This is a discussion on AK UTG; 3-bet by SB within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; This is villains 2nd orbit so not much help as far as reads. I had position on him and it's folded behind me so decided
A draw to the nut flush and 2 overcards which you're not sure if they're alive. You need $23.30 to call in $40.80 pot. What's your play? Call or fold?
11th October 2007, 9:50 PM
He really looks like he wants you to go away...
I probably call this expecting to see 99-QQ (possibly 77 too) a lot of the time, an overly-played AK/AQ some of the time, and occasionally a set, something like A8 or A6 and AA/KK.
Even against QQ we're a favourite in the hand unless he holds a diamond, in which case we're only %1 under a coinflip.
12th October 2007, 3:17 PM
re: Poker & AK UTG; 3-bet by SB
You have to call. reasoning below
Against AA you are 36%. Against KK ( including diamond you are 42%. Against everyother Overpair you are coin flip. Against trips you are 27% - but no-one is going all in after hitting trips. Against AK,AQ you are 32% win 68% tie.
Your potential call represents 38% of the pot and I reckon your overall odds are higher that that.
12th October 2007, 8:10 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
I'd say you would probably have to call here...
Like Chuck said, I would be surprised if he had overpairs hence it being 9's, 10's or jack's and just wants you out of the pot because ALL diamonds hit the flop...
I have a gut feeling that he wants you out of the pot thinking that you have a good flush draw, but knock his ass out with the flush and make him go home and cry to his mama...