AK in position. Missed flop

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Raise pre-flop, float villain's flop bet, then fire two bullets. Villain is 32/10/3/38.

pokerstars Game #17572701761: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/05/20 - 17:53:46 (ET)
Table 'Alnath III' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: edmund9242 ($13.60 in chips)
Seat 3: glumidlo ($10.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Qcthunder31 ($5.30 in chips)
Seat 5: BluegrassTX ($6.10 in chips)
Seat 6: VinceMarquis ($6.40 in chips)
Seat 7: sick game ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 8: BelgoSuisse ($11.75 in chips)
Seat 9: vishiefishie ($11.30 in chips)
Qcthunder31: posts small blind $0.05
BluegrassTX: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [Ks Ad]
VinceMarquis: calls $0.10
sick game: folds
BelgoSuisse: raises $0.20 to $0.30
vishiefishie: folds
edmund9242: folds
glumidlo: folds
Qcthunder31: folds
BluegrassTX: calls $0.20
VinceMarquis: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [4c Qh 9s]
BluegrassTX: checks
VinceMarquis: bets $0.30
BelgoSuisse: calls $0.30
BluegrassTX: folds
*** TURN *** [4c Qh 9s] [2d]
VinceMarquis: checks
BelgoSuisse: bets $1
VinceMarquis: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [4c Qh 9s 2d] [5s]
VinceMarquis: checks
BelgoSuisse: bets $3.40
VinceMarquis: calls $3.40
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Raise more preflop (I'd say make it .50). As played once he calls the turn you've got to put him on a Q and give up on this pot. The river bet is bad because the 5s obviously didn't help you and if he thought he was good on the turn, nothing has changed. Just check behind here and give up the pot.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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oops. Actually I usually do 3bb+1 per limper and this one was a missclick. Typically I would have raised 4bb.
 
WVHillbilly

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I do 4x normally, but if your normal raise is 3x that's fine as long as you raise more with the limper(s).
 
B

Bentheman87

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Fold on the flop. You were probably thinking "a min bet, I still have 6 outs I gotta call". You were getting 4:1 but with 6 outs you were about 8:1 against hitting on the turn so a fold is the right play. Also, an ace or king might not be good, so you should adjust it downwards to about 5 outs. Also you have no reason to think you're implied odds are great.

Unless your plan was to "call with nothing to take the pot later", then I guess a call is ok, and so is a raise. I often will raise people who min bet into a large pot, and it usually works.
 
Jillychemung

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Normally I'd be repping AQ on a flop like this. That flop bet by the opponent a lot of times is a blocking bet for draws to try and get a free turn. I would have reraised the pot here, fold to a 4-bet and 3-barreled the turn if he had called.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Fold on the flop. You were probably thinking "a min bet, I still have 6 outs I gotta call". You were getting 4:1 but with 6 outs you were about 8:1 against hitting on the turn so a fold is the right play. Also, an ace or king might not be good, so you should adjust it downwards to about 5 outs. Also you have no reason to think you're implied odds are great.

Unless your plan was to "call with nothing to take the pot later", then I guess a call is ok, and so is a raise. I often will raise people who min bet into a large pot, and it usually works.

i'm calling the flop bet not because I have the odds for it, but because I think I can take the hand on the turn if he doesn't double barrel.

Turn out villain has 97 so he calls half his stack with second pair. Is my line too easily read as a bluff or did I just happen to stumble on a calling station here?
 
c9h13no3

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Wtf are we repping by betting the turn & river? Pocket 2's? Raise flop if you're gonna move at this pot, or give up on the turn when a scare card doesn't hit.

Oh, and don't bluff calling stations. Floating is a play that requires *reads*. Otherwise, don't even bother. Without knowing that your opponent has the ability to:

A) C-bet
B) Fold top pair weak kicker or second pair hands

We should not be floating, because otherwise our opponent usually won't be folding on later streets. Against this sort of player, raise more preflop than you usually would to isolate his fish-ass. Then make a hand top pair, good kicker or better. Then bet all three streets for value unless like a flush hits.

So to answer your question: Both. We're not repping believable on the turn & riv, but the main problem is we're not playing our opponent.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Thoughts...

- The flop is a good dry flop for villain to bet at and try and take the pot there and then. It's more likely than not that we are either sitting on unimproved high cards or have a pair <QQ and thus are somewhat fearful of the Q.

- c9h, why would we raise the flop with a strong hand here? We have a drawless flop and a villain who wants to wrestle the initiative from us - with KQ+/QQ+/99/44 we should certainly be calling the flop bet the majority of the time as not a lot of cards that can come on the turn will scare us, and we may get villain to either mistakenly value bet or bluff again at the turn. Our line is perfectly believable as a strong hand (it is however the standard line a bluff will take, but I wouldn't give the average villain at $10NL credit for seeing this much).

- As played is fine but I definitely check the river as the only hands that make sense for villain here afte his turn call are some sort of made hands (which invariably aren't folding) or JT (which we beat at showdown anyway).
 
BelgoSuisse

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Well, my thinking is that villain's line when he checks the river says low Q or second pair, and my river bet says at least TPTK, so he would have to fold.

Anyway, next time we meet I'll know I just need to value bet him and forget about any bluff.
 
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feitr

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I don't think that floating is inconsistent with a strong hand. If villain had bet more into the flop, then flat calling with AQ hoping to reraise a turn shot makes sense. However, TPTK probably isn't going to flat call such a small bet. Reraising on the flop with nothing can be dangerous, however, because alot of players at these stakes will just take that as a sign of "defending your cbet" and be more resolute as a calling station.

Even so that is beside the point...the villain likely doesn't have a clue nor care what you have. There are some players you simply cannot bluff. So don't try, wait until you do have TPTK then value bet him and smile when he flips over 2nd pair. In fact i don't think you should try to bluff many players at NL10 unless you have some good reads.
 
TWiTCHaH

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Very common situation for me. I always raise pre-flop with A/K and it rarely ever hits. If it does hit people usually will fold if they see an A or K on the flop and I won't make much money.

In the .05/.10 tables you get alot of callers on even a 4-5xBB raise. If I don't hit anything on the flop I usually lose more money from a contination bet (hell, alot of the time I even get re-raised). I've honestly had more luck not raising pre-flop with A/K, I know that's not the best play but in these .5/.10 tables (especially at bodog) you get ALOT of calls with a pre-flop raise.

Of course the one time I don't raise with it the flop will comes down A/A/K and I'll want to raise again with it next hand. I guess I just have terrible timing.
 
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feitr

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Limping with AK is asking to get stacked. If you are getting reraised after your c-bet then just don't c-bet. It sounds like you are getting like 3 callers then trying to cbet, and if that is the case you are best off limiting your cbets to when you are HU. If you know you are goign to get alot of callers when you raise 4-5BB then raise 7-10 BB and try to get HU.
 
c9h13no3

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- c9h, why would we raise the flop with a strong hand here? We have a drawless flop and a villain who wants to wrestle the initiative from us - with KQ+/QQ+/99/44 we should certainly be calling the flop bet the majority of the time as not a lot of cards that can come on the turn will scare us, and we may get villain to either mistakenly value bet or bluff again at the turn.
Villain has absolutely no idea that a big hand wouldn't be raising the flop. They just go "Oh gee, he raised, he must have AQ or better. We're dealing with idiots here. And when you called his small bet on the flop, he goes "sweet, he must not have much", then when you bet the 2 he goes "man, he has a 2 in his hand?". We're not dealing with a complicated thought process, so when you bluff idiots, just pick something on the board that you're likely to have that is better than him and rep it.

Plus, I see tons of players raise TPNK at ultra-micro stakes. Raising the flop would be a believable way to rep a Q at this limit.
 
BelgoSuisse

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So if I was playing NL50 instead of NL10, this would have been a good river bet???
 
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feitr

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But your not ;) A good bluff is one that works. A bluff that works on a pro may not work on a donkey calling station. I still think it is hard to represent the Q after calling such a small bet into the flop. There is a difference between floating after a 2/3 pot lead out and floating when somebody led out with a 1/3 pot bet. I agree with c9 here...trying to overthink in NL10 is not a good idea. Just play solid, don't try to get too creative, and players will pay you off.
 
tenbob

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So if I was playing NL50 instead of NL10, this would have been a good river bet???

Against a 32/10/3, in a word no. You will come across these type of players on most limits. They just love making that "hero" call with a weak made hand, even though you are repping huge. I like the turn line, but once i give it a shot on the turn, i just give up on the river and move on.

On most limits against a 32/10, just play for value, big bluff dont work on a first level thinker, because they dont look at what hand that you are representing, just what their own cards are, and thats the range you need to beat.
 
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