$600 NLHE Full Ring: Turn Raise w nuts, River scare card led into

$600 NL HE Full Ring: Turn Raise w nuts, River scare card led into

About 8 hands into the session. I've never seen villain before but for what it's worth he was inquiring about a 5-10 game before the game started instead of the planned 5-5

Mississippi Straddle $15, Both blinds call,MP calls, we call from the CO with J T and the straddle checks.


Flop: A K 5 (Pot $75)

Flop is checked around

Turn: Q

SB leads out for $50 folds to us and we pop to $165, button folds, and villain calls the $115 more

River: 7 (Pot $405)

Villain leads for $250

Is this one of those weird spots, where villain basically has to have a flush with this bet sizing since blocker bets with good (but worse than ours) hands would probably be sized slightly smaller and there really isn't too much villain can call a turn raise with and then bluff this river with?

Call or Fold?

Nothing makes sense other than a flush to bet the river. Blocker bet is very unlikely due to size. It is possible that, if villain is competent, he is calling turn to bluff any spade river but he probably does not do this very often. Its a question of whether he is spazzing out or not and seeing as there is no history on him, we cannot assume he is. It is most likely a crying fold here but a call is never going to be too -ev imo.

Totally gross but probably a fold, hard to imagine what strong hands wouldn't just repop the turn...sets and two pair get it in on the turn cuz they're scared of the straight/flush draws as well.

This:

Zybomb said:

About 8 hands into the session. I've never seen villain before

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... Does not grok with this:

villain basically has to have a flush with this bet sizing since blocker bets with good (but worse than ours) hands would probably be sized slightly smaller and there really isn't too much villain can call a turn raise with and then bluff this river with?

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And that means that the answer to this:

Call or Fold?

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... is "call." I agree that there probably aren't a lot of bluffs in his range, and I agree that a flush makes the most sense if he's good, but I really discourage anyone from making big laydowns when they're getting 2.5:1 on the river versus unknowns.

F Paulsson said:

This:



... Does not grok with this:



And that means that the answer to this:



... is "call." I agree that there probably aren't a lot of bluffs in his range, and I agree that a flush makes the most sense if he's good, but I really discourage anyone from making big laydowns when they're getting 2.5:1 on the river versus unknowns.

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See it's interesting... while you take the 'unknown' factor to lead to that (don't make big laydowns against unknowns), I kind of push it the other way...

On the river the bet SIZING is what really makes me want to fold... like if he bet slightly less, like $175-190ish , I think it's a snap since this could easily be 2 pair/sets trying to showdown cheaper figuring I can't raise w/o a flush myself... But this $250 is like a size that's too big for a blocker bet, and there aren't many hands that can call the turn raise and then have to bluff the river, unless villain is advanced enough to give me JT and call with 55 or something hoping the board pairs or planning to bluff spades to get me off JT if a spade comes. Given that he is an unknown (and so I am to him thus he has no clue if I'd fold JT or not) I can safely assume that we can't assign this line of thinking to him. I usually don't give unknowns credit for being creative enough to turn made hands into bluffs..

So which way do we take the unknown factor?

I'd still call here.

It could sized a big larger to discourage you from continuing a bluff in his eyes since the spade would be a good card to bluff at. If he'd bet $190 you might be more inclined to continue a bluff forcing him to fold.

It is likely that his hand will include a flush here, but I can't find a fold against an unknown. If his got it, make note.



Would you be more inclined to call/fold if he'd bet say closer to pot, $350+ ?????

TimmyOtool said:

Would you be more inclined to call/fold if he'd bet say closer to pot, $350+ ?????

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More inclined to fold since this bet extremely polarizes his range to nuts (slash flushes) / bluff. Given that he called a turn raise OOP, it's hard to see what bluffing hands he could have in his range given that flush draws got there, most players aren't creative enough to bluff with 55 or equivalent, and the only straight draws that would continue would also have spades (i guess outside of 86 64 but these have to be discounted slightly bc even suited UTG vs a Mississippi straddle these hands aren't always completing from the SB )

Zybomb said:

So which way do we take the unknown factor?

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The way the pot odds dictate. I'm not saying that this hand necessarily has enough equity against a certain range, just that we're uncertain and the pot odds for calling river bets that are less than pot size are going to make calling the better play way more often than folding.

It's a really good time to turn into a calling station.

This might be a dumb question, but why would he lead there with a flush? Wouldn't he put you on the type of hand that's going to value bet the river with worse? I think it's a bluff, or thin value bet from a set / two pair type hand that missed a check raise on the flop. I'd call.

Then again, maybe that's why I'd get taken to school at this level.

chattin35 said:

This might be a dumb question, but why would he lead there with a flush? Wouldn't he put you on the type of hand that's going to value bet the river with worse? I think it's a bluff, or thin value bet from a set / two pair type hand that missed a check raise on the flop. I'd call.

Then again, maybe that's why I'd get taken to school at this level.

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Hmm.. interesting.. Sorry slight change of topic.

Hypothetically, if Villan did have a flush here, would it be better to donk bet, or C/R.?

MY understanding of this would be donking allows to get value from 2-pair/set/straight hands, but a C/R would get value from hands that were bluffing along with set/straight/2-pair hands? Of course your C/R would probably never get called, but it would trap some bluffs?


OF course this is a live cash game, I don't know how thin people usually bet for value say a weak 2-pair hand hoping to get called by an ace.

I think the donk bet would probably be the default play.