Agonizing with a set...

M

mblmusic

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This is a hand my wife played, and we are still discussing...
At the Aria in a $1/$3 No Limit game the villain (stack of 200BB, loose, and perhaps on tilt) limps in from early position. The Hero (my wife, stack of 170 BB) raises to 6BB from late position with QQ. The blinds fold and the Villain calls. There are 13.5 BB in the pot.
Flop comes :qc4: :9c4: :2c4:
Villain checks, and Hero bets the pot. Villain calls. There are 40.5 BB in the pot
Turn is the :10h4:
Villain checks, and Hero bets the pot again. Villain calls. There are 121.5 BB in the pot.
The River is the :jd4:
Villain goes all-in! What should the Hero have done?
Also, suggestions for how the Hero should have played the flop and turn would be great.
 
J

Jzona1

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Its a tough spot for sure. I lean towards folding the river just because so many hands beat us but it really depends on villians image. You say loose but is that a good loose player or a bad loose player. I think in this instance youd prefer it to be a good loose player just because a bad loose player is chasing gut shots here so often. I think the only bluff he has is Ax with the club though even that is unlikely Though this is possible i think there is a lot more hands he beats us with he holds.

If i were to guess he had some combo draw that got there like maybe K10 with the K of clubs.
 
starting_at_the_bottom

starting_at_the_bottom

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Eugh, I hate it when you have to fold these ones.
 
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gklcap

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I hate folding sets, especially when you've invested a lot into the pot but the river makes it a little easier to fold it. The only hand you're beating is a bluff in this spot.
 
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joe777

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Tough to say,it could be either a bluff or a genuine one.Very hard call to fold this one.
 
VinnyStrat

VinnyStrat

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The other possibility is the villain flopped a flush and checked to allow the hero to catch up. Once the hero bets, the next move is to check and let the hero cbet and then shove on the river.
 
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mblmusic

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Thanks for the replies!

As played, the Hero folded on the River!

A few things bother me about this line. Hero played strongly and without fear of the flush on the flop and turn; Villain must know that Hero is strong and there are flushes in Hero's range. If Villain had the nut flush, why didn't he check raise the Turn for value? Why does the Villain go all-in on the river? Wouldn't a smaller River bet for value or a Check hoping Hero bets again make sense?

I'm guessing Villain didn't have the nut flush because he gave up opportunities to bet for value on the Turn and River. If the Villain has a low flush or caught the straight, would he actually try to bluff the Hero off a flush on the River, or just try to get to showdown? Could the Villain have bluffed the River with a busted draw, or am I just over analyzing to try and find a way to not fold the set?
 
skrsh76

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Shouldn't we be raising a lot more pre? Also why pot turn?
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Easy call if he has it who cares... in the end u cant fold river its a call everyday


AK clubs wouldve 3bet... we wouldve heard from Aclubs or king clubs unless its fishy variety and then that explains y this could b a bluff on river

You beat more then what you lose to
 
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Ll3rOtram

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Bad ROL preflop. villain is on tilt, so ROL X 6 ~.
Bad SPR (12~) postflop for TOP PAIR.
Again villain is on tilt, I almost never fold here.
It's a tought spot created by evitable own mistakes.
 
Last edited:
milka1605

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There could be a villain on the flop a flush. Could he have AJ . He just tried to pull more chips of the hero. Thus and made Allin river. Here the hero was able to save only a full house.
 
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razva_raz94

razva_raz94

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If he is on tilt, i think its a call. He could have a missed flush and try to bluff the river. And i don't think he would call those huge bets with straight draws. Only if he had straight-flush draw.
 
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DunningKruger

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It's a pretty standard fold guys.
 
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TheWiener

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as he is on tilt he's range is pretty much any two - a king, 8 or low flush as possible as a very silly hand.
As we have already invested that much money its a call imo.
 
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vanya384

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I think pot is too big bet on flop and river. Better if you check on flop and turn and if opponet bets no more then 1 pot - raise, if oppenent reraise - fold, call - next bet pot, if oppenent all-in - fold.
 
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massagegirl

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Its a call based on the amount the hero had left compared to the pot size.
 
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6bet me

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I think that the hero played this perfectly. I love the 6x bet preflop, taking advantage of the fact that people love to limp-call in live poker. I also love the pot-sized bets on the flop and turn, since this is a very draw-heavy board and you don't want to price people in to chase their draws. And I think that the river fold was necessary, because so much of the villain's range beats us here. Either the villain could have flopped a flush and is now slow playing it, or the villain could have played a hand like KT or KJ and got there on the river, but I think it's hard for the villain to bluff in this spot when you've shown so much strength prior to this.

In spots like this, I'll often fold and then pay the villain $10 to see his cards (if he accepts it). I love to know when I got out-flopped vs when I got out-played.
 
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