re: Poker & AK, was I right to chase my draw?
It's possible that he called my flop bet with AQ, but there is no way he would shove the turn with it. $100 more isn't enough to make me fold anything that can beat AQ and he knows it. We've been playing at this table for four hours. He knows that I wouldn't try to bluff a big field of loose players and I can't see him shoving with anything less than AK. And if he had AK he would be worried that I had AJ, JJ and would have been happy to just call the turn.
If he had Aces he would definitely reraise preflop to knock people out. If he has Jacks... I think he would reraise me preflop. It's his style of play to define my hand and see if I have a higher pocket pair. For me to even play the small blind, let alone raise it is very rare and I think at this point he has to find out if I have a pair or not. To play the jacks just hoping for a set is too passive for this player I think. The other hand he could have is A4 suited. Again I still have to catch a king or a spade, but I'd rather him have A4 because then it's almost impossible for the other guy to have 44.
Now if I had AA or JJ I would make the same raise and the same flop play, but Seat 3 doesn't know that since the situation hasn't come up yet. I'm sure he considered those hands and was concerned about them. With AJ/A4/44 he may feel that he just has to pay me off, but with something marginal like AQ or even AK he would probably decide that there are too many ways for him to be beat and fold.
I really think the $50 bet was dumb. All I'm doing is giving my opponents better odds and committing Seat 5 to play to the end when something else may have gotten him to fold. But by shoving I bet $150 to win $250. If I only get one caller I will only be getting 2.5-1 odds. Even if they both call I am only getting 3.5 but I think I only have a 25% of winning vs Seat 3 and that number is going down with the addition of Seat 5. Now shoving might be ok if I thought there was some chance they would both fold or if I could get Seat 3 for sure to fold (since think Seat 5 could have either a completely donkey hand or something really strong). But even if I go all in and Seat 5 calls, I don't know if Seat 3 is capable of folding his AJ/A4/44.