$50NL hand analysis

Ok, so I was sitting in my $50NL game yesterday after about two hours this hand came up.

Hero (MP) - $100
Villain (SB) - $50

2 callers infront of me, and I raise it to $2.50 with [9c][9s].
Villain raises to $5.50, limpers fold, I call.

Flop: [Ks][10c][4h]
Villain checks. I bet $6, he calls.

Turn: [7d]
Villain checks. I check.

River: [Qc]
Villain checks. I bet $15 (half pot).


Ok, so I put Villain on JJ at this point. I was playing some what TAG, but would raise in position very often. This hand was different though since their we're limpers and I raised 5xBB. His reraise confused me at first I put him AA KK and was ready to throw the hand away postflop, but he checked so I wanted to check it out.

Do you guys think I played this hand right? After the cards turned over I realized what I did wrong, but could I really have known this.

Villain shows: [Ah][Qs] - Pair of Queens
Hero shows: [9c][9s] - Pair of Nines

wouldnt say u played it wrong but maybe u should of bet the turn after he checked..if u were willing to bet the river then i would of bet the turn for sure when he checks...but i dont think u played it donkbad...jsut one of those hands..ya know..hehehehhe

Yea. Still looking for other opinions, but obviously might two plays that would of made me win were: bet the turn or bet the pot on the river. He sat there until his timer ran out on the river and then made the call. This is why I really put him on Jacks.

One thing I don't get it, why the hell would he raise with AQo from SB! He saw that I am aggressive player, I guess was trying to make a move, but he didn't even bet the flop. It just didn't make sense to me.

After the reriase preflop by him and also based on two overcards on the board I think you can assume your behind for your last action. ( you admit this too )

Based on this I do not like the bet on the river ( even if its the only way that you can win most the time) unless.

a) You have stats from poker traker to show he can lay down on the river, as not may players at 50NL can.
b) You have a good read on him in your notes.

To me you should minimise the pot ( eg check).

Yes - in Hindsight you could have asked the question again on the turn and if you had you would have won the pot. them the breaks.

The question you need to ask yourself is "why am I calling this re-raise preflop?"

if your answer is I believe I have the best hand right now? in that case you need to 3bet him preflop. If you are set mining then this is a pretty horrible call preflop. As you played it I think a check thru on river is pretty obvious play.

I would of either dumped the hand preflop or at least 3 bet him here.

I agree with caliban; after your flop stab, you're either well ahead or well behind so I like the turn check. But after he checks the river and lets you go to showdown without betting, I don't think you're likely to gain anything by betting the river. Maybe the JJ would fold, but I think there's too many hands you're ahead of that won't call, and too many that you're behind that will call.

I would definitely say you played it wrong. 99 is a very bad hand to play on the flop. You should've raised much bigger preflop to begin with, say to $5. If he calls, you know he's got pockets but not big ones, or AK AQ or high suited connectors. If he reraises you, depending on how big you either fold or call.

On the flop, TWO overcards, if he checks, you with late position should consider checking. But if you bet, he calls, then checks the turn, YOU HAVE TO BET OUT. Checking turn here shows him that you're weak and if he catches a card on river or even if he doesn't, you are more likely to lose the hand to a bluff.

So the answer is, raise more preflop. With overcards, if given a free card, consider taking it. If you fire one shot, make sure if he checked next street, fire another shot.

Thanks for the advice.

i'm not sure I would have raised to $5, that can also be a tell atleast i think someone has a mid pocket pair when they raise big like that pre... you have to fire another barrel on the turn and if he raises fold, NH... but if he has nothing he folds usually unless this guy was a complete calling station.

need reads. how often does he willfully play oop? does he squeeze play ever? etc.

There's been some terrible advice in this thread so far.

Your preflop raise is fine, Normally I make it 4xBB + 1BB for every limper, so that would be $3, but $2.50 is fine.

When he reraises, you need to call another $3, so you easyily have odds to setmine, plus with position, you can sometimes win the pot withough flopping a set.

The flop is interesting. If he just cbet, it would be an easy fold. His check can mean a few different things. IMO, these are teh 3 most likely explinations: 1) he could be slowplaying quite a few hands (AA/KK/TT/AK) 2) he could have made a play preflop realised he got called and given up. 3) He could have QQ/JJ type hand and realise theres not point betting this flop.

In all 3 spots, checking the flop is best. If he has a big hand, obv you dont want to bet. If he has missed, we're ahead, so no real need to bet, as he'll just fold. If he has QQ/JJ, he's probably going to call the flop bet.

On the turn, you have to presume you are beat, and even if he's not slowplaying, getting him to fold his mid-stregnth hand is too risky.

I like your reasoning on the river...his hand certainly looks like JJ (as it happens, JJ and AQ have pretty much the exact same value on this board). However, 1) you presumed you could push him off it...a big mistake to presume such a thing readless at these levels and 2) you forget what your hand looks like to villain. You look like you have a weak hand,and so I would just give up and check if I were you.