77 turned into bluff?

The Shrog

The Shrog

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Was in the pot to set-mine..so maybe I should have let it go after I missed on the flop. I decided to peel and take it away when he checked the turn. After he flats, I now have him on hand like mine, maybe even a JJ. I just can't see him check-calling with AK/AQ. He's 7/2/something, so extremely tight. Do we just check behind on the end? Is it worth firing at, trying to get folds out of 88/99/JJ?

Stacks:

BB with $10.05
UTG with $10.00
UTG+1 with $11.05
MP1 with $10.00
MP2 with $10.00
CO with $13.70
BTN with $7.45
SB with $17.20
Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Pokerstars
Dealt to UTG+1:7♥ 7♦
Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
1 players fold.
UTG+1 calls [$0.10]
4 players fold.
SB calls [$0.05]
BB raises $0.30 to $0.40
UTG+1 calls [$0.30]
SB calls [$0.30]
Total folds this street: 5
Potsize: $1.2
Flop:
10♦ 4♥ 2♠
SB: checks
BB bets [$0.90]
UTG+1 calls [$0.90]
1 players folded.
Total folds this street: 1
Potsize: $3
Turn:
4♠
BB: checks
UTG+1 bets [$1.50]
1 players fold.
BB calls [$1.50]
Potsize: $6
River:
A♦
BB: checks



 
S93

S93

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7/2 isnt folding here imo.
I really dont like floating him on the flop since he haves overpairs so often and theres no real draw u can rep on the turn to take the pot down.
On the river i just check behind hating my self when he turns over 99-JJ.
I also probably raise instead of open limping prf
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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What is the sample size on villain's stats?

Preflop: i don't like open limping ever. open-raise your pocket pairs.

Flop: meh, against a 7/2 floating is just spew.

Turn: not really a good card to fire with. you're certainly not folding any overpair and bet sizing (half pot) is so small that i suspect even AK may stay in the hand.

River: With the A on board, there's exactly 0% of villain's range that you beat. So you can only win the hand by bluffing. The problem is that an A makes no sense in your hand given previous action, and the only hand you are credibly representing is 22. So if villain was good, he'd call your bluff a lot even with a pocket pair above yours.

Of course, a 7/2 is certainly not a good thinking player, so it may be ok. But really, you'd make your life a lot easier by giving up on flop.
 
The Shrog

The Shrog

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Preflop: i don't like open limping ever. open-raise your pocket pairs.

Alright, so even down to 22 we're opening UTG? If 3-bet...how can we profitable use these hands to set mine?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Alright, so even down to 22 we're opening UTG? If 3-bet...how can we profitable use these hands to set mine?

You can also fold them if the table is too aggressive.

The problem with limping from early position is twofold:

1. When there's a raise and you call, it defines your range pretty much, and most of the time you'll be playing your hand out of position post flop against the preflop raiser who can then control pot size and that should deny you proper implied odds if he's decent.

2. When nobody raises and you end up with a big multiway pot, nobody will want to pay you off unless they hit a monster much bigger than TPTK, and you'll be paying off straights and flushes as often as you'll be stacking two pairs.

These may not be huge problems at your stakes, but it's a bad habit that will get you crucified as you move up.
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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Found this older thread on set mining and small PP that may help.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Any idea of your table image at the time? Does villain think you're bad enough to limp call with a weak Ace? If so you can bet at the river. If he thinks an Ace can still be part of your range that plays this way I'd bet full pot and hold my breath. If your stats are even semi normal he's just not going to believe you so save your $$.
 
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