re: Poker & 5NL (6-max): River bet from weaker player, 3 overs.
Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse
With only 50 hands recorded, post-flop stats are pretty meaningless. Especially street by street.
I don't really like to cbet this flop. We have a hand with some but not great showdown value, the flop does not connect with our perceived 3bet range so we can't expect a lot of fold equity, especially when we cbet less than 50% of the pot.
Once you cbet as you did, i'd probably fire a large second barrel. Small cbet large second barrel is a very strong line with great FE.
I probably call the river, but i do think you're beat a vast majority of the time. Price is just too good.
Understood. At what volume of hands to postflop stats become more reliable? 250, 500, 1,000+?
Originally Posted by Jurn8
IMO if you strong C bet this flop villian will probs lay down here or if you double him on the turn he will lay it there! He probs has two overs like AK/KQ or something like that and would let them go i feel!
Thats what i have found so far at 5nl many players are so weak post flop and if you double them on this kinda board with your 7 7 they'll fold on one street.
Also pre flop did you think about limping here on the button ? just an option here would this be ok do you think??
I guess I didn't think about this, I realize a weakness I have is being aggressive for the sake of having position and just being aggressive.
Honestly, I do not know my motivation at that exact time for raising preflop (I forget who the other players were at my table)...his min raise would have to be a really weird attempt to steal blinds so I have to give him some credit for an okay hand, therefore I'm not sure he ever folds to my 3bet on the button.
However, cold calling leaves room for the next 2 players to limp in as well, meaning I probably have to hit my set to ever win this pot at showdown. By raising I can get the hand HU. If I am an underdog I have a better chance of winning against one player than against 4. Does this logic make any sense?
My only wonder is if cold calling then hitting my set w/ 3+ players has a greater EV than getting this hand HU against a more passive player.