$600 NLHE 6-max: TPTK on 4-straight board in 3b pot

hackmeplz

hackmeplz

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Villain is regular, 21/18 with 8% 3bet.

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed)

CO ($1243.08)
Button ($739.20)
SB ($594)
BB ($655.05)
Hero (UTG) ($600)
MP ($666)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, A
Hero bets $18, 2 folds, Button raises to $54, 2 folds, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($117) Q, 3, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($117) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $75, Button calls $75

River: ($267) 5 (2 players)
Hero ? ($471 effective on the river)

b/f, b/c, shove, ch/c, ch/f? Sizing if I bet?
 
TylerN

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I'd bet what I thought TT JJ would call so something smallish. Any 7x or 2x that he's 3betting is cbetting the flop normally so I wouldn't be concerned about that at all
 
MediaBLITZ

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Well this got all messed up so you are going to have to do some damage control. No need to worry about that straight - it just doesn't play out that way, does it? Shove is really out of the question, don't you think? After all, what will call that shove? TPTK is an excruciating way to die.

Comes down to two options - check or bet.
If you check you better be damn well sure of what you are going to do with his action before you check. Will you call? Up to how much?
If you bet - are you wanting a call or are you wanting him to fold?

Bottom line - of the hands in his range you are ahead more times than not. Your biggest worry right here is AA, KK, QQ (nah) or a set. He checked the flop on a flush draw board. You think he would do that with a set or an overpair? Possible but he really shouldn't.
What about AK, JJ, TT, 99?

Even assigning this guy a very tight range, you are way ahead and should be value betting the river and anticipating a possible desperate 3-bet?

But the obvious - should have bet the flop.
 
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baudib1

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What kind of 3-bet range do you give him here vs. you UTG?
 
JOEBOB69

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river agg? if it's high i ch/c
 
danprince10

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Everyone has given you a different answer and sow ill I. I'm check calling any amount.
 
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Poker_play

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Do we know if villain checks aa or kk on this flop?

Im thinkin shov
 
JCgrind

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weeeeee i like analysing a real hand :)

i like jamming the river. i think a shove gets paid off here just as often as a half pot by his 88-JJ but if hes capable of bluff raising the river this is the optimal spot for him to do it imo- in which case i like betting like ~$90 and calling off anything
 
TylerN

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do you have stats on SB?
 
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nidal55

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check-calling seems very nice since a busted draw is there and you can bluff catch but betting is not so bad either as jj is the most possible holding for him (hes not craising for sure) and hes not folding to a half-pot bet.but the first looks a little better i guess.
 
acky100

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weeeeee i like analysing a real hand :)

i like jamming the river. i think a shove gets paid off here just as often as a half pot by his 88-JJ but if hes capable of bluff raising the river this is the optimal spot for him to do it imo- in which case i like betting like ~$90 and calling off anything

Not saying i dont like a shove, im still undecided but do you think people are going to be 3betting 88-TT here? I'd say most people are flatting 99 and lower so often you can pretty much count them out of his range in this hand probably similar for TT, and possibly even JJ depending on the reg but i'd keep JJ in and most of the TT's here.
 
TylerN

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Exactly where I was going as well with the SB ^^^^

Judging by stack size SB could be a fish and would make it really unlikely for him to be 3betting med pp's
 
JCgrind

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usually no. but im pretty sure OP is relatively LAG and 600NL regs betting 8% OTB are going to be doing it with some weird merged value range so i think its plausible in this spot.

i find it really hard to put villain on anything other than 88-JJ or like QJs though :s

EDIT: interesting poitn about SB haing 99bbs though. only just noticed that. hmm yeah that does change things. OP, SB stats?
 
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any reason not to bet the flop?

if villian bets the flop after you check, surely you have to call anyway? unless you were going for a check/raise? Just curious what your thinking was on the flop and why only 1 person mentioned the flop play.
 
TylerN

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Because the flop is standard and by donking out we take out all the air in villains range that's going to be cbetting this board?
 
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baudib1

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I don't mind checking the flop. I'd really like to know more about the guy and what his 3-bet range is going to be vs. hero's UTG range before really commenting. I think Tyler's response was really good if we assume his range is mostly TT/JJ type hands.
 
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Poker_play

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Wait wha...whats the big deal w stack size?

I know its less than full but just barely..hardly enough to label fish lol
 
TylerN

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Wait wha...whats the big deal w stack size?

I know its less than full but just barely..hardly enough to label fish lol

good regs have auto rebuy so yes it does matter
 
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baudib1

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I don't think auto topoff works well on Cake.
 
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Poker_play

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Ah wow ok.

I stil wouldnt overreact but might be worth a stat check then
 
TylerN

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if hes a good reg playing 600nl he likely knows that setting the preferences to 110bb to auto top up makes it work smoothly
 
TylerN

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hopefully OP comes back and helps all us struggling people out :)
 
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Poker_play

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Fu sorry I dont play 2nl and win millions of BB, wait 6 wks for a $5 fkn payout like u nits
 
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