$6000 NLHE 6-max: shove A7 in sb in 25/50 cap game?

Omahahahaha

Omahahahaha

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i was watching some 25/50 NLHE on pokerstars and I saw a player jam all in with A7o after it was folded to him in the SB. This game has a 20 bb cap so effective stack sizes are 20 bbs.


So if his opponent calls all better hands and folds all worse hands then this is going to be -EV.

88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK

6 combos = 36 combos

AA, 77 = 6 combos (3 of each)

A8, A9, AT, AJ, AQ, AK = 12 combos of each = 72 combos

72 + 36 + 6 = 114 combos of hands that have him beat.

1326/114

1 in 11.63 times his opponent will have a hand that beats him.


so 91.41% of the time he takes down 75 = +68



8.59% of the time he gets it in with 28.51% equity for 1k = -570 = -48.963


Okay I was wrong. So shoving is +EV even if he turns his cards face up. His opponent can also call with worse hands like KQs or KJs or a worse ace which makes the situation even more profitable.

Also I think I slightly over estimate the expected loss when getting it in as a dog because I do not factor that he is already in for 25. So he's not risking 1k he's risking 975 to win 975 + 50.
 
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