[5NL FR] AA on paired board vs unknown

ajrobin

ajrobin

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This was the very last hand of a very succesful session. Villian has only been here 6 hands, but his stats (which i didnt really consider important during the hand due to sample size) were 30/8/3.5. After raiseing my standard and getting two callers i get into a tricky spot with a min raise on the turn. Are we scared of the 9 and lay this down there, or do we raise this up incase somethink like AK has hit?

SB: $14.23
BB: $1.18
Hero (UTG): $15.20
UTG+1: $9.95
MP1: $4.42
MP2: $10
CO: $2.77
BTN: $1.55

Pre-Flop: A
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A
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dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.15, 4 folds, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

Flop: ($0.50) 9
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9
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2
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(3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($2) K
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(3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, BTN folds, SB raises to $4, Hero..
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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You are toast here at least 75% of the time. Unfortunately you're getting 4:1 to call, which is greater than 3:1 (75%). I'd probably call this, and fold to a large river bet, calling a reasonable sized one.

But the main problem is the flop & turn bet sizing. I bet these pots a lot smaller, since its going to be hard to get value out of a hand other than trip 9's betting pot. We don't really wanna get all in here. So potting each street is pretty rough. Keep the pot smaller, and get to showdown.

So bet like $0.35 on the flop, and 65% of the pot on the turn. Mebbe raise a bit more preflop as well, since they'll call larger raises at microstakes.
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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The possibility of a 9 is real but a small part of the SB range. So the decision is fold or shove, IMHO. With the pot size any reraise will be for most of your stack anyway so AI would be better. You can't call here since SB will most likely give you another tough decision on the river. On that kind of a flop, a lot of players will float your Cbet. So SB's range with the raise is going to be pretty wide as you have to include bluffs on gutshots AK, KQ, KJ, K9, J9, T9, QJ, QT, 22+ You are 75% to win on this range. I think I would have to shove here.
 
Jillychemung

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I'd probably call this

I don't know how much I like a call here. ISTM that a call will really narrow our range to JJ+, AK. Opponents will not put us on 99 with our bets and won't have us on any other hand w/ a 9 due to the preflop raise. The river can bring a lot of dangerous cards, any spade, K,Q,J,T and SB has a wide range of bet sizes that we couldn't call, I'd say, anything 1/2 pot or larger.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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The possibility of a 9 is real but a small part of the SB range. So the decision is fold or shove, IMHO. With the pot size any reraise will be for most of your stack anyway so AI would be better. You can't call here since SB will most likely give you another tough decision on the river. On that kind of a flop, a lot of players will float your Cbet. So SB's range with the raise is going to be pretty wide as you have to include bluffs on gutshots AK, KQ, KJ, K9, J9, T9, QJ, QT, 22+ You are 75% to win on this range. I think I would have to shove here.
Whoa, shove or fold? Um, WA/WB? Shoving folds all the hands we beat, and when we're called, we're almost always in trouble. Also, small blind is 300 big blinds deep! I'm not exactly thrilled about stacking off for 300 big blinds on a paired board with a single pair hand.

Hell, with the right read, I could easily fold this thing. It's a pretty marginal call to call this min-raise IMO. I think it goes call ~ fold > shove
 
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Jillychemung

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I guess I'm just too aggressive for these lower levels. Thinking about it more the opponents line could really be an attempt to induce a shove, which I would have fallen right into.

Since it was going to be your last hand of the session, fold and sigh :rolleyes:
 
ajrobin

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But the main problem is the flop & turn bet sizing. I bet these pots a lot smaller, since its going to be hard to get value out of a hand other than trip 9's betting pot. We don't really wanna get all in here. So potting each street is pretty rough. Keep the pot smaller, and get to showdown.

I think you hit the nail on the head here. Looking back I realise ive done the worse thing i could have done, built up a big pot in a WA/WB hand. I think it was a case of liking my hand way too much and not taking the time to consider the board. Ill post results tommorrow
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I think you hit the nail on the head here. Looking back I realise ive done the worse thing i could have done, built up a big pot in a WA/WB hand. I think it was a case of liking my hand way too much and not taking the time to consider the board. Ill post results tommorrow
And in situations like these, I've been doing a lot of checking behind at micro limits. Players will slowplay trips on this board EVERYTIME. However, they're also almost always folding 33-88 to more than 1 bet. So betting the turn really only gets value out of TT and flush draws.

Maybe at higher limits, where they realize that you could be value-betting a lower pair, or bluffing more often on the turn should we be betting the turn. But at micros, I only really bet the turn here if there's a draw out. In this case there is, so I like a bet that's small enough to keep the pot manageable, but large enough to give a flush draw incorrect odds to draw.
 
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