AK flopped nut flush draw v big rrse

Stefanicov

Stefanicov

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pokerstars Game #9120743122: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/03/27 - 19:14:00 (ET)
Table 'Leonid III' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: tenbob ($61.35 in chips)
Seat 2: chipper4114 ($8.50 in chips)
Seat 3: pezandfluz ($54.80 in chips)
Seat 4: FrankBou ($119.90 in chips)
Seat 5: RalfFromSteg ($60.60 in chips)
Seat 6: PokerMirf ($52.35 in chips)
Seat 7: s33w33d ($53.25 in chips)
Seat 8: dakota-xx ($35.35 in chips)
Seat 9: Stefanicov ($50 in chips)
chipper4114: posts small blind $0.25
pezandfluz: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Stefanicov [Ah Ks]
FrankBou: folds
RalfFromSteg: raises $1 to $1.50
PokerMirf: folds
s33w33d: folds
dakota-xx: folds
Stefanicov: raises $3.50 to $5
tenbob: folds
chipper4114: folds
pezandfluz: folds
RalfFromSteg: calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [Th 2h 5h]
RalfFromSteg: checks
Stefanicov: bets $5.50
RalfFromSteg: raises $9 to $14.50
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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big arse = donkey?

Seriously though, what are your reads on villain?

If we're sticking with this hand, we're pushing. He's not going to pay you off if you just call and see a 4-flush on the turn.
 
Stefanicov

Stefanicov

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raise = rrse

i have no reads at all as am drunk

will post nxt bit in while
 
dj11

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No reads? So the guy could be Doyle with his hand. I'm putting him on 2 hearts, king high.

Shove or fold?

Your drunk, and have an excuse, shove!
 
rob5775

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No reads? So the guy could be Doyle with his hand. I'm putting him on 2 hearts, king high.

Shove or fold?

Your drunk, and have an excuse, shove!


Thats what I was thinking... If I'm drunk then its a no brainer, I'm pushing. What are the possible outcomes of a push? He calls, you lose. He calls, you win a big pot. Or he folds. You have nine outs with the flush draw, plus possibly the aces if he didn't hit the flush and has a pocket pair or TP king or lower kicker.

And if I've been imbibing, then I'm with out a doubt pushing. :p
 
Stefanicov

Stefanicov

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PokerStars Game #9120743122: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/03/27 - 19:14:00 (ET)
Table 'Leonid III' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: tenbob ($61.35 in chips)
Seat 2: chipper4114 ($8.50 in chips)
Seat 3: pezandfluz ($54.80 in chips)
Seat 4: FrankBou ($119.90 in chips)
Seat 5: RalfFromSteg ($60.60 in chips)
Seat 6: PokerMirf ($52.35 in chips)
Seat 7: s33w33d ($53.25 in chips)
Seat 8: dakota-xx ($35.35 in chips)
Seat 9: Stefanicov ($50 in chips)
chipper4114: posts small blind $0.25
pezandfluz: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Stefanicov [Ah Ks]
FrankBou: folds
RalfFromSteg: raises $1 to $1.50
PokerMirf: folds
s33w33d: folds
dakota-xx: folds
Stefanicov: raises $3.50 to $5
tenbob: folds
chipper4114: folds
pezandfluz: folds
RalfFromSteg: calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [Th 2h 5h]
RalfFromSteg: checks
Stefanicov: bets $5.50
RalfFromSteg: raises $9 to $14.50
Stefanicov: calls $9
*** TURN *** [Th 2h 5h] [Ac]
RalfFromSteg: checks
Stefanicov: ????
 
rob5775

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I'd have to think the ace is a good card for you. The only hands you'd be behind is a set or a made flush on the flop. You still have one card to come to make the nut flush. After your call on the flop, why did the villian check the turn. Maybe check raise? I think your ahead here, and the villian was trying to push you out of the hand with a the raise on the flop.

With TPTK and the nut flush draw, we want to make more money if we can. I would put out a small value bet or "feeler"... a push (pot sized bet would be your stack) might not get called if he did have pocket pair or he hit the ten. The ace might scare him off (maybe). A smaller bet might be called or he might come over the top and push us all in. I think you have to take the chance that he doesnt already have the flush.

Robbie
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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With a 35% chance of hitting the nut flush by the river and the Ace and the King both possibly good here (he could easily have QxQh) you may have 15 outs. I push the flop after that re-raise.
 
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MPW73088

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I wouldn't play when I'm drunk...
 
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james222

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since you only called flop and he checks turn im checking turn also. The reason is if he was bluffing and you bet turn hes most likely folding if he has less than an A. also possible he has K high flush draw. so on river i would give him another shot to bluff and if heart comes you both might make flushes. i check turn call river. If he checks river also i bet half pot
 
Stefanicov

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Stefanicov: bets $16.50
RalfFromSteg: calls $16.50
*** RIVER *** [Th 2h 5h Ac] [Kh]
RalfFromSteg: bets $24.60 and is all-in
Stefanicov: calls $14 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RalfFromSteg: shows [Kc Kd] (three of a kind, Kings)
Stefanicov: shows [Ah Ks] (a flush, Ace high)
Stefanicov collected $97.75 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $100.75 | Rake $3
Board [Th 2h 5h Ac Kh]
Seat 1: tenbob (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: chipper4114 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: pezandfluz (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: FrankBou folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: RalfFromSteg showed [Kc Kd] and lost with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 6: PokerMirf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: s33w33d folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: dakota-xx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Stefanicov showed [Ah Ks] and won ($97.75) with a flush, Ace high
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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We need to push/fold this flop (as was mentioned). We're a favourite over any overpair aside from AA/KK which are pretty unlikely. We still have redraws against the hands that have us beat (all unlikely; set, weird 2 pair, AA/KK).

Does somebody want to pin him on a range? I actually can't see much that your 'average' player would do this with except:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.227% 45.18% 00.05% 13419 13.50 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 54.773% 54.73% 00.05% 16254 13.50 { 99+, 55 }

in which case we're behind his range, though I think vs a stronger player we can maybe make him fold something like 88/99 or JJ which gives us some extra equity.
 
Stefanicov

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cool thnks for advice tho tenbob told me exactly the opposite tht i let the pot get too big:D
 
P

Prolaznik

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You published result too soon :(

However, I decided to amuse myself by some counting anyway. And I've found interesting results... :)

If you push all in on flop and be called by a made flush - your expected loss is only ~1.865!! What does it mean?
It means that 8% is enough...
If he'll fold in only 8% cases - pushing all in brings +EV. He'll naturally fold much, much more often - so pushing is a must.

(I could, of course, make a calculation mistake, though I probably didn't)

Betting on turn means that you've decided to call his possible all in move. If you had good reasons for such a decision, it was an OK move. Otherwise, it's a nasty mistake...

However, this story has a happy end - enjoy your $100 pot... Cheers :)
 
Bombjack

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I quite like just calling this flop. Obviously you can't fold, but you'll usually be coinflipping at best with anything that calls you or more usually behind. Be glad that his raise is small, less than half pot, and gives you odds to call.
 
D

Dingodaddy23

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pushing the flop is clearly the best play here. but the way you got there, i like checking behind on the turn as you obviously aren't concerned with draws "catching up", and he may bet river with whatever he has even if the flush bricks out and you can call him and take the money. sucks that he hit a 1 outter on you
 
tenbob

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This is one of my main issues on NL, controlling the size of the pot with drawing hands, here I felt the pot had spiralled out of controll.

Looking at the P/F action, the villian who you cant have had much of a read on tbh, raised and CALLED the 3-bet impling a good but not great pair.

You get MIN check-raised on the flop, telling me there is only a very small percentage of hands that your actually beating, and it was looking very much to me like you were up against a set. I check the turn here, with the intention of calling a small river bet or obv getting chips in if i hit the flush. Its not awful bad, i just think your overplaying the hand :) I really did expect to see villian showdown 10 10.
 
Stefanicov

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This the first hh ive put in here that has caused differing opinions from what i have read my view is that i probably did overplay my hand here but i didnt read for trips with the reraise on the flop. I read this for qq jj maybe kk so when the ace hit i was pretty sure i was ahead. When he took a very long time to call my turn bet i knew i had it and when he went all in on the flush hitting i called with glee:D
 
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