5NL (6-max): River bet from weaker player, 3 overs.

Villian is 33/12/1 over around 50 some hands.

-Flop aggression factor is .75, turn is even lower, then the river aggression is 5.00.

Likes to min-raise preflop and also after the flop. Have seen him show down AKo after min raising preflop, then basically checking it down. Pot was between him in BB and SB (only two players).

1) Am I getting good enough odds to call?

2) Is my turn action okay?


Stacks:
* SB with $2.65
* BB with $16.86
* UTG with $5.23
* MP with $2.76
* CO with $4.03
* BTN with $8.57




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to BTN:7♦ 7♠
* * Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * CO raises $0.05 to $0.10
* * Hero raises $0.20 to $0.30
* * 2 players fold.
* * CO calls [$0.20]
* * Total folds this street: 4
* * Potsize: $0.67
Flop:
* * 9♠ 8♦ 5♥
* * CO: checks
* * Hero bets [$0.30]
* * CO calls [$0.30]
* * Potsize: $1.27
Turn:
* * 5♦
* * CO: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * Potsize: $1.27
River:
* * K♠
* * CO bets [$0.40]
* * Hero...

Edit: I have been extremely aggressive throughout, raising in position almost every chance I get.

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Likminutz said:

Villian is 33/12/1 over around 50 some hands.

-Flop aggression factor is .75, turn is even lower, then the river aggression is 5.00.

Click to expand...

With only 50 hands recorded, post-flop stats are pretty meaningless. Especially street by street.

I don't really like to cbet this flop. We have a hand with some but not great showdown value, the flop does not connect with our perceived 3bet range so we can't expect a lot of fold equity, especially when we cbet less than 50% of the pot.

Once you cbet as you did, i'd probably fire a large second barrel. Small cbet large second barrel is a very strong line with great FE.

I probably call the river, but i do think you're beat a vast majority of the time. Price is just too good.

IMO if you strong C bet this flop villian will probs lay down here or if you double him on the turn he will lay it there! He probs has two overs like AK/KQ or something like that and would let them go i feel!

Thats what i have found so far at 5nl many players are so weak post flop and if you double them on this kinda board with your 7 7 they'll fold on one street.

Also pre flop did you think about limping here on the button ? just an option here would this be ok do you think??

BelgoSuisse said:

With only 50 hands recorded, post-flop stats are pretty meaningless. Especially street by street.

I don't really like to cbet this flop. We have a hand with some but not great showdown value, the flop does not connect with our perceived 3bet range so we can't expect a lot of fold equity, especially when we cbet less than 50% of the pot.

Once you cbet as you did, i'd probably fire a large second barrel. Small cbet large second barrel is a very strong line with great FE.

I probably call the river, but i do think you're beat a vast majority of the time. Price is just too good.

Click to expand...

Understood. At what volume of hands to postflop stats become more reliable? 250, 500, 1,000+?

Jurn8 said:

IMO if you strong C bet this flop villian will probs lay down here or if you double him on the turn he will lay it there! He probs has two overs like AK/KQ or something like that and would let them go i feel!

Thats what i have found so far at 5nl many players are so weak post flop and if you double them on this kinda board with your 7 7 they'll fold on one street.

Also pre flop did you think about limping here on the button ? just an option here would this be ok do you think??

Click to expand...

I guess I didn't think about this, I realize a weakness I have is being aggressive for the sake of having position and just being aggressive.

Honestly, I do not know my motivation at that exact time for raising preflop (I forget who the other players were at my table)...his min raise would have to be a really weird attempt to steal blinds so I have to give him some credit for an okay hand, therefore I'm not sure he ever folds to my 3bet on the button.

However, cold calling leaves room for the next 2 players to limp in as well, meaning I probably have to hit my set to ever win this pot at showdown. By raising I can get the hand HU. If I am an underdog I have a better chance of winning against one player than against 4. Does this logic make any sense?

My only wonder is if cold calling then hitting my set w/ 3+ players has a greater EV than getting this hand HU against a more passive player.

Likminutz said:

Understood. At what volume of hands to postflop stats become more reliable? 250, 500, 1,000+?

Click to expand...

It depends on which stat and on the player's style.

In the pop up windows of you HUD you should be able to see on how many occurrences each stat is based. Should give you an idea of its accuracy

Likminutz said:

Understood. At what volume of hands to postflop stats become more reliable? 250, 500, 1,000+?



I guess I didn't think about this, I realize a weakness I have is being aggressive for the sake of having position and just being aggressive.

Honestly, I do not know my motivation at that exact time for raising preflop (I forget who the other players were at my table)...his min raise would have to be a really weird attempt to steal blinds so I have to give him some credit for an okay hand, therefore I'm not sure he ever folds to my 3bet on the button.

However, cold calling leaves room for the next 2 players to limp in as well, meaning I probably have to hit my set to ever win this pot at showdown. By raising I can get the hand HU. If I am an underdog I have a better chance of winning against one player than against 4. Does this logic make any sense?

My only wonder is if cold calling then hitting my set w/ 3+ players has a greater EV than getting this hand HU against a more passive player.

Click to expand...

Here probably flatting or raising would be ok depending on the players. However its costing you less money to get into the hand if you flat also i think it would be better maybe to be in a multiway pot when you hit a set because your more likely to get paid off.

However raising here may not work because 7's arent a great PP because they're less likely to win as overs so you either have to hit a set or them to be part of a straight which is very unlikely. However if they were 9's or 10's then maybe i would consider a 3 Bet here because they would have more of a chance of winning as overs.

Just My opinion mate + you have to be aggressive your vpip should be within around 5 of your PFR

Now I have never played 5nl 6 max (or anything below 50nl for that matter) but a 3bet here is my line almost always. You have position here and will win a lot more hands than hitting sets being in position. a min raise is also usually weak(or AA) and you might just win it right there or on the flop. With that said you gotta fire a real cbet(.45-.50) to take it down. I probably check the turn here though, I think we are usually winning here but would like to get to s/d since I think we have quite a bit of s/d value. (belgo why dont you think there is solid s/d value here? you put him on stricky PP8+ or what?

Also does perceived 3bet range mean anything here? are people even paying attention and if so why doesnt this flop not hit a button cbet? I mean there are betting but any pp8+ "hits" this flop as well as some middle sc. I dont know maybe I shouldnt be analyzing 5nl in depth but I cbet this, just for more.

Checking is fine for pot control, although with the small cbet you could probably fire a second here. I call the river bet as well, a crying call that i expect to lose but too good of odds here considering your weak line so far.

My stats personally are around 28/25/6 or something to that effect if anyone cares

I realize now that c-betting this amount with this kind of hand on this flop eliminates nearly no hands with my image, and if I do c-bet it should be more.

If anyone cares I did call on the river, he showed J10.