$600 NLHE Full Ring: 2pair on flop ends with straight on board

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pioneertilt

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New here so hope I include all the necessary info. I'm at a 3/6 (approx.) table at a local casino. The table is full of fish who like to limp into every pot and will call virtually any PF raise so hard to isolate unless you make a big bet. The villain in this case is one of the 3 players at the table who aren't fish. Hand goes something like this:

3 players limp in for $6 each. Me (cutoff) (stack = ~100BB) raises to $42. I'm holding Ad4d

Villain (button) (stack = ~150BB) calls. Villain has got called down bluffing multiple times before. Everyone else folds

Pot = $111

Flop - Ac 4s 2s

I bet $110. Villain calls. Pot = $331

Turn - 3d

I check. Villain checks.

River - 5s

I check. Villain bets $300

Action?
 
thatguy6793

thatguy6793

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Well the real question here is whether you can put a 6 in the villains range or if you just think he's overplaying two pair. The other possibility is that he hit the flush which then has you beat. Can't really say anything about his range though without more info, but 66 or A6s could be playable hands for him. I'd actually fold here against that bet. If he's like really clever he's trying to make you fold the community hand and stop the pot from being split since you both would have the same best hand if he doesn't have the six (A-5 straight), but that's just something I've seen happen online every now and then so watch out for it.
 
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braveslice

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Very annoying question to answer because the math is annoying, anyways here it goes. Try 1, I would give it 15% to be right:

U call and chop and win ½*331 = 165.5
U call and lose 300
U fold and lose 0

x*165.5-(1-x)*300=0 -> x= 65%

That is villain needs to bluff 65% of the time. Now only you can answer if he is really bluffing that much, after calling the flop bet, but I would guess no-way. So folding is only play.

The problem here is of course that he knows you can't call if you are good player, but you still have some weak flush draws that might protect you giving you a call range. But this part is way above my skill level. I would guess you need to call 6x and low flushes.
 
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JKo2theQQ

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Unfortunately, I think we need to find a fold here. Since you believe this villain is somewhat capable (at least not a fish), there shouldn't be a ton of 6's in his range. Of those possible hands, it's likely that only A6, 66, 56s, and 67s would call the flop c-bet. Given the small number of 6's that fit his range / action, I think flushes are a bigger concern in this spot.
....... Even though you have seen that the villain isn't afraid of bluffing, I think calling here will lose money in the long run. Once we get to the river, we have only invested about 25bb. We would have to call 50bb hoping for a split pot. After the rake, we would literally be calling 300 to win about 145. Villain would have to be bluffing 70% of the time or more for this to be profitable. Given our relatively small investment so far I think we need to find a fold.
**Sorry if the math is a bit off**
 
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