@#$^$#@ AA

So can I get away from this?

$1/$2 NLHE ($40 buyin), 9 players. I'm king of the table with around $450 on the button (playing tight the last hour or so), LP is a dealer playing in his own casino with around $180 (reasonable tight, but hyper-aggressive), CO is new to the table (only played 1 hand, been sitting around 6 hands) with $50.

I get the good old [As][Ac]. LP calls, CO min-raises to $4, I re-raise to $12. Both players call.

Flop comes [7s][9h][Jc].
LP checks, CO bets 12. I really want to either shut it down or isolate, so I re-raise to 50. LP goes all-in, CO folds.

Can I fold here? I have to call off around $120 bucks for a pot of $260. I can't believe he would play a T8, but I don't think he's go all in on just TP.

A set is very possible, though I think 77/99/JJ raise in LP.

T8 from a 'reasonably tight' player facing a raise + reraise? He's being sandwiched in between the two raisers PF and I really don't see him calling here if you pin him as a tight player.

call

I think you have to call your getting 2-1 on your call and I think you are ahead more then half the time here. I actully expect him to have QQ or KK and was doing a stop and go and was going to push on flop if there was NO A or K if he has QQ.

JJ is only other hand I put him on, I could see playing JJ by just calling to play it purely for set value. But regardless im calling here I think you are ahead enough to justify a call. If he has a set so be it but I just cant see folding AA here with a board like that.

I call

I figured finally that maybe he had JTs or something else silly and was just trying to buy me out on TP and a draw, and called.

I'll wait for a few more responses before I post the ending.

reraise bigger preflop

and theres no way in hell you can fold AA in a rr pot (even if 1s raise was just a minraise, but rr bigger and this isnt a problem)

If you don't think he makes this move with TPTK or suchlike (I'm not gonna comment on the wisdom or otherwise of thinking this just yet), what hands is he making this play with that you're ahead of?

Seeing as you've played your hand pretty much face-up, I think there's a strong chance you're behind here. He probably has J9 / 97 / 77. I think he raises pre-flop with 99 / JJ. You could be ahead of QT, JT or 86 or KK/QQ. T8 is possible but I think he just calls with that and tries to keep the third player in. So... marginally a fold I'd say.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

If you don't think he makes this move with TPTK or suchlike (I'm not gonna comment on the wisdom or otherwise of thinking this just yet), what hands is he making this play with that you're ahead of?

Click to expand...

I can't really put him on any hand is the problem. T8 is an unlikely PF caller after raise/reraise. Any pocket pair that hit a set should have either raised as the first hand in PF, or folded to the raise/reraise. QQ or KK is possible, but why did he limp in late position. His PF play followed by the check/all-in confused the heck out of me. JT was about the only hand that made sense, but I couldn't see him being that aggressive when I'm obviously raising with a strong hand.

So as it turns out I was a little off - he had a J9s (forget what suit), two pair, which help up through the turn (2) and river (K)
CO said he had KQs, and didn't want to pay for the gutshot.

I'm still not sure what I could have done in this position, though - given the PF betting, can I really predict he had a set or two pair on this board?

Yep, J9 is about the only hand that really makes sense. Even maniacs don't generally push with one pair when you've shown that much strength pre-flop and on the flop... you could probably have found a fold here, it's not as though you're pot-committed. You've put in $62 total and things have started to look bad... no-one's forcing you to put in another $120.

Bombjack said:

Yep, J9 is about the only hand that really makes sense. Even maniacs don't generally push with one pair when you've shown that much strength pre-flop and on the flop... you could probably have found a fold here, it's not as though you're pot-committed. You've put in $62 total and things have started to look bad... no-one's forcing you to put in another $120.

Click to expand...

It's the hand that makes most sense given the flop and his betting on the flop, but I hadn't seen him make that kind of bad call PF before - he's agrressive, but not loose. J9 into a raise/reraise was a bad call on his part that worked out really well, and I just couldn't believe he did that PF. Obviously, it was a good call, given the value he got out of it, but any other hand (say KK even) and I might have let it go...

Hes a dealer playing in his own casino?

RIGGED! Id definitely called.