was. )

I know sometimes these guys really get your goat, and you want to be the one to catch them, but you MUST be patient and wait for the right hand to do it with. I don't think this is the time.

Easy fold. You have QJs - that should be an automatic fold for 1/5 your stack. If villain is doing this often, then there's plenty of time to wait for a better hand to trap him with. Even with AK vs random undercards, you're only a 3:2 favourite; vs a pair it's basically 50/50 with you as the dog. I'd at least wait for like TT or better to stack him off.

I also agree with not raising that utg - I'll actually just dump this like %95 of the time. Maybe limp if your table's passive enough PF, but even so you'll be out of position the rest of the hand with a marginal hand.

I'm one of the 9 folds - nothing to add to the above 4 posts.

I voted fold, and limping UTG would have been better, but given the action so far, a RAISE could be a good move if you think you have a good read on this guy. There's 142 in the pot and it's 100 to go, so assuming the next two players fold and you think you're at least (100/242) = 41% to win, then folding is incorrect. The reason you raise is that you're worried about the two players who called your original raise, and might start thinking they have pot odds to call if you flat call the reraiser. If you re-raise they will almost certainly fold.

From his range of hands, if he has
AA or KK you're only about 18% to win - fold
QQ - 15% - fold
JJ - 36% - fold, just
Pocket pair TT or lower - 48% - CALL

AK - 40% - fold, just. Basically even money
AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ - 30-31% - fold
AT or lower Ace + hands like K2o - 45-48% - CALL

Random hands / bluff - 70% - CALL

So in summary the hands that are really bad for you are AA, KK, QQ. I'd say these are not that likely since you'd expect a more reasonable re-raise. The hands you're more afraid of are AQ and AJ, but you might expect a call rather than a re-raise with these.

I'd say more likely are a pocket pair TT or lower or bluff, both of which are calls, or AK, which is even money. So an isolation raise would not be bad. It's only 20% of your stack and would have a good effect on your table image, i.e. make you look like a crazy gambler.

Even for range of hands where you're only around 30% to win, that's only a 10% equity gap from what you require, so you're only really giving away (10% of 20%) = 2% of your stack, i.e. R10. Worth a gamble?

Bombjack said:

assuming the next two players fold

Click to expand...

That's one dangerous assumption.

Edit: But I really like that you did the math. Good job!

bubbasbestbabe said:

You say that he has employed this before. With what hands? Obviously if he does it with 72os yeah go ahead. But if he does it with with AJ or such,hello?!

Click to expand...

I have no idea, no-one's ever stood up to him before!
He generally comes in for about 25% of max buy-in and goes all-in for his first 3-4 hands. The table just folds every time. We're quite protective of our pizzly little currency here in the Republic After that he seems to settle down.

It's cool though; I took most of his money in the end;

I really wanted to see if anyone had any suggestions to deal with this type of player, and the consensus is: just wait it out.

Though Bombjack provides some food for thought (I haven't looked through the calcs yet though).

If he only does this for the first few hands but then settles down, quit going into pots unless you have AA or KK!!! If it's only an orbit, I don't see why you have to crack him. Ignore and take his money when he's not pushing all-in PF.

gord962 said:

If he only does this for the first few hands but then settles down, quit going into pots unless you have AA or KK!!! If it's only an orbit, I don't see why you have to crack him. Ignore and take his money when he's not pushing all-in PF.

Click to expand...

I suppose there are a couple of ways of looking at it... you could just fold every time unless you have AA or KK... alternatively because you know he does this every time for the first 4 hands and therefore has random cards, I'd call him with any Ace or better than average hand. It's free money! OK you're gambling, but the odds are definitely in your favour. Do a Sammy Farha. "You gotta gamble to win. You don't gamble, you don't win."

If I was in position and knew that nobody would call behind me I would call with any A or K matched with a high card or any pair but that is just a little too low for me. If you're feeling the urge to gamble and you dont think anybody will call behind you then go for it. It's a safe gamble but its not safe poker.