AK vs Open Shove

becomingpoker

becomingpoker

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No specific hand histories to go with this but twice tonight I ran into the following decision.

I was playing 50nl and I was getting deep enough to be happy with my play ($85 ish both times). Then a couple times in late position I open the pot w/ AK for 5x the bb only to have one of he blinds shove on me for approx one buyin. No real reads on either player. No poker tracker stats and they had only been around for a couple of orbits anyways. My image was probably pretty good w/ high aggression.

So now what?
a) Do I call? AK is one of the best starting hands right?
b) Do I fold? Again, AK is one of the best starting hands but it is still only Ace high pre-flop and pretty much a coin flip to ANY pair.

I know how I would've played it in the past but I think I may have been playing it poorly.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Foldy moldy. AK is a great hand because of its fold equity. We know we're flipping with everything but K's and A's with AK. So we use that knowledge to raise & re-raise and take pots down pre-flop.

You don't have that option here, you're only calling. And unless villain does this with AQ, you're either flipping or in big trouble. I'd usually fold in this spot, unless he keeps this up on a regular basis.
 
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shagnscoob

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But the whole point of raising and reraising PF is that if you get callers you're still okay because you have a good hand. I don't have any numbers but it seems like even against pairs you're a little better than a coinflip...

I would snap call myself, not that I know anything about NLHE, but it seems like you're a favorite over MOST hands. IE better than a coinflip. Even if it was a coinflip, then your at 0 EV. If there were only 2 other hands that had you beat, but SO many other hands that would shove (especially in that position) then you should be +EV to call in general....

Think about any hand you would shove besides AA, KK and AK. If you shoved and your opponenet called and showed you AK you'd think "****.... AK...."

I guess that's not a mathematically sound reason for calling, but still. How could you possibly have a disadvantage here? It only MIGHT be a pair, and you have the 3rd highest money making hand you could possibly have. Even if you KNEW it was a pair, say TT or 99, what would you do? Wouldn't you still call?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Even if you figure out he won't shove with AA or KK and restrict villain's range to QQ-88, AKo, AKs, you're only 45% to win and don't have the equity to make this call, especially taking rake into account.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.775% 34.79% 10.99% 371703300 117387828.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 54.225% 43.24% 10.99% 461998740 117387828.00 { QQ-88, AKs, AKo }

If villain's range includes AQ as well, then you're 53% and you should call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.321% 43.38% 08.94% 606163752 124882116.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.679% 38.74% 08.94% 541312080 124882116.00 { QQ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }


If villain can do this with AA and KK as well, it's a very clear fold

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.289% 32.70% 09.59% 403100940 118268424.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 57.711% 48.12% 09.59% 593221092 118268424.00 { 88+, AKs, AKo }
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Pop quiz:

$50 stacks. You have AK in the small blind and open to $4. Your opponent mistakenly shows his cards when he fumbles and he has QQ. He pushes. Your pot odds are 54:46.

This, incidentally, is exactly the odds you need to make the call. No more, no less.

Do you make the call?

Barring meta-game advantages and disadvantages, you probably shouldn't. The're no profit in making the call; you're exactly break-even between calling and folding, except that by folding you're reducing your variance and therefore your headaches and tilts. We gain when we have better odds than we need to make the call, not when we're "just about break-even."
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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First time, i'd fold for reasons stated above. You should have self confidence that you are better than your opponents, so you dont need to take 50/50 chances.

Second time? Depending on how soon it was after first fold, i'd be more inclined to call. You're hoping that opponents are extending their pushing range to AQ, even AJ and A10 having seen you raise/fold. You are going to find the table hard going from now on if you have raise/folded twice.
 
becomingpoker

becomingpoker

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I did fold this both times but didn't really feel good about it at the time. I'm glad others agree with this fold.
 
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