re: Poker & AA on the button, what to do on flop?
I saw the two queens and the potential flush draw, and decided to bet: They both folded.
My bet wasn't well thought through - I've noticed that I'm starting to play more on autopilot and less with afterthought lately, which I'll be trying to reverse - and I realized after they both folded that a bet might not have been so obviously the correct move here.
If one of them has a queen, he's going to punch me for (at least) another two big bets here, regardless of what I do on the flop. If someone has two clubs, betting here won't push them off, meaning that my bet has an expected value
(0.70*+1) + (0.30*-1) = 0.30
His chance of improving to a flush and have me beat by the river is 30%.
If he has a seven, he likely won't fold to one bet either, but he's getting considerably worse odds to call. A small bet is pretty valuable here in that situation; only 7% of the time will I lose that, giving me something like $.87
Any other combination of two cards falls below the 5% line of having me beat at this point, as they all require runner-runner outs.
So to summarize:
* If I'm behind, I'll pay off.
* If I'm ahead, I'm really only missing value from a stray 7 that's hoping to hit a full house. There's some missed value from a flush draw, but not much (and, as a bonus, if they miss their flush on the turn, their pot odds
of calling a turn bet are much worse)
The real reason to bet this flop is that knowing the regular competition at this level means knowing that people might call here with something like 10-9o, because maybe they'll get a straight draw on the turn, though. So I'm still leaning towards betting this flop.