AK vs check raise all in on paired board; 50NL 6-max

Villain is fairly new to the table, and so far he's 10/0/0 after 10 hands.

full tilt poker Game #1851759272: Table Alina (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:47:59 ET - 2007/02/22
Seat 1: olliepower21 ($60)
Seat 2: millertime28 ($48.50)
Seat 3: ChuckTs ($102.10)
Seat 4: chwitte ($5.85)
Seat 5: ure a towel ($131.30)
Seat 6: Ninja Roy ($19.20)
chwitte posts the small blind of $0.25
ure a towel posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Kd As]
Ninja Roy raises to $1
olliepower21 folds
millertime28 folds
ChuckTs raises to $4
chwitte folds
ure a towel folds
Ninja Roy calls $3
*** FLOP *** [Th 7h Td]
Ninja Roy checks
ChuckTs bets $5
Ninja Roy raises to $15.20, and is all in
ChuckTs ....

A ten is possible, but his raise didn't really give me that impression. I was like %90 sure he had a small/medium pair. Can we call this bet based on his hand range?

JJ could also be in his range, but it's pretty unlikely with his preflop line I think.

This is an easy call, no? (2.84:1 pot odds)

Easy fold, don't you mean?

...maybe calling's a little worse than I'd originally thought.

OK it's $10.20 into a $28.95 pot so we're getting ~2.84:1 odds.

After punching in some hands into pokerstove, we get:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.007% 48.81% 07.19% 43976 6480.50 { JJ-22, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 43.993% 36.80% 07.19% 33153 6480.50 { AdKs }

Based on this range (which I personally think is pretty accurate), we're getting more than enough pot odds to call. I was actually being pretty generous with his hand range by including AT+ aswell as jacks.

You honestly don't even consider a call here, BJ?

p.s. I'm pretty terrible with pot odds so correct any mistakes if there are any.

You have ace high, you only beat a bluff right?

Trouble is you can't assume he has a random hand in his range, as a random hand doesn't check-raise all-in here. OK, he could have a couple of hearts which would make it a coinflip, but more than likely he has a pocket pair which he's defending. That makes you about 24% to win (if he doesn't have a heart), which doesn't give you the right odds to call. There's a good chance also that you're drawing dead to runner-runner.

ChuckTs said:

A ten is possible, but his raise didn't really give me that impression.

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Why not? Given the hand you've represented (mostly big-med pairs, main exception being AK which you happen to have), a T should and would play it precisely like this.

If he's willing to C-R all-in against the strength you've shown, I think it's unlikely he has anything but a pair or T. I think he has a T here much more often than a pure bluff. You're ahead but not in particularly terrific shape against a random bluff with your A-high and no hearts, whereas you're almost dead against a T. Looks like a pretty routine fold to me.

Looks like the consensus is that a call is terrible here
(I called, he showed 44 which held; but of course results = irrelevant)

mrsnake3695 said:

You have ace high, you only beat a bluff right?

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True, but my question is whether it was a good call based on pot odds or not ie are they good enough to call vs his range (which was pretty poorly estimated methinks).

combuboom said:

Why not? Given the hand you've represented (mostly big-med pairs, main exception being AK which you happen to have), a T should and would play it precisely like this.

Click to expand...

Sounds silly, but it was a gut feeling. I know you can't rely on these solely, but my feel was that he had a medium/small pair like 99 and under, and more often than not when I make a play based on gut feeling, my read is right. I think the range can be changed (we'll take out AJ+):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.358% 74.11% 00.25% 46954 159.00 { JJ-22, ATs, KTs, ATo, KTo }
Hand 1: 25.642% 25.39% 00.25% 16088 159.00 { AdKs }

Agreed on the range? I think there's also an outside chance of him making a play with a heart draw, but we'll ignore that for now since I don't really know how to include that into a range in pokerstove. KT + KTs are pretty out there, but I'll include them.

So we're only a 2.9:1 underdog here (based on that range, if accurate) and we're almost getting good enough pot odds to call based on that range. If we factor in the random AK making this play (believe me, I'd seen worse at this table) and a random heart draw, I think this is a closer call than you guys say. It's definitely a gamble, but I don't think this is an auto-fold...

I could of course be completely wrong...opinions/comments?

Pot odds are fine, to a point. If you have the worst of it then there is little sense in chasing hoping he is on a bluff. Plus, and i think this is an importqant point, villan has no more money, so even if you hit you have no more to get from him. Since you only beat a bluff I don't see a good reason to call here.

ChuckTs said:

my feel was that he had a medium/small pair like 99 and under, and more often than not when I make a play based on gut feeling, my read is right.

Click to expand...

Bombjack said:

more than likely he has a pocket pair which he's defending.

Click to expand...

Given this read, you agree you should have folded?

mrsnake3695 said:

Pot odds are fine, to a point. If you have the worst of it then there is little sense in chasing hoping he is on a bluff. Plus, and i think this is an importqant point, villan has no more money, so even if you hit you have no more to get from him. Since you only beat a bluff I don't see a good reason to call here.

Click to expand...

Fair enough; this may have been just a horrible call by me (I didn't have time to run these numbers during the hand), and maybe I was just running goot enough to think I could afford to call this.

Bombjack said:

Given this read, you agree you should have folded?

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Good point, but no:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.928% 64.56% 00.37% 26844 153.00 { 99-88, 66-22 }
Hand 1: 35.072% 34.70% 00.37% 14430 153.00 { AdKs }

We'd be a (64.9/35.1):1 = 1.85:1 underdog, and getting 2.84:1 on our money is plenty.

If his hand was face up would you call?

mrsnake3695 said:

If his hand was face up would you call?

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Based on pot odds, yes:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.556% 60.10% 00.45% 595 4.50 { 4c4d }
Hand 1: 39.444% 38.99% 00.45% 386 4.50 { AdKs }

Only a 1.54:1 underdog getting 2.84:1 on my money would be an eazy kapeezy call.

I gotta run guys, but I'm lookin forward to any more responses. Thanks for the input

It's because the board's paired - making Sevens and runner-runner pairs outs for you if he has a smaller pair than Sevens. Hmm, good call, although it was a case of pricing yourself in to some extent...