50NL Overpair OOP

Stacks:
* UTG+1 with $8.75
* MP1 with $50.50
* MP2 with $50.55
* CO with $50.25
* BTN with $141.65
* SB with $52.20
* BB with $49.25
* UTG with $95.30




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to UTG:Q♠ Q♣
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * Hero raises $1.25 to $1.75
* * 1 players fold.
* * MP1 raises $4.25 to $6
* * 5 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$4.25]
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $12.75
Flop:
* * 8♣ 4♠ 9♦
* * Hero: checks
* * MP1 bets [$8]
* * Hero calls [$8]
* * Potsize: $28.75
Turn:
* * J♣
* * Hero: checks
* * MP1 bets [$18]

Villain is 16/14/infinite over 144 hands. No real history with him before this. Pretty much figure I played this horribly on every street. Is this AK often enough to continue with the hand?

I don't see him three-betting you with a smaller pair or A/Q. That means he probably doesn't have a set.

A/A and K/K are what we're fearing at this point.

The big problem is that you checked the flop. That sorta tells him "My A/K missed" and with aggression factor like that he's going to raise that apparent weakness.
Had you opened, you'd have a lot better info on the strength of your hand. Even doing a check/raise on the flop would have made our decision easier.

I'd normally just fold and scold myself, and lick my wounds, but his stats... 15/14/infinite? When he plays he plays hand. There's a good chance you're best here. But by the time this had is over he'll be stacking and you'll have a hard decision to make.

If I were in your shoes I'd fold unless I specifically saw him be this aggressive on every street in earlier hands.

I think I would probably lead out on the flop about a potsized bet to see if hes really interested in continuing with the hand. A decent size checkraise on the flop here would commit over half of your stack and at that point I think you would have to play for stacks if he reraises you allin. If a decent tag 3bets you preflop with AK or AQ here and whiffs the flop he's going to be betting almost every time if you check. If you lead out for a potsized bet he's mostly going to through away these hands rather than play a game of chicken against you or try to draw to overcards for a high price. If they raise your flopbet you can generally assume they have a pretty good hand because they're going to be committing themselves.

SavagePenguin said:

The big problem is that you checked the flop. That sorta tells him "My A/K missed"

Click to expand...

no it isn't and no it doesn't. villain's the one who 3bet preflop and OP just called underrepresenting his hand/trying not to push out the hands he crushes. it's completely natural and standard to check to the last aggressor, regardless of holding. in fact i'd need a specifically good reason to lead flop

a flop checkraise all-in/enough to commit yourself is good if you think he'll go broke with JJ/TT. if not, you can probably c/c and then c/f this card because i don't think he's double barreling AK often here and one of the main hands you might've been beating, JJ, just overtook you

Your question, "Is this AK often enough to continue with this hand?"

I don't understand the 16/14/infinite? I'm assuming preflop, postflop, and raise/aggression? Over 144 hands. Even if I'm off a bit, your saying the history you show has villain TAG.

Given the line so far I am leaning towards AK. Villain is a good player if he has the control not to push harder with his AA/KK. The vast majority of AA/KK holders that reraise to $6 preflop will not be able to only bet $8 on that flop. And then they definitely won't be able to bet only $18, when the J hits on the turn. Most would be pushing the turn, worried that you had to have a piece of the flop to call the $8 and now a J hit, allowing a straight and flush draw.

To me this is more a bad AK, firing a c-bet, and now deciding to fire a second shot because you have showed weakness all along. Villain figures if you had a set or an overpair you would have bet or check raised by now.

combuboom said:

a flop checkraise all-in/enough to commit yourself is good if you think he'll go broke with JJ/TT. if not, you can probably c/c and then c/f this card because i don't think he's double barreling AK often here and one of the main hands you might've been beating, JJ, just overtook you

Click to expand...

What he said; really nothing to add.