$600 NLHE 6-max: TT on button vs reg in CO

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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$600 NL HE 6-max: TT on button vs reg in CO

For some reason, this hand history seems to have been eaten by the system so I'll have to do this by memory:

I have the black tens on the button. It's folded to the CO, a 19/17 reg who opens fairly wide in later positions, and he makes it $18. I flat (I could say more about the decision to flat vs 3-betting, but it's not really germane to the point I want to discuss). His stack is $600 and I have him covered.

More on villain: He's pretty good. He has an annoying habit of telling other players how bad they are (which especially pisses me off when it's true), but his tendency to be the table captain doesn't really negate the fact that he's a decent player. He plays a really solid game when he's fresh, but when he plays longer sessions he starts to tilt and will start to overthink things and get overly creative. This hand happened fairly deep into the session.

Flop is 9-4-2, two spades. Pot is ~$43. CO bets $33, I call. He folds often to flop raises, which makes me not want to raise.

Turn is a red five. Pot is $108. CO checks to me. I bet $55 with the intention of checking back the river unimproved. CO check/raises to $140. Pot is now $303, he has $409 behind.

His c/r% is 7% for the turn, and that's over >3k hands.

The fact that he's deep into the session makes my turn decision both easier and more difficult. I mean, early in the session very few hands would make sense for him to have, since I think that checking sets is a serious mistake here and checking overpairs and then check-raising them only makes sense if you intend to fold to a raise (or I'm super-spewy, which I'm not and he knows that). So early in the session I'd give this credit for being a flushdraw more often than a strong hand just because I don't see many strong hands being played this way.

Later in the session, however, I think he's check-raising a bit more erratically. Flushdraws, certainly, but he may also be getting fancy with a set, or a hand like AA, or turning 66 into a bluff. Probably some random air-hands like QJ might decide to try to push me out, too. So while his range is certainly WIDER now that he's played for long, I'm not necessarily sure it's also WEAKER on average.

Thoughts on turn bet (which I think is correct in principle, although sizing can be discussed), and what to do about his check/raise is what I'm after. Feel free to comment on flop line and how the rest of the hand should play out if I don't fold to his turn c/r.

If someone wants me to break down the pros and cons of 3-betting on the button, I can do that too but it's not necessarily in the scope of this thread.
 
NineLions

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I tend to enter your threads with trepidation, Fredrick, other than to ask questions, like,

What did you put the percentages at for his reaction to your turn bet? Something like

60% fold
30% call
10% raise?

I'm also impressed by your read of how he plays as session go in length, but then I don't play often enough and move around sites and levels so I never generate enough hands to pick up something like that.


I think that you're right in saying the turn bet is correct in principle; for some reason it stands out to me as being standard enough that if I were him I might want to play back against it on occasion, but by saying that all that does is widen his range slightly and doesn't make it correct to assume that in one specific instance. It also points out my tendency to outlevel myself.
 
F Paulsson

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I tend to enter your threads with trepidation, Fredrick, other than to ask questions, like,

What did you put the percentages at for his reaction to your turn bet? Something like

60% fold
30% call
10% raise?

That's an excellent question, and although it's largely a "feel" thing, my best feeler-guess was "at least half" of his range will fold, and "9-x, 66-88, flushdraws will call" and "very rarely check raise"

If I had to put numbers on that, I think your 60/30/10 guess is pretty spot on. It would make an interesting exercise to try to estimate his turn range and break it down into folding/calling/raising (and seeing how his raising range changes depending on his bluffiness).


I'm also impressed by your read of how he plays as session go in length, but then I don't play often enough and move around sites and levels so I never generate enough hands to pick up something like that.

It's one of those things I can now pick up on after ditching more than half the tables I used to play. I mean, it's not as extraordinary a read as it may sound like; I think this is true for many regulars (most, probably) but I happened to have seen him get way out of line once before and noted that he must have been playing for a long time when that happened, and this session I sort of noted the same thing.

I think that you're right in saying the turn bet is correct in principle; for some reason it stands out to me as being standard enough that if I were him I might want to play back against it on occasion, but by saying that all that does is widen his range slightly and doesn't make it correct to assume that in one specific instance. It also points out my tendency to outlevel myself.
Yeah, my range for betting the turn is pretty wide. Most of the hands I check back on the turn are A-x hands, I think, where I think I have decent equity versus his range but not his calling range. I think his checkraise will be a profitable bluff versus my range, though not necessarily versus this particular hand.
 
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His range is very polarized between sets, A3 and semibluffs (Ax spades, KQ spades, etc.). He's shoving all of it on the river, so....idk, call and call off a blank? maybe shoving is best.
 
S93

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Doesnt this depend alot on how he views you?
Surly this is a great bluff spot from him vs some one that floats alot(especialy since this hand plays out like clasic float situation, CovsBtn on a baby flop),so the question is are u floating alot here, and does he know it?
Also the size of your bet makes it cheapish to bluff raise.

I guess his raise sets him up nicely for a pot size river shove but i agree with Baudib his range should be pretty polarized.

1) Is he prown to big river bluffs?
2) How does he percive you? You float alot? fold to turn c/r?






Oh and i actualy like a flat here prf since even if we get in some tough spots we got position on some on with a tendency for FPS and a wide steal range.
 
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baudib1

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you know i was thinking this would be an interesting way for villain to play AA. I don't think he has any 1 pair hands that you beat so maybe this is a fold.
 
Z

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Although I like flatting small - mid pairs for implied odds, , I 3 bet TT here a large percentage of the time from the button, simply because I am 3 betting CO opens with a ton of hands OTB, so to not include monsters like TT is terrible for meta purposes.

As played (a flat) you haven't defined your hand, which makes postflop a little more difficult, but that's fine we'll just adjust.

Flop is obviously standard

Turn peels and villain checks. A bet is certainly standard, but I prefer to increasing my bet sizing to a larger bet of 3/4 pot as opposed to the less than 1/2 pot you opted to bet.

- If villain has overs, I don't think he's peeling for 1/2 or 3/4 the pot
- If Villain has a flush draw, I don't think he's folding to either bet = we gain more value
- If villain has a mid pocket pair he's probably check calling either bet = we gain more value
- A larger bet lets villain put YOU on a flush draw easier (most people would tend to bet more on the semi bluff with higher hopes of taking it down now)

As played before betting you should have asked yourself how you would respond to a raise. IMO if the answer was fold then check behind and call down the river. If it was fold bc he'd only CR monsters but will c/c tons of hands, then the bet/fold is fine. If it's somewhere in the middle it gets cloudy.

Is villain the type to give up on the river when shown resistance or continue to pounce? If he won't fire a river shell empty, the turn is an easy call, since the river will be very easy to play. If he's trickier, again it gets cloudy.

His turn c/r bet sizing seems very strange to me though. You underbet the turn (less than .5 pot) and he like 2.5x's your raise. If you call the pot would be at 391 and he'd have 409 left in his stack....plenty to push you off the river....eh I guess I changed my mind here. Since he could raise larger to like 180 and leave the pot at 471 with 369 in his stack, enough for an all in river bluff to shove you off without being an underbet.... i was initially gunna say this raise seems sized to push you off on the turn if you have nothing but leaves enough for him to put you to the test big on the river but i dunno.... it's weird bc your most likely hand is a flush draw so raising this small seems weird to me, unless he's trying to get you to 3 bet semi bluff him with a big hand... or he could figure you for a float and is trying to bluff you off cheap if you have no hand.... or of course he could have AA and make the small cr bc he is trying to get called by one pair hands.

Overall (Im rambling) I think most villains are likely to just keep betting their big hands rather than c/r turns with them (unless they have some read that either 1- you spew a lot or 2- you float a lot but fold to 2nd shell, but will bet if checked to). C/Rs also show big strength and can lose value out of their hands. I dunno, I probably flat the raise with the intent of calling a brick river if I label villain as tricky enough to continue witht he majority of his bluffs on the river. If villain shows up with a set or AA or something I'll make note of it
 
F Paulsson

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I'll return with some more thoughts on this hand tomorrow or so, but I want to say this:

The only way I'm 3-betting this hand preflop IP is if I'm willing to get it in versus a 4-bet. Versus this guy, I'm not. I'm not folding out anything better, and not getting calls by many hands that I beat. While it's true that I'm folding out a bunch of hands that technically have odds to play me (KJ etc) I think my average postflop EV versus his range is higher than value of turning TT into a bluff preflop.

I'm not quite as trigger happy with 3-bets preflop as most other regs, though, so I don't need to include TT in my value range in order to make it work. In position, QQ+ does the trick just fine for me, especially since I've put some thought into balancing my bluffs and have my preflop 3b/4b/5b ranges down pretty pat versus regulars. Not that there's much money to be made preflop from regulars anyway.
 
T

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Thats the pretty hefty analysis by zybomb. Good read.

Anyways, i'm sure OP your super seasoned at your levels and probably have some history with the villian which makes this not so much a standard read/play.

I'd believe that he actually has a hand here that beats TT. If I were him, I believe that you flatted him PF with a decent range and would set up a float if you'd hit air.

The float is clearly not the greatest of flops for anyone.

He was probably checking turn to induce a float bet from you, but figured your turn bet was small for a "float" bet, and hence his oversized raised on the turn leading to a river over shove.

I don't know I guess my analysis is just another way of looking at his perspective.

Or he could have a FD/air and trying to bet you out =D
 
F

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I'll return with some more thoughts on this hand tomorrow or so, but I want to say this:

The only way I'm 3-betting this hand preflop IP is if I'm willing to get it in versus a 4-bet. Versus this guy, I'm not. I'm not folding out anything better, and not getting calls by many hands that I beat. While it's true that I'm folding out a bunch of hands that technically have odds to play me (KJ etc) I think my average postflop EV versus his range is higher than value of turning TT into a bluff preflop.

I'm not quite as trigger happy with 3-bets preflop as most other regs, though, so I don't need to include TT in my value range in order to make it work. In position, QQ+ does the trick just fine for me, especially since I've put some thought into balancing my bluffs and have my preflop 3b/4b/5b ranges down pretty pat versus regulars. Not that there's much money to be made preflop from regulars anyway.

CO vs BTN hands are like BB vs SB hands. SOOO much of it is meta game.

You don't 3 bet him often, but how often do you call?
How are the blinds playing atm? Are they squeeze happy and would you call a big PP to back raise with ?
On the flop , how often does he give up/cbet on this type of board?
How often do you bluff raise or semi bluff raise. How wide is your value range?
How often do you float?
What is the difference in frequency in his 2nd barrel compared to 1st ? Does he shut down more often on "bad" cards like the 5 ?
What is your fold to turn bet %?
How light you call down three barrels and as such how light he is going to send them down.
Does he manipulate his bet sizing to make turn and river bets a certain % of the pot for when he has a bluff or value hand?

When you are having battling regs in common spots like this. You should be looking for patterns in play. That is the difference between and average reg and a tough reg. It sounds like you have played alot with this guy and the reasons he could be taking this line are varied and definitely affected by your actions (or inaction) as much as his.

Without a better read from the above type of information, I would treat this spot like a river c/r. I give them credit first time but I make a note and I certainly call the second if it is done in the near future. The psychology of the average person in these types of spots is that they don't like to do something weird like this as a bluff first time since it is out of their comfort zone.

The logic is sound too, people want to see what you are doing this with so they call down lighter , If you had a big hand you would of raised flop the vast majority of the time. If you check through then he wouldn't of gotten 3 streets anyway and is more likely to get a river bet called.
 
F Paulsson

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You don't 3 bet him often, but how often do you call?
This guy specifically? 22-JJ, 76s+, QTs+, KQo, A2s+ (because of the BB, see below, default is ATs+) and AJo+.

How are the blinds playing atm? Are they squeeze happy and would you call a big PP to back raise with ?
SB was a nit and BB was a huge fish. That's a fairly major reason for me to flat TT rather than 3-bet it (since I don't want to push him out).

On the flop , how often does he give up/cbet on this type of board?
His average cbet% was 88%, I think. I don't see any reason to believe this board would make him deviate much from his strategy, although perhaps an argument could be made for it being slightly lower on average.

How often do you bluff raise or semi bluff raise. How wide is your value range?
On this flop, versus this opponent, my bluff range is fairly narrow. QT, 33, 55 or so. I'll raise every flushdraw versus him.

How often do you float?
Pretty often. I tend to peel with medium PPs, nines and probably KsQx as well.

What is the difference in frequency in his 2nd barrel compared to 1st ?
First is 88%. 2nd barrel was high, but can't remember how high. 50%+.

Does he shut down more often on "bad" cards like the 5 ?
Couldn't say.

What is your fold to turn bet %?
45%.

How light you call down three barrels and as such how light he is going to send them down.
Pretty light. I'm much more prone to calling two barrels than three, though.

Does he manipulate his bet sizing to make turn and river bets a certain % of the pot for when he has a bluff or value hand?
No.

Without a better read from the above type of information, I would treat this spot like a river c/r. I give them credit first time but I make a note and I certainly call the second if it is done in the near future. The psychology of the average person in these types of spots is that they don't like to do something weird like this as a bluff first time since it is out of their comfort zone.

Well, now you have the information. :)
 
F

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This guy specifically? 22-JJ, 76s+, QTs+, KQo, A2s+ (because of the BB, see below, default is ATs+) and AJo+.


SB was a nit and BB was a huge fish. That's a fairly major reason for me to flat TT rather than 3-bet it (since I don't want to push him out).


His average cbet% was 88%, I think. I don't see any reason to believe this board would make him deviate much from his strategy, although perhaps an argument could be made for it being slightly lower on average.


On this flop, versus this opponent, my bluff range is fairly narrow. QT, 33, 55 or so. I'll raise every flushdraw versus him.


Pretty often. I tend to peel with medium PPs, nines and probably KsQx as well.

First is 88%. 2nd barrel was high, but can't remember how high. 50%+.

Couldn't say.


45%.


Pretty light. I'm much more prone to calling two barrels than three, though.


No.



Well, now you have the information. :)

The information above is needed to find out if he is doing this as a specific counter strategy to your game plan and style. Since your main aggressive outlet against him seems to be using position to float I think this increases the likelyhood that this could be a bluff. Since you are calling down pretty light and his betting stats are really wide (88% is massive, 50% of that continuing on the turn is just asking for it a turn bluff shove) Him not continuing to barrel towards you seems silly from just a value perspective.

This board and turn card are also good for him because not many of your hands hit this so he can make you fold alot of your turn bet range. Just from his stats and agression I think he is trying to get you to fold a hand more then getting value. Espicially since the 5 would get you to fold so little of your value range here to a second barrel while a c/r could get you to fold A4 and some 9x's.

Since your game against him hinges alot around floating him and that this is one of the stronger hands you would have in this situation I would call twice and take a note.

If he shows up with an actual hand here , I would recommend raising his turn second barrels more since his range is weak to begin(80%f, 50%) with and if he is taking out value hands to c/r with then it should be instantly profitable with most semi bluffs until he adjusts (which is a hard thing to do against this sort of change).
 
GeorgeCostanza

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Flop is 9-4-2, two spades. Pot is ~$43. CO bets $33, I call. He folds often to flop raises, which makes me not want to raise.

I honestly have to say that if there is any spot that you made a mistake, it is probably here IMO. (You played the hand very nicely though)

I would have raised his $33 bet on the flop to somewhere around $90.

The villian could very easily have been making a c-bet with over cards (QJ, AK). Also, if he folds to your raise I'd be happy to take down the $100 pot right there. If he calls or re-raises he most likely has an overpair.

I really can't see him check-raising an overpair there, is it possible he made a set of 5's? Eh, not likely.

LMK your thoughts and if you think my read of the situation is off, but I think he either had a set or you got bluffed my friend :D
 
Sean Pilgrim

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I wish I could afford $3/$6 NL HE...
 
WVHillbilly

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If you call the turn ch/r how often would you estimate that this player will bluff shove a scary river?
 
Z

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I honestly have to say that if there is any spot that you made a mistake, it is probably here IMO. (You played the hand very nicely though)

I would have raised his $33 bet on the flop to somewhere around $90.

The villian could very easily have been making a c-bet with over cards (QJ, AK). Also, if he folds to your raise I'd be happy to take down the $100 pot right there. If he calls or re-raises he most likely has an overpair.

I really can't see him check-raising an overpair there, is it possible he made a set of 5's? Eh, not likely.

LMK your thoughts and if you think my read of the situation is off, but I think he either had a set or you got bluffed my friend :D

what are we really hoping to do by raising the flop except for blow up the pot against hands that crush us and fold out hands that we beat? If the sole purpose of a raise is to defend against 6 outs, ist usually bad. Were in position, a flat is clearly better especially since we can reevaluate our situation depending on his turn play. It also allows him to continue bluffing us. Weve played a small pot pre by just calling, why blow it up now
 
GeorgeCostanza

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what are we really hoping to do by raising the flop except for blow up the pot against hands that crush us and fold out hands that we beat? If the sole purpose of a raise is to defend against 6 outs, ist usually bad. Were in position, a flat is clearly better especially since we can reevaluate our situation depending on his turn play. It also allows him to continue bluffing us. Weve played a small pot pre by just calling, why blow it up now

Yes I do agree that math is on your side. But I'm of the school that I would rather win a small pot than lose a big one.

Another thing that bothers me is the fact that he check-raised the turn, the card was seemingly a blank, and generally you dont check raise overpairs on the turn (maybe he was being cute? :confused: )

Say that he has 72o just for argument sakes (Obviously not), and he bets every street heavy and an overcard comes off on the river and he shoves, what are you going to do? I guess the answer to that question depends on how well you trust your reads and what not.

Pocket tens could get really messy, and I'll take winning a $100 pot with them all day.
 
Z

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Yes I do agree that math is on your side. But I'm of the school that I would rather win a small pot than lose a big one.

Another thing that bothers me is the fact that he check-raised the turn, the card was seemingly a blank, and generally you dont check raise overpairs on the turn (maybe he was being cute? :confused: )

Say that he has 72o just for argument sakes (Obviously not), and he bets every street heavy and an overcard comes off on the river and he shoves, what are you going to do? I guess the answer to that question depends on how well you trust your reads and what not.

Pocket tens could get really messy, and I'll take winning a $100 pot with them all day.

Raising doesn't guarantee winning you the pot. It usually will win you the pot when you have the best hand (but not any more $) and will inflate the pot otherwise when you don't. It also allows you to get 3 bet bluffed by a flush draw or other weaker hands.

If you raise and your opponent calls what's your plan for the turn? how about the river? what weaker hands are you trying to get value out of? What better hands are you trying to fold?
 
GeorgeCostanza

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Raising doesn't guarantee winning you the pot. It usually will win you the pot when you have the best hand (but not any more $) and will inflate the pot otherwise when you don't. It also allows you to get 3 bet bluffed by a flush draw or other weaker hands.

If you raise and your opponent calls what's your plan for the turn? how about the river? what weaker hands are you trying to get value out of? What better hands are you trying to fold?

Obviously it doesn't lol His range is so large prefolp that I think it's the best way to find out exactly how good your tens are. If he calls and bets the turn, then you are most likely beat.

Yes you would obviously open the door for a 3 bet, and i agree that's messy, but it's something I willing to risk and would have to analyze the situation based on my opponent.

What hands am I trying to fold? QJ, AK, KQ, somewhere in that range.

Like i said, math is on your side, but I think anything like this depends largely on the reads you have on your opponent, because your basically guessing on every street with a hand like 10's
 
Deco

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Obviously it doesn't lol His range is so large prefolp that I think it's the best way to find out exactly how good your tens are. If he calls and bets the turn, then you are most likely beat.

This will fold all we beat and inflate the pot against all that beats us.

As for the hand. urrgh its a tricky one.
Folding aint great as this bet size was asking for it. when we combine that your gunna float in position alot and that this guy has FPS we have to at least call.

Shoving is pretty sick as this guy aint gunna call us with a flush draw and there are gunna be more combos of overpairs and sets.

So ye I call. Expect a very difficult river decision though.
 
S93

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This will fold all we beat and inflate the pot against all that beats us.

As for the hand. urrgh its a tricky one.
Folding aint great as this bet size was asking for it. when we combine that your gunna float in position alot and that this guy has FPS we have to at least call.

Shoving is pretty sick as this guy aint gunna call us with a flush draw and there are gunna be more combos of overpairs and sets.

So ye I call. Expect a very difficult river decision though.
Shouldnt we have some sort of plan for the river before calling?
I think we have to call a shove on most rivers if we call the turn, we can probably fold pretty comfortable to a shove on a As/Ks river but other then that can we really justify calling the turn with a hand with almost no shoot of improving just to fold to a river shove?
 
Deco

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Shouldnt we have some sort of plan for the river before calling?
I think we have to call a shove on most rivers if we call the turn, we can probably fold pretty comfortable to a shove on a As/Ks river but other then that can we really justify calling the turn with a hand with almost no shoot of improving just to fold to a river shove?

I didn't want to speculate on the river because its so player dependant.
Have we been running him down? Has he been winning or losing the session (likelihood he's tilting). Does he read well enough to realize were representing alot of strength here (TT is literally the bottom of our range) or is he the type of spewbox who sees that shoving is a PSB and that a scare card just hit so he's gunna lash it in.

We certainly don't have to call a shove. His line is far from unconceivably strange and we have shown alot of strength. If the rivers a blank I think am finding the fold button most the time.
 
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Just wondering fp, not saying its a bad thing, but whats the reasoning for the bet size? It seems to be a sort of middle ground of betting purely for value in the same size youd bet your bluffs, set etc, and a small bet to induce a raise. Just kinda not achieving either to full effect. This might be your standard bet size though.
 
F Paulsson

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It's a "cheap showdown" bet. I can't bet two streets for value because I don't think I beat his calling range on average, and I don't think a large turn bet (3/4ths or near potsized) will get called by a range that I beat either. So I bet a smaller amount that I think will get called by nines, various other pairs that I can beat and that folds out overcards that have some chance of outdrawing me.

If I call the turn, I'm calling any non-spade river (and any bet-size, at that, including a shove).
 
BelgoSuisse

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From villain's perspective, cbetting flop and check-raising turn is a decent line with any hand that has some equity (flush draw, maybe just overcards) if you are out of line with your floats. But if that's true, it's probably a decent line with hands that beat you too. When I see that line, my first reaction is not to think about villain's card. My first reaction is to think that i probably have the image of a compulsive floater.

What are your percentages for calling the flop cbet and betting the turn versus missed turn cbet?
 
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