Aces again...

Bombjack

Bombjack

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Any thoughts / analysis?

Seat 1: denty28 - $88.92
Seat 2: VodkaMan - $61.79
Seat 3: Bombjack - $79.80
Seat 4: Vanquish - $38.50
Seat 5: Sarge75 - $48.76
Seat 6: m4rs28 - $35.58
Moving Button to seat 3
Vanquish posts small blind ($0.25)
Sarge75 posts big blind ($0.50)
Shuffling Deck
Dealing Cards
Dealing A♦ A♣ to Bombjack
m4rs28 calls $0.50
denty28 calls $0.50
VodkaMan folds
Bombjack raises to $2
Vanquish folds
Sarge75 folds
m4rs28 folds
denty28 calls $2
Dealing Flop Q♣ [10c] 9♠
denty28 checks
Bombjack bets $3
denty28 raises to $6
Bombjack calls $6
Dealing Turn A♠
denty28 bets $10
Bombjack raises to $30
denty28 raises to $80.92 (all-in)
Bombjack: KJ?
Bombjack....
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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Wow, that's a doozie. I'd have to agree that KJ seems likely. I'm not sure what I'd do or what the right thing to do here is. Just keep in mind, even if you're right on your guess of KJ, you've got close to a 25% chance of winning on the river (although if you were near certain he had it, it goes without saying that you would not have odds to call, but I'm guessing we're not near certain). Got any reads on the guy?

It's also a possibility that he hit a set on the flop and maybe either has a read that you wouldn't have raised 4 BBs with KJ pre-flop or is just hoping that you don't have that hand, or didn't even notice the straight possibility because he's in love with his set. All I know is that, screw odds, 100% of the time I call this my opponent will turn over KJ.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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No real reads except "not a maniac as far as I can tell". :)
 
ChuckTs

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I've seen QJ play more aggressive in similar situations (OMG TOP PAIR + STRAIGHT DRAW? ALLLLL IN!); I think KJ is a definite possibility though...

I suppose it depends on your reads; like combu said, you don't have odds to call if you put your opponent on KJ %100...it's definitely not %100 here, but KJ is pretty up there...I'd be scared of calling this too :/

Also, I can't see QQ/TT/99 not raising PF...my opinion is that he's either got KJ, QJ, or some other type of pair + draw.
 
blankoblanco

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My problem with any pair + draw type of thing... obviously he'd have to realize he's behind in the hand at this point and is drawing to win. Wouldn't he just call Bombjack's raise on the turn? Re-raise all-in with the draw going to the river seems unlikely to me when he's got to realize he's pretty likely to get a call from a decently committed opponent who has raised pre-flop and represented a strong hand throughout. I just don't see why he wouldn't just call the turn.

And Chuck makes a good point about any hands that make sets likely raising PF. I'd forgotten he was first and limped pre-flop.

I'm even more convinced he has KJ than I was before... it seems to fit the best... but still, that's incredibly tough to lay down when you know only one hand is ahead of you at that moment. This is exactly why I play SnGs and not cash games... yikes.
 
ChuckTs

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My problem with any pair + draw type of thing... obviously he'd have to realize he's behind in the hand at this point and is drawing to win. Wouldn't he just call Bombjack's raise on the turn? Re-raise all-in with the draw going to the river seems unlikely to me when he's got to realize he's pretty likely to get a call from a decently committed opponent who has raised pre-flop and represented a really strong hand. I just don't see why he wouldn't just call the turn.

agreed...unless hes a maniac, I don't see him pushing the turn with only a draw.
I'm even more convinced he has KJ than I was before... it seems to fit the best... but still, that's incredibly tough to lay down when you know only one hand is ahead of you at that moment.

again agreed...it just plain fits the hand; I can't really see any other hand pushing...
 
Bombjack

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Given the actual betting, what do you think about
a) a re-raise on the flop
b) a call on the turn?
 
withawedge

withawedge

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Re-Raise

If he's chasing make him pay

:)
 
Vintage82

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I think re-raising the flop is a must, its a very heavy drawing board. KJ is up there, but i'm thinking 2 pair maybe, A10-AQ is a possibility also. I think your ahead here more often than not. I call and post in the bad beat board when I see the KJ. :rolleyes:
 
Schatzdog

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I'm thinking AQ myself based on his betting actions. Pretty tough board though, very draw heavy.

What do you think he thinks you have?
 
Bombjack

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Schatzdog said:
What do you think he thinks you have?
From his point of view I could have AA, KK, QQ, TT, 99, AQ, KQ, KJ, maybe even QT suited (we're short-handed after all)
 
blankoblanco

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I'm thinking AQ myself based on his betting actions.

AQ is a possibility, but it seems weird to me that he would limp pre-flop with AQ... I mean it's not as though it's a good enough hand to trap with, and you're shorthanded, so I'd think you would pretty much always want to raise it, unless you have some read on him that he always likes to see flops cheap and almost never raises pre-flop. Limping with KJ makes more sense to me. Hell, it's possible he has the J8 straight... seems more likely to me than AQ, personally.
 
Schatzdog

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I agree with you. I mis-read the initial post and thought the caller was someone else, not the limper. Apologies.

Well, there goes my theory anyway.
 
gord962

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This seems like a A-T type of bet to me, but I wouldn't rule out QJ spades. This is typical as he tries to knock you off the pot thinking you have AK. Although K-J is very possible, why would he push with the nuts instead of calling. Hopefully for you the board pairs on the river!
 
blankoblanco

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Although K-J is very possible, why would he push with the nuts instead of calling.

I'm guessing because there are 2 flush draws on the board. If I had KJ I'd have pushed here as well.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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Thanks for the comments all. I was thinking KJ even before I raised on the turn. He clearly liked his hand a lot and was not afraid of the Ace. In fact after the check-min-raise on the flop I wouldn't have been that comfortable calling on the turn if no Ace had come, as apart from KJ, I'd suspect 2 pair. The Ace gives me the chance to beat 2 pair, but I still have to be aware of the straight possibilities.

So a raise here was a bad move I think, but folding would have been a bit tight - a call would have been best. It's one of those hands where I should have tried to control the pot size and limit the damage, although I had a draw to the nuts.

As analysed above, the fact that he limped pre-flop makes it hard to put him on a set. If I'd had more time to think about it I might have done the right thing, but you just don't have enough time in these online hands.

Dealing Turn [As]
denty28 bets $10
Bombjack raises to $30
denty28 raises to $80.92 (all-in)
Bombjack: KJ?
Bombjack calls $71.80 (all-in)
Returning $9.12 to denty28 uncalled
denty28 shows [Jh] [Ks]
Bombjack shows [Ad] [Ac]
Dealing River [5h]
Taking Rake of $3 from pot 1
denty28 has Straight, Ace high
denty28 wins $157.85 with: Straight, Ace high
 
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