50nlFR; AA vs beluga

Villain is a 50/5.6/2 fish over a tiny sample. First hand we played I raised pf with 77, flopped a set, double barreled him and he folded the turn. Second one I chased a draw and made a failed donkbluff on the river when I missed. Otherwise I've been tag.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP2: $51.75
CO: $61.95
Hero (BTN): $59
SB: $35.20
BB: $56.70
UTG: $98.45
UTG+1: $25.10
MP1: $96.75

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (BTN)
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) 4 7 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

Turn: ($10) 8 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.25, SB raises to $16, Hero ...

...and if we have the Ah?

so gross... what his turn AF, and turn c/r stats?

i maybe fold this...

only ~20 hands, don't think those stats would have normalized yet

I call this and seriously consider folding if he bets the river as well. Enough people do this with flopped top-pair (woo, slowplay!) and some do it with the naked flush ace.

With the flush ace, I play it the same, except the glorious all-in that follows on the river when I invariably hit my flush. I don't see myself folding quite yet in either case, and I'd be hard pressed to see what good would come out of raising.

Fugly. Fish has flushie IMO. Probably something like J10. Call and check behind on river.

If you had Ah, I would still do the same thing, unless (like FP says) you suck out on the river.

This sucks, you have a decent read in that he can fold to a double barrel. He chk/rasies here with a scarey card. He has sets, flushes here a lot of the time. I don't see the point in calling b/c he only has ~$16 left so this is going in on the river no matter what imo.

It's a fold when you get raised on the turn and without any history.

If you had the Ah folding wouldn't be bad either since a lot of the time you're drawing to 7 outs (14% to hit) so you're not even getting odds, although I'd usually call and either hope he doesn't fire the river and we're ahead, or try to hit.

Jagsti said:

This sucks, you have a decent read in that he can fold to a double barrel. He chk/rasies here with a scarey card. He has sets, flushes here a lot of the time. I don't see the point in calling b/c he only has ~$16 left so this is going in on the river no matter what imo.

Click to expand...

I don't think that's necessarily true. But it's true that we're effectively shortstacked (which I missed, thanks for pointing it out), and he might feel compelled to bet the river with his entire range in which case we're perhaps not getting a good enough price to call.

That said, given that we're playing with shorter stacks, I really think you should have gone for bigger bets on the flop and the turn, and given yourself a no-brainer when he checkraised the turn. I think it's also worth pointing out that his aggression factor - 2 - is hardly peanuts when considered together with his 50% VPIP (albeit over a small sample). This is a guy who bets and raises a lot postflop. I'm not comfortable laying this down.

How tiny is this sample? I'm assuming you wouldn't post the numbers or call him a fish if it were only a few hands.

Assuming we can have reasonable confidence in the numbers...

With Ah, I'm shoving the turn. Without the heart, I'd probably just call, and then call any bet if no heart comes on the river. I probably don't value bet (or maybe a tiny sucker bet) if he checks. If a heart comes I fold.

Being a fish, I'd put his range at any pair+ or big draw. You can beat 86, 85, any pair plus a heart, A2 or A5 with the Ah, maybe even the bare A or K of hearts (float or donk call on the flop), wacko bluffs, and probably some more hands I'm missing. I shove with the Ah because I expect to be well ahead of even his all-in calling range. Those few outs against possible monsters really add up. You'd have 16 outs against two pairs, 9 outs against straights, 8 outs against sets, and 7 outs against flushes.

But my overall thinking is this: if the stats are legit and he is a big fish, then don't fold a strong hand. I think AA is strong enough even on a somewhat dangerous board like that one.

Total on the session was only 25 hands, but his play was pretty indicative of a fish.

I pitched the hand and just hate looking him up vs a ch-c/ch-r line as it's almost always a legit hand. I doubt he floats me OOP and gets that ballsy. Not to say I like folding, but I just really hate calling