AA on the button, what to do on flop?

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I have A♥A♣ and am on the button ($1/$2 limit hold'em). One limper to me, I raise, big blind and limper call. The flop comes

Q♣Q♠7♣

It's checked to me. What do I do - check or bet? Explain your reasoning. Compare the two options to each other and their relative value.

Cheers,
FP
 
Tammy

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Hmmm...this is a tough hand, because in limit, you can be sure that your opponents could be holding just about anything. But I for one would come out betting, if only to see where my Aces stand in the hand. For all I know, someone could be trying the 'ol check-raise approach. If I get a raise, at least I have some idea of what I'm up against. Not only that, but there is also a club flush draw on the board, and if anyone is on the draw, why would I let them get the flush for free?

Sorry I haven't discussed the relative value, but you see with three small children, the portion of my brain that handles those types of things is virtually shriveled to the size of an almond...:D
 
Stick66

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F Paulsson said:
I have A♥A♣ and am on the button ($1/$2 limit hold'em). One limper to me, I raise, big blind and limper call. The flop comes

Q♣Q♠7♣

It's checked to me. What do I do - check or bet? Explain your reasoning. Compare the two options to each other and their relative value.

Cheers,
FP

I'd bet the flop since it's the small $1 bet. If you get raised, you can fold only having spent one extra buck. If you get callers only, you can assume they are chasing the club flush. Then just pray another club doesn't hit and keep betting (or if 2 more clubs hit, you have the Ace). A tough one with a big pot, but I've laid down Aces with a small pot.
 
nateofdeath

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MrSticker said:
I'd bet the flop since it's the small $1 bet. If you get raised, you can fold only having spent one extra buck. If you get callers only, you can assume they are chasing the club flush. Then just pray another club doesn't hit and keep betting (or if 2 more clubs hit, you have the Ace). A tough one with a big pot, but I've laid down Aces with a small pot.

if i bet the flop, i'd have a hard time folding for another dollar

my first inclination was to say i'd bet the flop as well to see where i stood, but if i was raised, i wouldn't want to fold. seems like a lot of people might call with the flush draw anyway. i think i'd probably check and see what would happen on the turn. i tend to be overly parinoid, and that's probably too tight of a play. i am curious to know what the "right" move is. i have to read your articles one of these days Mr Paulsson.

-n
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Bet, considering you're the only player to have really represented strength preflop. The limp-call is one of the weakest moves in poker, and a lot of players will call a raise with anything from the BB at this limit, so both players ranges are very high. So we need information. Assuming decent opponents I'll bet out, if raised I'll 3 bet and I'll most likely hate myself and fold if capped (unless villain has capped flops with draws/crap before, draws will usually call the 3-bet and low pp's may well fold), somewhat happy because I've actually saved a bet by not doing something silly like check-calling down on all streets.

Check-raising is another option, and often ditching if 3-bet. There's not too much danger in potentially giving a free card here.
 
F Paulsson

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Dorkus Malorkus said:
There's not too much danger in potentially giving a free card here.
Barring the potential flush, but another club on the board suddenly opens up a bunch of new outs if we're already behind. Keep in mind, though, that I'm on the button, meaning that a free card is not "potentially" given - it's checked to me, and I can either bet out or check.

Is my hand strong enough to warrant slowplaying it to try to induce a bluff (or make someone else hit a hand) on the next street?

If I bet and get called, what's my plan of action for the turn and river? Bet/fold the turn? Value-bet the river?

If I bet and get checkraised, what do I do when I'm bet into on the turn? Fold unimproved? If I'm checkraised on the flop, I think I'll have to peel and see the turn.

If I check and it's bet on the turn, do I raise? Or call, and raise the river (but folding to a 3-bet)?
 
Schatzdog

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I would bet this out. Again this obviously depends on the quality and read of your opponents but I think if any of your opponents had a Queen then they would lead out (due to the flush possibility). If either of them has a flush draw then you are ahead and holding one of their outs. Bet when ahead.

Is my hand strong enough to warrant slowplaying it to try to induce a bluff (or make someone else hit a hand) on the next street? I don't think so. You are fairly vulnerable at this point but IMHO ahead so get the money in the middle now.

If I bet and get called, what's my plan of action for the turn and river? Bet/fold the turn? Value-bet the river? It depends what falls off next. A queen or an ace are magic obviously. Slow play away. If the club hits then you have the nut draw, but may be drawing to a made hand in which case you are two more outs short. Work out the pot odds and re-assess.

If I bet and get checkraised, what do I do when I'm bet into on the turn? Fold unimproved? If I'm checkraised on the flop, I think I'll have to peel and see the turn. I would definately stay in this one to the turn. This is a nice flop to bluff at too, so are any of your opponents known bluffers? If a blank falls again I would keep firing at the pot.

If I check and it's bet on the turn, do I raise? Or call, and raise the river (but folding to a 3-bet) I think you are looking too far ahead at this stage. Take it street by street with what actually comes off.?[/quote]
 
F Paulsson

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If I'm going to check this flop (which I didn't, but that's not really the point), I want to do it for the right reasons; that's why I'm including the river play in case I check.

The reason I want to discuss the option of checking is because of how it seems to me that the relative value of my hand is unlikely to change with the next card. If I'm ahead now, I'm very likely ahead after the next card (or have a redraw to make me ahead again). If I'm behind now, I have two (maybe four) outs, and am unlikely to catch up.

If I'm ahead: Any legitimate draw that they could have (a flush draw) is not going to bail out to a single bet here either, so I can't bet to protect: I can only bet for value, and giving them correct odds in taking another card.

If I'm behind: I get a free card on the turn giving me a chance to catch up. I will also have more information based on how they bet, and possibly induce a bluff that will make me money that I otherwise will have missed out on.

I think it's close between checking and betting. However, and this is important, if I did not have a redraw to the nut flush, I would bet this flop every time, as a third club could spell disaster.
 
Schatzdog

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I see what you mean and that is a pretty good point. How did the hand play out?
 
F Paulsson

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I saw the two queens and the potential flush draw, and decided to bet: They both folded.

My bet wasn't well thought through - I've noticed that I'm starting to play more on autopilot and less with afterthought lately, which I'll be trying to reverse - and I realized after they both folded that a bet might not have been so obviously the correct move here.

If one of them has a queen, he's going to punch me for (at least) another two big bets here, regardless of what I do on the flop. If someone has two clubs, betting here won't push them off, meaning that my bet has an expected value of:

(0.70*+1) + (0.30*-1) = 0.30
His chance of improving to a flush and have me beat by the river is 30%.

If he has a seven, he likely won't fold to one bet either, but he's getting considerably worse odds to call. A small bet is pretty valuable here in that situation; only 7% of the time will I lose that, giving me something like $.87

Any other combination of two cards falls below the 5% line of having me beat at this point, as they all require runner-runner outs.

So to summarize:
* If I'm behind, I'll pay off.
* If I'm ahead, I'm really only missing value from a stray 7 that's hoping to hit a full house. There's some missed value from a flush draw, but not much (and, as a bonus, if they miss their flush on the turn, their pot odds of calling a turn bet are much worse)

The real reason to bet this flop is that knowing the regular competition at this level means knowing that people might call here with something like 10-9o, because maybe they'll get a straight draw on the turn, though. So I'm still leaning towards betting this flop.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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F Paulsson said:
Barring the potential flush, but another club on the board suddenly opens up a bunch of new outs if we're already behind. Keep in mind, though, that I'm on the button, meaning that a free card is not "potentially" given - it's checked to me, and I can either bet out or check.?

Misread. Being button makes this a pretty standard bet, for the reasons already given. Checking is wasting an opportunity to gain information, and against such a wide range of holdings for your opponents is most likely missing out on value.

F Paulsson said:
The real reason to bet this flop is that knowing the regular competition at this level means knowing that people might call here with something like 10-9o, because maybe they'll get a straight draw on the turn, though. So I'm still leaning towards betting this flop.

Bad opponents limp-calling pf and then calling down after a flop like that with a mid-low pocket pair is also pretty possible too. I see people call down with 55 etc after high paired flops it's silly.
 
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