Hi,
I don't think your hand is a 'bad' hand but the board is quite dangerous and needs some respect. More I think you've got youself in a bad position. You have top pair, with a gutshot and backdoor flush so certainly not a disaster if you proceed.
Likely
hands:
Wouldn't have thouht there's aa or kk out there, since there wasn't any reraise but you never know so can't rule it out yet. A very quick scan at some others...
AK, QQ ,JJ are possibles, as is AQ. AJ would be very loose.
TT, against some is possible but doubt it, due to your raise.
Other boradways look unlikely to me but you may get someone call with them suited.
I always say to myself that even bad players get good
or bad hands and can play them badly so I wouldn't rule anything till a later street. This is the initial start point I use to determine peoples hands.
My main point is this: you can't simply determine other players hands from only their preflop action. Just the range so you're going to have to proceed further to find out if your hand is good or not. Your hand is a decent hand and although you need to tread carefully, it is too good to just give up on.
Your big problem, however, is your position in my opinion. In a way, your squeeze strategy would have been better used if used against a hand different category than you've got, such as 7c6c. Since it would be:
1. Easier to get away from in early position,
2. Would either hit the flop hard or not. If it did hit, you'd also have the benefit of thought that it
probably missed the others. Im not suggesting playing 7c6c out of position but more like pointing out that your hand and position are the things giving you the headache. Infact I hate playing AQ in
any position. I've had huge domination problems with this hand and lost a lot of money due to it with AK. I certainly try my best not to
initially get into a situation where Id be in early position in a big pot with two callers.
However, since youre in it.
Firstly I'd be thinking do I want to be in the hand or not. Checking with the intention of just folding is not out of the question. You may feel that your fancy move has gone the wrong way and just want out. Cut your losses.
If not and you think its winnable w.r.t. your opponents.. this would be the way I'd go..
You can't check here in my opinion since you may well be ahead and need to charge a drawing hand at least for the flush. I think if you check in your position you're in an even tougher spot to make your next decision if you get raised a lot behind you. Since their bet could be inkoked from them thinking you've shown weakness and they have to bet. Most players would at least suspect the c-bet here. The only way I could think of justifying a check here is if you've checkraised a couple of times in the game and your opponents are cabable of suspecting this is a check raise.
I personally would bet for both information and protection. You may be able to get away with about over 1/3 of the pot, but personally I would bet just less than the pot. This isn't something I like to do in general, especially out of position, for the pot commitment probs later. But if you bet a lot less than the pot I think that if you get a caller, the other may also be tempted to call as well. Getting this amount will limit pot
odds. By betting this amount you're going to know how serious these players are.
If you're raised youre out of the hand.
If you are called, then you're going to have to re-assess the situation with all your new information. But you could always attempt to check that from the turn if its looking like a nightmare.
On the turn, I reckon you're going to know how much of a mess you are in.
Hope thats not to convoluted and relatively easy to follow.
A
A
