Originally Posted by daxter70
and overplay the biggest donkey hand out there....typical
How would you play this? I really don't like a call here, because if you call and hit an A or K you've got to assume you're getting your stack in with that kind of action preflop, and at that point if you were beat preflop you are still beat or they know they're beat and fold. There are 4 possibilities:
1. AA - we're ****ed no matter what. Obviously if we knew he had this we'd fold, but we're not folding here so a call or push we're practically drawing dead. In this particular situation a call would be better because we assume we get stacked if an A or K hits and we get away from it if we flop nothing.
2. KK - we're drawing to an A, if we flat call and hit it, villain's not putting his stack in. If we flat call and miss, he wins the pot. If we hit our K, he stacks us. If we push, we win his stack with an A, not happening if we flat call. A K and he still stacks us obviously, anything else and he wins just our preflop betting.
3. lower pocket pair - if an A or K hits and villain doesn't set, he's not putting his stack in, so we can extract nothing from this if we hit. If we push preflop first off we get fold equity, not many 99- are calling and TT and JJ and once in a while QQ may fold. And even when they do call, we're still just barely under 50% to win. So including fold equity, we win when they have a smaller pocket pair. If we don't hit our A or K (meaning it's highly likely they have an over pair, possibly with one over, a Q or something), we're not winning the hand and if we hit they're not paying us off a lot. So we lose on this since statistically we miss more than we hit.
4. Total bluff - not likely, but shove forces the bluff to fold while postflop they could easily fire another bullet if we flat call or else actually hit something like 2 pair. Obviously the shove is better here
If we think he has AA or KK the majority of the time here, it's a clear fold, but call > shove. If we don't (which is probably the case, but against an extremely tight player maybe he does have AA or KK the majority of the time), than shove > call. The fold equity we get from the coin flips that may fold preflop outweigh the times when they just might have AA or KK, and the total bluffs simply fold to our shove.