[5nl] Flop odds calculation, open ender+overpair

eNTy

eNTy

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Ok so recently Stick was kind enough to teach me the basics of odds calculation. When it is a fold or a call based on the odds to hit versus pot odds.

I came across this hand and I just wanna run through the calculation here to see if I do everything ok, unfortunately I didn't do the whole calc. during play but I did think a really long time. So here goes.

PokerStars Game #21091891503: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2008/10/10 20:05:10 ET
Table 'Hermione III' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: LuísBrandão ($9.28 in chips)
Seat 2: 04 SSSS ($4.24 in chips)
Seat 3: jeremycall85 ($1.93 in chips)
Seat 4: Entiteit ($5 in chips)
Seat 5: Armani123333 ($4.85 in chips)
Seat 6: kimmie2424 ($4 in chips)
Seat 7: tp 107 ($5.34 in chips)
Seat 8: besevitez ($19.09 in chips)
Ptolomeo will be allowed to play after the button
LuísBrandão: posts small blind $0.02
04 SSSS: posts big blind $0.05

Holecards:
Dealt to Entiteit [
club5.gif
spade5.gif
]
FOLD jeremycall85
RAISE Entiteit , $0.10 to $0.15
FOLD Armani123333
FOLD kimmie2424
CALL tp 107, $0.15
CALL besevitez, $0.15
CALL LuísBrandão, $0.13
CALL 04 SSSS, $0.10

Flop: (Pot: $0.75)
[
diam3.gif
spade4.gif
spade2.gif
]
CHECK LuísBrandão:
CHECK 04 SSSS:
BET Entiteit , $0.15
CALL tp 107, $0.15
CALL besevitez, $0.15
FOLD LuísBrandão
RAISE 04 SSSS, $0.65 to $0.80


My outs: 4(6) + 4(A) + 2(5) + 8(flush outs) = 18
Is this correct cause I forget if you're supposed to count the 6s and As once or twice ? I'm assuming once.

Pot odds: 2/(.65) = 3.07

Now to know if I should call or fold my odds to hit should be < than my pot odds. But how do I calculate my odds to hit here ? (break even odds) with a combined hand like overs and set and open ender etc.
 
Stick66

Stick66

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OK. First of all, you can't count the flush out since there are only 3 visible and it takes 5. Also, keep in mind that your "overpair" is so small that it probably won't stay that strong on it's own through the river.

Next, you could have 10 outs (4 Aces, 4 Sixes, 2 fives) to improve. But you probably shouldn't count all those. Here's why...

There's a thing called "counterfeiting". It means that a card that improves your hand could also improve someone else's even more. So if we look at your situation, we see some of that. Any spade could make someone a flush and a 5 could make someone a straight. So you have to do what is called "discounting" some of your outs. Take the As, 6s, 5h, & 5d and make them worth less than 4 since some outs might hurt you. Depending on your reads on your opponents, you could count those 4 outs as only 2, 1, or even 0.

So anyway. Let's count them as 1 here. You'd have 7 outs. That = 6-1 odds to make your hand (AKA break-even odds). The pot is 2.00 and it is .65 to call. That's about 3.1-1 pot odds. That means so far, it wouldn't be a good call.

Now if it was closer, you might be able to justify a call if you thought one or both of the guys behind you would call the extra .65 also. Or you could call if you thought there was a really good chance of stacking the raiser if you hit your hand. All this "maybe" and "might" stuff is part of what's called "implied odds". I mentioned it before in our chat, but didn't want to confuse you.

Hope that helps. Might seem confusing right now, but it'll get easier through practice.
 
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eNTy

eNTy

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OK thanks for explaining. So it's actually not as straightforward.
I think I get everything you said just one minor question, why do you in this case count those 4 outs as 1 and not as 0 ? And does it make much difference ?
 
Stick66

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OK thanks for explaining. So it's actually not as straightforward.
I think I get everything you said just one minor question, why do you in this case count those 4 outs as 1 and not as 0 ? And does it make much difference ?
I just picked "1" for the example. Like I said above, it depends on your reads on your opponents and maybe even other things. But yes, counting them as 0 (AKA not counting them at all) is the safest way to do it.
 
Dwilius

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This is a strange hand to be talking about outs. With four other players to the flop you could already be behind a made straight, like Stick said two of your straight cards could make flushes...if you hit the set, you'd need to fill up to get good action.
Not really a good hand to use as an example, I don't think. Its more about deciding what opponents have here, and with so many to the flop, that's hard to do. Part of guesstimating implied odds is, are you likely to get action from worse hands when you hit?
 
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