AA and a bad turn card

fulltiltpoker Game #7811448086: Table Georgia - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:36:52 ET - 2008/08/26
Seat 1: imwithstupids ($5)
Seat 2: castvilla ($4.50)
Seat 3: Wome1984 ($13.55)
Seat 4: Launcher 290 ($10.20)
Seat 5: Freddy-MF ($24.95)
Seat 6: aliengenius ($9.90)
Seat 7: LZL33 ($25)
Seat 8: bazooka71 ($20.45)
Seat 9: PerryF ($16.15)
imwithstupids posts the small blind of $0.10
castvilla posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aliengenius [Ah] [Ad]
Wome1984 folds
Launcher 290 folds
Freddy-MF folds
aliengenius raises to $0.85
LZL33 calls $0.85
bazooka71 folds
PerryF folds
imwithstupids folds
castvilla folds
*** FLOP *** [2d] [5d] [Kd]
aliengenius bets $1.35
LZL33 calls $1.35
*** TURN *** [2d 5d Kd] [Kc]
aliengenius ???

now what? I can't check-fold w the nut flush (re)draw, can I? I have 7.70 behind, and the pot is 4.75...

any reads on this villain?? I probably ch/c turn and depending on how large he bets c/f river unless an A or diamond hit

bw07507 said:

any reads on this villain?? I probably ch/c turn and depending on how large he bets c/f river unless an A or diamond hit

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No reads, she just sat down, can't remember if this was her first or second hand at the table.

The problem I see w a check call is that it's half my remaining stack... I now have no money left and am thinking "pot committed" on the river.

No reads, she just sat down, can't remember if this was her first or second hand at the table.

The problem I see w a check call is that it's half my remaining stack... I now have no money left and am thinking "pot committed" on the river.

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So if ch/calling has you committed to any river, then betting and getting called would have you committed to any river aswell right?? Obv by betting on the turn we would be betting for value since we aren't folding out anything we beat. By betting we fold out every hand that we have crushed and hands that have us beat take our stack anyways. By checking we allow him to bluff with a worse hand allowing us to get his stack when he has nothing and lose our stack when we are beat.

Other than ch/folding which I think is terrible I'm not sure how we can do anything here other than ch/call.

bw07507 said:

By betting we fold out every hand that we have crushed and hands that have us beat take our stack anyways.

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This ^^ isn't true, however. I think A LOT of weak one card flushes call (yep, even after the board pairs).

bw07507 said:

So if ch/calling has you committed to any river, then betting and getting called would have you committed to any river aswell right??

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Yes.

This ^^ isn't true, however. I think A LOT of weak one card flushes call (yep, even after the board pairs).

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Even at 25NL I didn't see too many players that would call a bet there with just a random diamond in their hand. The only hands I could see you getting called with that you beat are 7d7x - TdTx and I'll even add JdJx that decided to flat preflop.

bw07507 said:

Even at 25NL I didn't see too many players that would call a bet there with just a random diamond in their hand. The only hands I could see you getting called with that you beat are 7d7x - TdTx and I'll even add JdJx that decided to flat preflop.

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What about QdTx, QdJx, AxQd ?

What about QdTx, QdJx, AxQd ?

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I mean, unless the player is very very bad, hes not calling a well sized turn bet with any of these cards. I could see him floating one of these hands which is why i suggest ch/calling as you will see lots of bluffs from these types of hands after u check turn. I don't think theres any way they are calling a 2barrel on this board.

btw, I just noticed u were shortstacked, thought this was 10NL for most of my posts, so yea, I don't think im ever folding AA with a shortstack like this, but i still agree ch/calling or maybe ch/shoving is the better line.

seems like a good spot to either c/c or make a small suckbet to like $1.25-$1.50. the latter is not something i do often but here is as good a spot as any. if you're not beat already, then basically any hand they could have is drawing very close to dead against you. the small bet will keep them around with a diamond, and they can also think it's a weak attempt to buy a draw and raise it. a "properly" sized bet risks folding out pretty much all those weaker diamond draws, and therefore most of the hands you beat

i have no real intentions of folding this hand in a raised pot vs. an unknown when you started with about 40 BBs. so i'm just concerned with keeping them around and getting some value from the hands we beat, if they have you beat so be it

I like betting an amount we think he might be enticed to call with Qd or Jd in his hand. We know he's drawing dead, but he doesn't. I'm not folding at any point to any raise after the turn.

Uh... the range of hands we can get value from is pretty slim. Wouldn't it be better to check and hope they check behind & we both make a flush?

but why isn't it even better to make a bet small enough that a high diamond will almost certainly call? then the pot is bigger if we hit a flush and we make more when the flush doesn't hit

You are behind, you have to hit to win this pot. I put the villian on KQ. You have 9 outs. Push all in and be ready to rebuy or check and be ready to fold

Cowboy8112 said:

You are behind, you have to hit to win this pot. I put the villian on KQ. You have 9 outs. Push all in and be ready to rebuy or check and be ready to fold

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how do you put an unknown villain on exactly KQ based on two actions, both of which are calls, on this sort of board?

yes they might have it but they might not

(also you forgot the aces as outs)

My mistake 10 outs ( the Qd wont help).
Calling the .85 bet tell me thay have a hand, or a hand in the making, ie, KQ or at least paints.
calling after the flop, just calling not pushing tells me they hit but not good enough or they would have come back over the top of the bet.
I dont see them with a set of 2s or 5s because that would (should)mean a push to see where they stand with that board.
So either they are a Donk (and under estimating opents is the fastest way to the rail) or they hit a K, with 3 Diamonds on the board the other hole card has to be a high diamond, since out Hero has the Ad, I put the villan on the Qd.

c9h13no3 said:

Uh... the range of hands we can get value from is pretty slim. Wouldn't it be better to check and hope they check behind & we both make a flush?

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I don't think the range is that slim, really, but I could be convinced otherwise. I think a lot of people call a small bet on this turn with a medium PP with a diamond in it, and some Qd and Jd hands as well. They're worried about trips, sure, but they can't assume that they're drawing dead.

We won't make a flush very often. And if they're not willing to pay off a small bet with a weak flushdraw, why would they pay off a big bet with a small flush?

I don't think this has to be a king - especially against an unknown, I actually figure we're up against a pretty wide range here.

It could be pretty much any medium to high pocket pair, an Ax diamond draw (maybe even some weird A3/A4 straight draw to go with it), some other diamond draw, a flopped flush, a set, or a king.

The flat call on the flop makes me more likely to think it's either a monster (a flopped flush) or a flush draw. A naked king surely wants to raise in that spot, unless they've got a diamond draw as a backup and even if they do, it's a non-nut draw. Same probably goes for a set, except sets can't possibly have a diamond in their hand, so they've gotta be even more concerned about the flush.

Sooooo... I think villain's range is too large for us to be getting away from this.

I'd bet the turn, maybe around the $2-$3 mark? If villain's got a diamond draw and misses we're going to have a hard time making any more money out of them on the river, unless they hit some other hand that beats us.

You may very well be right, If I got all my reads correct you would be writting threads about me not with me.

That being said, I can't put the vallain on an A, our Hero has 2 of them.
if she saw that flop with the 3d4d she may just be tagging along looking for the A or 6. Other wise the $1.35 call would only be made with a K and high spade (Qor J) and looking for the board to pair and whipe out any higher flush. imo

I sure would like to know what happened.......I hate cliffhangers

Cowboy8112 said:

That being said, I can't put the vallain on an A, our Hero has 2 of them.

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That means there's two aces left in the deck - you can't discount Ax as part of the villain's range of hands. By that logic we couldn't put the villain on a king either, because there are already two of them on the board.

Well, I have seen people do some really strange stuff, and if they are a complete donk they may very well be calling with a bluff. However, I just can't put the villain on a Ax and calling these bets. If she comes over the top maybe but not with just the calls.
So the only 2 hands I can put her on is KQ, Q being a diamond or 3d4d, either way our Hero is a 3 to 1 underdog and has to hit to win. Once again this is just my read of the hand and I am not discounting anyone elses read, It is just my opinion

um the ENTIRE problem with this hand is that you sat down with 40bbs. don't do that and this hand becomes 100000 times easier.

If you are trying to play shortstacked, but your stack is such that you aren't happy about getting it all in after the flop with AA then you really need to adjust your buy in size. Raise more preflop and c-bet more as well, because your goal here should be to commit yourself as quickly as possible.

If you buy in w/ $6-7, raise $1 pf and c-bet 1.75 on the flop, then this hand is obviously a no brainer.

Anyways you can't fold this this short, and i don't really see why the Kc is such a scare card since villain's peeling range involves alot more than a K (not to mention the very fact the K came on the turn reduces the odds of villain having it). I'd probably bet call shove here on turn unless villain is really aggressive and likely to try and shove turn as a bluff, in which case if you c/c you'll have gain a little more value from the occasional bluff. Still i like bet-call shove, as villain could check behind with many hands that aren't going to call certain rivers (pps w/a diamond etc).

In nl25, when faced with a short stack I certainly think ppl get involved in pots that they shouldn't, because they figure it can't cost them all that much money, so you could get called here with some pretty random hands i think. Fact remains, however, that you simply cannot play shortstacked and ever fold AA.

Cowboy8112 said:

Well, I have seen people do some really strange stuff, and if they are a complete donk they may very well be calling with a bluff. However, I just can't put the villain on a Ax and calling these bets. If she comes over the top maybe but not with just the calls.
So the only 2 hands I can put her on is KQ, Q being a diamond or 3d4d, either way our Hero is a 3 to 1 underdog and has to hit to win. Once again this is just my read of the hand and I am not discounting anyone elses read, It is just my opinion

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combinatorially wise however those hands are incredibly incredibly incredibly unlikely. All we see is that villain has called a tiny cbet, so you automatically assume villain must have TP + 2nd NFD or has flopped a flush with an open ended redraw to the straight flush? These 2 hands are a TINY portion of villain's range.

You can't put villain on Ax coz hero has AA but you put villain on a K even tho there are 2 on board? That is rather inconsistent thinking.

It is a little hard to tell without stats, but most players would get any big hands/combo draws in on the flop and most fish would call for a short stackers stack here with any random hand that looks like it might have some sort of equity.

feitr said:

um the ENTIRE problem with this hand is that you sat down with 40bbs. don't do that and this hand becomes 100000 times easier.

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Maybe he just lost a pot for a big part of his stack ?
And hasn't been able to rebuy yet.

well from what i understand FT has auto top up so i doubt it...