AK hand? What from here ?

tenbob

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pokerstars GAME #3852680540: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.05/$0.10) - 2006/06/03 - 20:35:07 (ET)
Table 'Brandia' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: tenbob ($9.15 in chips)
Seat 3: mejillon ($4.45 in chips)
Seat 4: ripptyde ($13.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Cash Duke ($7.15 in chips)
Seat 6: elaoric ($6.40 in chips)
Cash Duke: posts small blind $0.05
elaoric: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Ks Ad]
tenbob: raises $0.30 to $0.40
mejillon: calls $0.40
ripptyde: calls $0.40
Cash Duke: calls $0.35
elaoric: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [5s 9h Ah]
Cash Duke: checks
elaoric: bets $0.20
tenbob: raises $0.90 to $1.10
mejillon: folds
ripptyde: raises $1.90 to $3
Cash Duke: folds
elaoric: calls $2.80
tenbob ???????????????

Now what ? Ive hit the Ace, but why are the un-afraid of it ? Will i push? Why am i playing AK in the first place, can i fold when i hit the flop ?
 
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shwingzilla

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I think this is a clear case where it depends on what they were doing earlier. If they're very conservative, fold. If they've shown themselves to be aggressive players re-raise a dollar or two to see where you are. If they're total maniacs or subject to random play re-raise all in. But even this is overly simplistic. It really depends on how they were playing earlier.

My guess is that since it's 5-10 cent blinds, and practically everyone saw the flop after being raised, that you're just playing donks betting their top pair, low kicker, or flush draws. There's only so much analysis that can be put into a 5-10 cent game.
 
twizzybop

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There is a flush draw in someones hand, then possibly a set, along with some donk hold Ax.. which that X could be a 5. Rippity tide I would bet has the ax, and eloric is looking for the flush draw. You raised UTG with the calls so I would also think set in rippity tide's hand.

Eloric just called and guessing he is going to become a calling station from here on in while looking for the flush. You would want to raise to see if rippity is on a set or ax.
 
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chicubs1616

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Most of the time in these situations you are facing someone with a flush draw, and another with a hand like AQ, AJ, AT, A9, 99, or 55.

can i fold when i hit the flop ?

This is a dilema that seperates decent players from good players. Good players know when they are beat even when they hit a flop, and can fold.

In the possible scenario I described above, heres how you would fare against a range of hands from the two different players.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.0024 % 32.52% 00.48% { AdKs }
Hand 2: 26.5455 % 26.07% 00.48% { 99, 55, AQs-A9s, AQo-A9o }
Hand 3: 40.4521 % 40.45% 00.00% { KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, 8h7h, 7h6h }

So, against the theoretical hands of the two players above, you are ~33% to win the hand.

Just calling in this instance is terrible in my opinion. You are most likely going to have to face more betting on the turn.

Folding or going all-in here are the options. If you go all-in I would expect both players to call (since one already involved half of his stack and the other 3-betted the flop).

ripptyde's re-raise on the flop tells me he most likely has a set or two pair. If you have been playing with him for a while and he has 3-betted with top pair 2nd kicker before, I would not be as concerned. However, most players have a hand that beats your AK here.

I would fold here given the betting, I don't know what elaoric might have, but my best guess would be a flush draw, and he isn't going anywhere, so you are mainly concerned about ripptyde.

ripptyde's most likely holdings preflop to just call and then 3-bet on the flop would be A9, 99, 55, and maybe AQ,AJ,AT.

All in all, I fold here.
 
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chicubs1616

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You would want to raise to see if rippity is on a set or ax.

Well if you 4-bet hm here, eloatic is calling almost for sure if he has up to this point (he could be slowplaying even). Also, you are going to get re-raised all-in if you are beat, thus commiting you to the hand, and ripptyde will most likely fold if you have Ax.

If you were to raise you would have to push,, raising to another $2-$3 isn't going to make anyone go away, and you are putting in almost your whole stack.

I don't like 4-betting here into two opponents with just top pair top kicker. I think you see a set or two pair here (along with a flush draw) more often than just a hand like AQ, AJ.
 
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shwingzilla

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chicubs1616 said:
Most of the time in these situations you are facing someone with a flush draw, and another with a hand like AQ, AJ, AT, A9, 99, or 55.



This is a dilema that seperates decent players from good players. Good players know when they are beat even when they hit a flop, and can fold.

In the possible scenario I described above, heres how you would fare against a range of hands from the two different players.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.0024 % 32.52% 00.48% { AdKs }
Hand 2: 26.5455 % 26.07% 00.48% { 99, 55, AQs-A9s, AQo-A9o }
Hand 3: 40.4521 % 40.45% 00.00% { KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, 8h7h, 7h6h }

So, against the theoretical hands of the two players above, you are ~33% to win the hand.

Just calling in this instance is terrible in my opinion. You are most likely going to have to face more betting on the turn.

Folding or going all-in here are the options. If you go all-in I would expect both players to call (since one already involved half of his stack and the other 3-betted the flop).

ripptyde's re-raise on the flop tells me he most likely has a set or two pair. If you have been playing with him for a while and he has 3-betted with top pair 2nd kicker before, I would not be as concerned. However, most players have a hand that beats your AK here.

I would fold here given the betting, I don't know what elaoric might have, but my best guess would be a flush draw, and he isn't going anywhere, so you are mainly concerned about ripptyde.

ripptyde's most likely holdings preflop to just call and then 3-bet on the flop would be A9, 99, 55, and maybe AQ,AJ,AT.

All in all, I fold here.

You're giving a LOT of credit to a 5-10 cent ring game. To assume that your opponent is playing with A-9 or better, or 7-6 suited or better does not fit with my experience at all. Change those stats to include any two hearts, include 67offsuit, any pocket pair 55 or better, and A-rag - then you'll have a more accurate description of these sorts of players.

Finally to just call (ripptyde) with AQ, AJ, or KQ when you already have two players in on the action and maybe more players to come is not the smartest idea. A-x and KQ don't hold up well against multiple players.

So either if you assume your opponents are good (unlikely) or if you assume that they are bad (likely) A-Q, A-J, and KQ are unlikely hands.
 
t1riel

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This is no-limit right?;)

My guess is one player is on a flush draw and the other player has an Ace with a weaker kicker. Small pocket pair is likely but I would call here and see the turn. You have top pair with the highest kicker. I think you are in good position to call after the re-raise.
 
tenbob

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I was at this table for about 20(ish) hands, and didnt go past the flop stage of any hand. This table was pure crazy, most hands were going to all-in stage. The average pot was $15 (ish) which was why i joined the table in the first place. Lots of players coming on and either busting out straight away or doubling up and leaving. The hands being shown down varied vastly between un-hit medium pairs, mid-pairs and the occasional monster.
 
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The amount of callers preflop has to be slightly worrying. I would imagine by the size of the reraise and then the call there is a pretty good chance a guy holding a smaller kicker has hit and you are drawing to 3 outs, or the board pairing

I cant imagine either guy holding a gutshot draw so that leaves you up against a possible hit set or a flush draw.

This would be a difficult to lay down, especially with top kicker. I think calling is pointless, considering A) your stack and B) the fact you have to face bets on the turn and river.

I would either go over the top and raise both players all in or fold
 
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shwingzilla

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tenbob said:
I was at this table for about 20(ish) hands, and didnt go past the flop stage of any hand. This table was pure crazy, most hands were going to all-in stage. The average pot was $15 (ish) which was why i joined the table in the first place. Lots of players coming on and either busting out straight away or doubling up and leaving. The hands being shown down varied vastly between un-hit medium pairs, mid-pairs and the occasional monster.

Then it should have been an automatic call.
 
ChuckTs

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I'm curious
what'd you end up doing
sounds like that table was pretty loose, even by just that hand's preflop play
if so you shoulda been in pretty good shape
so what'd you do?
 
tenbob

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Sorry guys i forgot about this. I have the hand history on PT at home, ill post the results when i get hoome from work.
 
tenbob

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OK i decided not to fold, calling was a bad move, and a push would likely get me heads up. So i pushed, horrible horrible, i was miles behind, against a set, bottom set though so i had a chance.

AK~ 1.3%:p
55~ 84.6%
88~ 14.1%

Its hard to even imagine that your this far behind holding top pair top kicker, (the reason i posted this thread)


*** FLOP *** [5s 9h Ah]
Cash Duke: checks
elaoric: bets $0.20
tenbob: raises $0.90 to $1.10
mejillon: folds
ripptyde: raises $1.90 to $3
Cash Duke: folds
elaoric: calls $2.80
tenbob: raises $5.75 to $8.75 and is all-in
ripptyde: raises $3.95 to $12.70 and is all-in
elaoric: calls $3 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [5s 9h Ah] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [5s 9h Ah Ac] [9s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tenbob: shows [Ks Ad] (a full house, Aces full of Nines)
ripptyde: mucks hand
tenbob collected $5.20 from side pot
elaoric: mucks hand
tenbob collected $19.05 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $25.50 Main pot $19.05. Side pot $5.20. | Rake $1.25
Board [5s 9h Ah Ac 9s]
Seat 2: tenbob showed [Ks Ad] and won ($24.25) with a full house, Aces full of Nines
Seat 3: mejillon folded on the Flop
Seat 4: ripptyde (button) mucked [5d 5c]
Seat 5: Cash Duke (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: elaoric (big blind) mucked [8d 8h]
 
Count DeMoney

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Ok I understand the 5d 5c sticking around after flopping trips but not the 8h8d with 2 overcards and one of them an ace. At those limits you just can't get people out sometimes. Lucky for you one other ace came.
 
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chicubs1616

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Your luckbox was functioning at full speed this hand.

I hope the results don't influence the way you interpreted this hand or will play similar hands in the future...
 
Four Dogs

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tenbob, I wish I could have replied before you posted your answer, because now anything I say will sound like monday morning quarterbacking. The lesson I continue to learn but never seem to digest is that aces are just a pair. I played the exact same hand against colin at last weeks Big One. AKs with a KJJ on the flop. I raised, colin reraised big and I refused to listen to what he was telling me. I'd like to say that I would have layed it down. Because every bone in my body tells me your beat. But usually, mostly, that big bet means something. With that many callers, someone was bound to hit paydirt. I wish I could say that I would have tossed my monster starting hand with top pair. But... for the remaining $7.50? Optimism wins the day. Optimism is bad poker strategy.
 
tenbob

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tenbob said:
AK~ 1.3%:p
55~ 84.6%
88~ 14.1%

Its hard to even imagine that your this far behind holding top pair top kicker, (the reason i posted this thread)

I totally understand your response to this thread FourDogs, but as you can see from above top pair top kicker is by no means a hand to get involved with when players are betting big. I posted the results because during the hand itself i actually didnt realise actually how far behind TPTK can be.

Why did I pick this particular hand for anyalsis ? Well it stook out in my mind to be honest, the results by no means reflect the way i will play hands like this in the future. Now as i mentioned above, the table was verging on maniacial and i was actively looking to get involved with these guys in a big hand. Bad choice obvoiusly, the 88 had a better chance than me of taking down the flopped set.

Its the realisation that while sometimes you have an exellent hand (or think so) you have to make the big laydowns. Would I have layed this hand down here ? At the time it was in my opnion a marginal decision push or fold, my decision was way off the mark. As I think Bill said in a post a few months back.

"I acknowledge your over-pair, and I can beat it ! " Similar situation as above, this time i simply got lucky.
 
ChuckTs

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chicubs1616 said:
Your luckbox was functioning at full speed this hand.

I hope the results don't influence the way you interpreted this hand or will play similar hands in the future...

i still think it was the proper play...for that loose of a table i mean
i'd still think i was ahead or at least in pretty good shape
oh well, it turned out good in the end...just barely :)
 
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colin_147

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Four Dogs said:
tenbob, I wish I could have replied before you posted your answer, because now anything I say will sound like monday morning quarterbacking. The lesson I continue to learn but never seem to digest is that aces are just a pair. I played the exact same hand against colin at last weeks Big One. AKs with a KJJ on the flop. I raised, colin reraised big and I refused to listen to what he was telling me. I'd like to say that I would have layed it down. Because every bone in my body tells me your beat. But usually, mostly, that big bet means something. With that many callers, someone was bound to hit paydirt. I wish I could say that I would have tossed my monster starting hand with top pair. But... for the remaining $7.50? Optimism wins the day. Optimism is bad poker strategy.

Just wanted to add you was very unlucky in that hand FD. I suppose the big re-raise by me, you had to put me on AA, KK or QQ. With a KJJ flop, I gather you either have AK or KK, I know you wouldnt have called that bet with AJ. With that flop though, it was an extremely difficult hand to lay down

TB - To be honest m8 I dont think you played the hand particularly badly. The guys calling preflop were in a coinflip and the flopp was pretty massive, especially for the hit set. But, as I said in my earlier post, I would either have raised both players all in, as you did, or fold. So you outdrew him with kicker, kicker, I still dont think its was a really bad call. I would prob have put him perhaps on 2 pair, but this will have given me outs, although prob not at the right odds!
 
titans4ever

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LOL, I had the same type of situation, new to the table and had AK. I hit my K and bet, and got reraised and called before it got back to me. I folded for all the reasons stated here in this thread. I put someone on a set or even AA with no reraise before the flop.

I was shocked, the reraiser had 99 and the caller had QQ. I layed down the winning hand. Goes to show things are not always as they appear.
 
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